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Norion on 04 August 2024
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XtremeBG said:
Norion said:

The lack of an exciting revision is a negative for sure since a significantly more powerful one would let them easily reach 5m. Something I think could help a bit is how huge 2025 is gonna be. It looks like it could be easily the biggest year of this console generation so perhaps some of the remaining people will finally upgrade to a current gen system this holiday in preparation for that.

If you talk about GTA6 i am still on the boat it will eventually release in the 2026, not 2025. Other than that, there will be great games for sure. If XBSX can hold onto 300k per month now till the holidays, and have a good holiday, it can have nice 5M year, and because of the good games coming out in near future alongside delayed launch of the next successor till 2027 let's say, the console can have slight drops only, to 4-4.5M next year and 4M in 2026, with 3.5M in 2027, reaching 40M somewhere around the launch of the new console, with even maybe 1 or 2M more squeezed out from it after the launch of the successor, but that remains to be seen. With the drops currently, by 1/3 per year, the things don't look quite so good. In the not so optimistic world, It may drop to 3M next year and the successor to launch with GTA6 in a bundle in 2026, giving almost no reason for new buyers of the XBSX for the GTA6, resulting in little to no boost, and making 2M in 2026 with finishing around 36/37M in total.

I think late next year or early 2026 could go either way for that. Xbox should have a strong lineup next year and combined with stuff like the probably first gen 9 exclusive COD game should help slow the decline so I think it dropping to 3M is very unlikely even if GTA 6 gets delayed into 2026. With it likely already having shipped over 30m finishing at 36/37m is completely off the table I'd say, they'd have to stop selling it by the end of next year for that to be possible considering it's only gonna be a few million away from that by the end of this year.