If the sales continue with the trend of selling half of what they did in 2022 Q3 will be ~300K. The problem will come in Q4 if Microsoft doesn't deep discount all the units and releasing a new SKU I highly doubt it will be the case. It would be a giant middle finger to anyone that bought them at the advertised price. Moreso, the fire sale last year seemed geared towards getting rid of inventory more than a real effort to move units. Even with a bundled copy of BO6 the entrance price to play it would be far too high. To me, it seems that Microsoft has completely given up hardware and they don't want it hurting the division's results anymore in useless attempts at regaining market share. If they don't care the rest of the year why would they do in BF and holiday season?

TL;DR: Without external or internal factors swaying the current trend it will do 4.5~4.7M. Add Indy and BO6 and it will be around 5M.

Huh, didn't both model already where discounted by 100$ during last year's holidays ? I swear the Series X was sold at 399$ while the Series S at 249$ ? 

I think they'll prolly aim for those pricepoints again while the "new" models keep at the MSRP.

I think late next year or early 2026 could go either way for that. Xbox should have a strong lineup next year and combined with stuff like the probably first gen 9 exclusive COD game should help slow the decline so I think it dropping to 3M is very unlikely even if GTA 6 gets delayed into 2026. With it likely already having shipped over 30m finishing at 36/37m is completely off the table I'd say, they'd have to stop selling it by the end of next year for that to be possible considering it's only gonna be a few million away from that by the end of this year.

I was thinking it would be above 40M but I'm not so sure now.

Yes, they were.. at least for the Series X, I am talking about 100$ price cut also for the Series S, at least for the holidays. And talking in general for holiday offers, since almost every holiday the prices for XBOX are only slashed by 50$.

I think it reaches 40mil but not 50.

Yeah. Unless GTA VI causes a huge spike and Microsoft gives permanent deep discounts, 50 is getting tough. 

It depends on the launch window of nextgen system. Nevertheless, it will launch in 2026 at least (there was information that it could already appear in 2026). Even if next xbox launches in 2026 the current XS has a couple of years to gain at least 10 miilion to the 40+ mil number. It's possible to do that. But in terms of reaching more units sold (50-60 mil) it might be difficult to do that. If nextgen Xbox launches in 2027-2028 it may reach 50+ mil. Xbox Series won't have a Pro Version like Xbox One had so it changes a lot of things includind the duration of its life cycle. Xbox Series may launch earlier without Pro Version. 

I believe before the last decisions on Xbox quarters it could have reached. But after theyre pushing the new trend (going more for service sales) and sharing their exclusives with nintendo and Sony, it will greatly de-accelerate and wont be able to catch 40M sales...

@trunkswd

Some new estimations:

https://gamingbolt.com/xbox-series-x-s-worldwide-shipments-are-reportedly-at-28-3-million-units-as-of-june

Interesting. Of course, this is no confirmation.

But would put the sell-through data almost on point with my own calculations recently.

What do you think of this?