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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will Xbox Series X/S make it to 40 million?

 

Will it reach 40 million?

Yes it will 70 60.34%
 
No, it will fall short 46 39.66%
 
Total:116
Esparadrapo on 04 August 2024

If the sales continue with the trend of selling half of what they did in 2022 Q3 will be ~300K. The problem will come in Q4 if Microsoft doesn't deep discount all the units and releasing a new SKU I highly doubt it will be the case. It would be a giant middle finger to anyone that bought them at the advertised price. Moreso, the fire sale last year seemed geared towards getting rid of inventory more than a real effort to move units. Even with a bundled copy of BO6 the entrance price to play it would be far too high. To me, it seems that Microsoft has completely given up hardware and they don't want it hurting the division's results anymore in useless attempts at regaining market share. If they don't care the rest of the year why would they do in BF and holiday season?

TL;DR: Without external or internal factors swaying the current trend it will do 4.5~4.7M. Add Indy and BO6 and it will be around 5M.



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Mar1217 on 04 August 2024
XtremeBG said:
Norion said:

I think July should be at least close to 300k due to CF25 though it could get a bit tough during August-October. I do expect a holiday good enough to reach 5m or at least get very close since it sold a little bit better holiday 2023 than holiday 2022 cause December was up by quite a bit even though every other month that year was down so with how important holiday sales are to Xbox I expect they'll try to make sure the decline isn't that big for it then.

I think they already tried - with the announcement of the 3 new models, which brings nothing new to the table and with the prices they put, I don't think it will boost sales more than without them. Hopefully they have something new, hidden under their slave for the holidays. Price cut, by 100$ (since it's been 50$ every holiday) even temporary one, would greatly improve the sales, which will surely help it break the 5M.

Huh, didn't both model already where discounted by 100$ during last year's holidays ? I swear the Series X was sold at 399$ while the Series S at 249$ ? 

I think they'll prolly aim for those pricepoints again while the "new" models keep at the MSRP.



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Norion on 04 August 2024
XtremeBG said:
Norion said:

The lack of an exciting revision is a negative for sure since a significantly more powerful one would let them easily reach 5m. Something I think could help a bit is how huge 2025 is gonna be. It looks like it could be easily the biggest year of this console generation so perhaps some of the remaining people will finally upgrade to a current gen system this holiday in preparation for that.

If you talk about GTA6 i am still on the boat it will eventually release in the 2026, not 2025. Other than that, there will be great games for sure. If XBSX can hold onto 300k per month now till the holidays, and have a good holiday, it can have nice 5M year, and because of the good games coming out in near future alongside delayed launch of the next successor till 2027 let's say, the console can have slight drops only, to 4-4.5M next year and 4M in 2026, with 3.5M in 2027, reaching 40M somewhere around the launch of the new console, with even maybe 1 or 2M more squeezed out from it after the launch of the successor, but that remains to be seen. With the drops currently, by 1/3 per year, the things don't look quite so good. In the not so optimistic world, It may drop to 3M next year and the successor to launch with GTA6 in a bundle in 2026, giving almost no reason for new buyers of the XBSX for the GTA6, resulting in little to no boost, and making 2M in 2026 with finishing around 36/37M in total.

I think late next year or early 2026 could go either way for that. Xbox should have a strong lineup next year and combined with stuff like the probably first gen 9 exclusive COD game should help slow the decline so I think it dropping to 3M is very unlikely even if GTA 6 gets delayed into 2026. With it likely already having shipped over 30m finishing at 36/37m is completely off the table I'd say, they'd have to stop selling it by the end of next year for that to be possible considering it's only gonna be a few million away from that by the end of this year.



-Adonis- on 04 August 2024

I was thinking it would be above 40M but I'm not so sure now.



XtremeBG on 04 August 2024
Mar1217 said:

Huh, didn't both model already where discounted by 100$ during last year's holidays ? I swear the Series X was sold at 399$ while the Series S at 249$ ? 

I think they'll prolly aim for those pricepoints again while the "new" models keep at the MSRP.

Yes, they were.. at least for the Series X, I am talking about 100$ price cut also for the Series S, at least for the holidays. And talking in general for holiday offers, since almost every holiday the prices for XBOX are only slashed by 50$.



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method114 on 29 August 2024

I think it reaches 40mil but not 50.



Wman1996 on 29 August 2024
method114 said:

I think it reaches 40mil but not 50.

Yeah. Unless GTA VI causes a huge spike and Microsoft gives permanent deep discounts, 50 is getting tough. 



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Vorodroid on 30 August 2024

It depends on the launch window of nextgen system. Nevertheless, it will launch in 2026 at least (there was information that it could already appear in 2026). Even if next xbox launches in 2026 the current XS has a couple of years to gain at least 10 miilion to the 40+ mil number. It's possible to do that. But in terms of reaching more units sold (50-60 mil) it might be difficult to do that. If nextgen Xbox launches in 2027-2028 it may reach 50+ mil. Xbox Series won't have a Pro Version like Xbox One had so it changes a lot of things includind the duration of its life cycle. Xbox Series may launch earlier without Pro Version. 



Knitemare on 30 August 2024

I believe before the last decisions on Xbox quarters it could have reached. But after theyre pushing the new trend (going more for service sales) and sharing their exclusives with nintendo and Sony, it will greatly de-accelerate and wont be able to catch 40M sales...



                          

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Panicradio on 18 September 2024

@trunkswd

Some new estimations:

https://gamingbolt.com/xbox-series-x-s-worldwide-shipments-are-reportedly-at-28-3-million-units-as-of-june

Interesting. Of course, this is no confirmation.

But would put the sell-through data almost on point with my own calculations recently.

What do you think of this?

Last edited by Panicradio - on 18 September 2024