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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will Xbox Series X/S make it to 40 million?

 

Will it reach 40 million?

Yes it will 64 61.54%
 
No, it will fall short 40 38.46%
 
Total:104
Hiku said:
Pinkie_pie said:

Combined sales of PS3/360 is 170m. GTA 5 did 50m on PS3/360 with attach rate of 30%. Current PS5/series combined sales is around 90m . There's more hype for GTA 6 than GTA 5 because the thing is much bigger now and it's been over a decade since GTA 5. I'm predicting GTA 6 will also sell 50m on PS5 and xbox series.  Surely it can't sell 50m on just 90m consoles so I don't think all GTA fans already bought a PS5 or Xbox series.  Remember Xbox360 sold another 5m after GTA 5 came out and that's when they already had GTA 4. Also Xbox one came out only 2 months after GTA5 

Right but Xbox 360 was a massively popular console to the point where it was in the lead over PS3 for a while, and ended up sharing the market share with PS3 50/50 in the end.

How do you account for the difference in market share now when you estimate how many Xbox consoles specifically will be sold due to this game?

It's currently at 2:1 for PS5, and the way things are going it looks like that is expanding every month.
PC has also grown a lot since those days.

FYI, this isn't a prediction for whether Xbox Series will reach 40m from me.
I have no prediction for that, but some people wanted to discuss what you said in the Famitsu thread elsewhere, so we moved that discussion here.

You think GTA fans already bought a PS5 or xbox series so I just pointing out that seems very unlikely if we think about the attach rate or that 360 still sold 5m after GTA 5 released and that's when 360 was near the end of its lifespan. You would think every GTA fans already owned a 360 or PS3 before GTA 5 released since GTA 4 was there but no GTA 5 still gave PS3 and 360 a huge boost especially PS3. GTA fans aren't gonna buy a PS5 or xbox series just for GTA 5 remastered. But I seriously don't know where we going with this. Sure 360 was way more popular but I didn't say xbox series is gonna sell anywhere close to 360. Like just 40m. Even if GTA 6 only sell 40m this gen (which is just too low) xbox series would still sell at least 40m. 12m on xbox series and 28m for PS5. 30% attach rate for both would mean PS5 would only sell around 110m. I'm confident PS5 will easily reach 110m



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Leynos said:

They should raise the price of the Series X to 1000 bucks and the Series S to 700 in the US.  Nothing sells consoles better than price hikes.  The traditional way. How PS2 got to sell so many right?

Too cheap.

Price the console at 2500+ and declare it a luxury item and then it will start selling like hotcakes.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Leynos said:

They should raise the price of the Series X to 1000 bucks and the Series S to 700 in the US.  Nothing sells consoles better than price hikes.  The traditional way. How PS2 got to sell so many right?

Too cheap.

Price the console at 2500+ and declare it a luxury item and then it will start selling like hotcakes.

After all, Apple did understand something that we do not 🤔



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

Mar1217 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Too cheap.

Price the console at 2500+ and declare it a luxury item and then it will start selling like hotcakes.

After all, Apple did understand something that we do not 🤔

Needs fewer buttons and features. Make it as thin as an envelope. Change the connector with each model and release a new model every month. I want a 5 min battery life and takes me 45 minutes to type the word halo in the Xbox store.

Last edited by Leynos - on 03 August 2024

Bite my shiny metal cockpit!

@Norion With the recent adjustment of the XBSX globally, and especially those in US, I am little bit more inclined to accept it can reach little bit over 4M, although 5M is still a little high, but not impossible, if it continues the good pace with at least 300k per month. Another question is how hard will those figures be, cuz sometimes we see adjustments down sometimes adjustments up, so to me it's not 100% sure how exactly the system is doing every month, it was the same with the NSW, I remember last quarter when the reports were out the Switch was adjusted down, having months of almost 500k, then with this report it got adjusted up and those weaker months suddenly became almost 700k. (Of course I don't blame anyone here, I know the numbers are estimates, and are as accurate as possible, but just saying). So if with the next quarter reports XBSX is still at this pace that it is to the moment, and it keeps close to 300k per month with a decent holiday, I can see it doing around 4.5M, if the holiday is better than expected maybe even 5M. If sales again start to drop to the 200k monthly and the next adjustments drops the current numbers to the old levels of close to 200k, I would expect more close numbers to 4M than 5M for the year.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 03 August 2024

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XtremeBG said:

@Norion With the recent adjustment of the XBSX globally, and especially those in US, I am little bit more inclined to accept it can reach little bit over 4M, although 5M is still a little high, but not impossible, if it continues the good pace with at least 300k per month. Another question is how hard will those figures be, cuz sometimes we see adjustments down sometimes adjustments up, so to me it's not 100% sure how exactly the system is doing every month, it was the same with the NSW, I remember last quarter when the reports were out the Switch was adjusted down, having months of almost 500k, then with this report it got adjusted up and those weaker months suddenly became almost 700k. (Of course I don't blame anyone here, I know the numbers are estimates, and are as accurate as possible, but just saying). So if with the next quarter reports XBSX is still at this pace that it is to the moment, and it keeps close to 300k per month with a decent holiday, I can see it doing around 4.5M, if the holiday is better than expected maybe even 5M. If sales again start to drop to the 200k monthly and the next adjustments drops the current numbers to the old levels of close to 200k, I would expect more close numbers to 4M than 5M for the year.

I think July should be at least close to 300k due to CF25 though it could get a bit tough during August-October. I do expect a holiday good enough to reach 5m or at least get very close since it sold a little bit better holiday 2023 than holiday 2022 cause December was up by quite a bit even though every other month that year was down so with how important holiday sales are to Xbox I expect they'll try to make sure the decline isn't that big for it then.



Norion said:

I think July should be at least close to 300k due to CF25 though it could get a bit tough during August-October. I do expect a holiday good enough to reach 5m or at least get very close since it sold a little bit better holiday 2023 than holiday 2022 cause December was up by quite a bit even though every other month that year was down so with how important holiday sales are to Xbox I expect they'll try to make sure the decline isn't that big for it then.

I think they already tried - with the announcement of the 3 new models, which brings nothing new to the table and with the prices they put, I don't think it will boost sales more than without them. Hopefully they have something new, hidden under their slave for the holidays. Price cut, by 100$ (since it's been 50$ every holiday) even temporary one, would greatly improve the sales, which will surely help it break the 5M.



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Bofferbrauer2 said:

Sales are dropping off very hard.

The Wii U had monthly sales of between 100k and 200k outside of holidays and some big releases which pushed it past 200k at times. The last months (April and May) of the XS are just above 200k with 205k and 231k respectively, and sales are dropping further. Now compare those two months with those of the last 2 years for both the XS and the corresponding  Wii U years and you get this:

XS 2022 2023 2024
April 490006 373079 205310
May 442493 329767 231549
Wii U 2013 2014 2015
April 118290 111257 131836
May 88632 204932 135050

As you can see, the XS had a very healthy lead over the Wii U numbers in 2022, but sales are breaking away very fast. It still has a lead over Wii U sales but we're already down to less than double when before monthly sales were over 4 times those of the Wii U. Unless Microsoft can stop hemorrhaging sales then by end of the year the monthly sales will start to be very close to the one of the Wii U. it's only real saving grace right now is that XS holiday sales are about twice of those of the Wii U, which can make a difference, but we'll have to see what it can reach this coming holiday with the sales dropping so fast.

If that were to happen, then the XS has no chance of clearing the 40M mark. But if Microsoft manages to turn the ship around, then they will be able to reach 40-45M. I don't believe they will be able to sell over 45M as the decline has already been too strong imo to reach higher than that.

After so many years of buildup and teasing their 'greatest lineup of exclusives in Xbox history' every year, just for them to continue saving them for later and later, we are ostensibly heading for a period of 12 to 18 months from Q4 of this year onwards where several of their big hitters should actually be releasing for Xbox Series.

What bolstered Wii U sales to a certain degree from 2014 onwards was it's stellar lineup of games. Mario Kart 8 alone is likely the reason that console could even get past 10M units sold. That one game is so heavily tied with the sales of the Wii U, that without it the console probably doesn't even outsell the Gamecube, which may have forced Nintendo to act even sooner to replace the system if it wasn't given that breath of life from Mario Kart 8.

By that same logic, with all the games Xbox have been touting since even before the generation began, if not a single one of them can have a significant impact towards bolstering the currently flagging sales of Xbox Series, then it's likely they struggle to reach 40M for the generation which is nearly a third of their market share lost since last gen, which also lost roughly a third of it's market share from the previous gen.

It doesn't take a genius to realise if you're losing a third of your market share every single gen, it's not like you're simply bleeding out, it's more like you're ending each round with another limb cut off. So this is basically where the Xbox console finds itself--



XtremeBG said:
Norion said:

I think July should be at least close to 300k due to CF25 though it could get a bit tough during August-October. I do expect a holiday good enough to reach 5m or at least get very close since it sold a little bit better holiday 2023 than holiday 2022 cause December was up by quite a bit even though every other month that year was down so with how important holiday sales are to Xbox I expect they'll try to make sure the decline isn't that big for it then.

I think they already tried - with the announcement of the 3 new models, which brings nothing new to the table and with the prices they put, I don't think it will boost sales more than without them. Hopefully they have something new, hidden under their slave for the holidays. Price cut, by 100$ (since it's been 50$ every holiday) even temporary one, would greatly improve the sales, which will surely help it break the 5M.

The lack of an exciting revision is a negative for sure since a significantly more powerful one would let them easily reach 5m. Something I think could help a bit is how huge 2025 is gonna be. It looks like it could be easily the biggest year of this console generation so perhaps some of the remaining people will finally upgrade to a current gen system this holiday in preparation for that.



Norion said:

The lack of an exciting revision is a negative for sure since a significantly more powerful one would let them easily reach 5m. Something I think could help a bit is how huge 2025 is gonna be. It looks like it could be easily the biggest year of this console generation so perhaps some of the remaining people will finally upgrade to a current gen system this holiday in preparation for that.

If you talk about GTA6 i am still on the boat it will eventually release in the 2026, not 2025. Other than that, there will be great games for sure. If XBSX can hold onto 300k per month now till the holidays, and have a good holiday, it can have nice 5M year, and because of the good games coming out in near future alongside delayed launch of the next successor till 2027 let's say, the console can have slight drops only, to 4-4.5M next year and 4M in 2026, with 3.5M in 2027, reaching 40M somewhere around the launch of the new console, with even maybe 1 or 2M more squeezed out from it after the launch of the successor, but that remains to be seen. With the drops currently, by 1/3 per year, the things don't look quite so good. In the not so optimistic world, It may drop to 3M next year and the successor to launch with GTA6 in a bundle in 2026, giving almost no reason for new buyers of the XBSX for the GTA6, resulting in little to no boost, and making 2M in 2026 with finishing around 36/37M in total.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 03 August 2024

My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart / Quantity of Games