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Forums - Sales - Will Xbox Series X/S make it to 36 million?

 

Will the Xbox Series make it to 36 million?

Yes it will 13 36.11%
 
No, it will fall short 23 63.89%
 
Total:36
Norion on 13 January 2026
curl-6 said:
tak13 said:

More like a drowsy Wombat.

Come on, 1.5M at least in 2026.

Which is 125k per month.

What the heck with the low balling. 

Kyuu beat me to it, but a running theme of the last few years is that however low we set the bar, Xbox still finds a way to slide under it with things like price hikes, lack of supply, and constant self-sabotage. Every time it seems like Xbox can't tank any harder, it does.

The collapse is truly something. If someone went back to 2022 when it was selling fairly well and said that it would fail to reach 40m most people would laugh and consider the person a troll.



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XtremeBG on 13 January 2026
Zippy6 said:

By that logic it should have been much easier to sell closer to 4.8m than 7.5m, but the drop got much worse. It's best to look at it proportionally with percentages regardless of how high or low the numerical value is.

That would'be the case if it wasn't for the 2 pricehikes. Now this year, there is almost nothing worse left to happen to it, so such a drop shouldn't be on the cards.



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curl-6 on 13 January 2026
Norion said:
curl-6 said:

Kyuu beat me to it, but a running theme of the last few years is that however low we set the bar, Xbox still finds a way to slide under it with things like price hikes, lack of supply, and constant self-sabotage. Every time it seems like Xbox can't tank any harder, it does.

The collapse is truly something. If someone went back to 2022 when it was selling fairly well and said that it would fail to reach 40m most people would laugh and consider the person a troll.

So true, heck even when I made this thread in April 2024 some people thought it was silly to suggest it wouldn't reach 40 million, now less than two years later even 36 million is looking doubtful.



trunkswd on 13 January 2026
XtremeBG said:
Zippy6 said:

By that logic it should have been much easier to sell closer to 4.8m than 7.5m, but the drop got much worse. It's best to look at it proportionally with percentages regardless of how high or low the numerical value is.

That would'be the case if it wasn't for the 2 pricehikes. Now this year, there is almost nothing worse left to happen to it, so such a drop shouldn't be on the cards.

Unless there is another price hike I agree there shouldn't be such a dramatic drop this year.

2026 is the 25th anniversary of Xbox and all the big 1st-party IPs from Xbox Game Studios will be getting a new release - Halo Campaign Evolved, Gears of War: E-Day, Fable, and Forza Horizon 6. As of right now we know Halo will be available on PS5 day one, while Forza will release on PS5 sometime post-launch. No word yet on Gears or Fable on PS5.

If the report of Microsoft moving at least some Xbox production from China to Vietnam is true that will mean lower tariffs on Xbox consoles sold in the US. So maybe we will get either a price drop or temporary discounts later this year. That is if the increase in RAM prices aren't to the point of offsetting lower tariffs.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news, as well as posting random gaming content. Follow me on Bluesky.

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Norion on 13 January 2026
curl-6 said:
Norion said:

The collapse is truly something. If someone went back to 2022 when it was selling fairly well and said that it would fail to reach 40m most people would laugh and consider the person a troll.

So true, heck even when I made this thread in April 2024 some people thought it was silly to suggest it wouldn't reach 40 million, now less than two years later even 36 million is looking doubtful.

I was one of those people in fact lol. Back then for it to fail to reach 40m Microsoft would have to no longer do things like significant discounts for the holidays and in general completely give up on trying to sell it which I did not think was a realistic possibility but them announcing 4 ports to the PS5 a couple months earlier should've shown that was actually a realistic scenario.



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trunkswd on 13 January 2026
curl-6 said:
Norion said:

The collapse is truly something. If someone went back to 2022 when it was selling fairly well and said that it would fail to reach 40m most people would laugh and consider the person a troll.

So true, heck even when I made this thread in April 2024 some people thought it was silly to suggest it wouldn't reach 40 million, now less than two years later even 36 million is looking doubtful.

At one point the Xbox Series X|S was even the fastest selling Xbox console. Last time this was confirmed was for the end of June 2022. Going into this generation I thought the Xbox Series would have outsold the Xbox One due to all the acquisitions and having far more exclusives than any Xbox generation. Of course this when we thought Halo Infinite was a launch title, Starfield would have made its 2022 release and lived up to its hype, and Elder Scrolls 6 would have released before the next Xbox as an Xbox/PC exclusive. But alas game development is taking years longer now and Xbox is releasing more games on PlayStation and Nintendo.

Xbox as a publisher is bigger than ever, so I don't see them going anywhere even if Xbox hardware becomes more niche selling 10m-20m per generation.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news, as well as posting random gaming content. Follow me on Bluesky.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown | Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

curl-6 on 13 January 2026
Norion said:
curl-6 said:

So true, heck even when I made this thread in April 2024 some people thought it was silly to suggest it wouldn't reach 40 million, now less than two years later even 36 million is looking doubtful.

I was one of those people in fact lol. Back then for it to fail to reach 40m Microsoft would have to no longer do things like significant discounts for the holidays and in general completely give up on trying to sell it which I did not think was a realistic possibility but them announcing 4 ports to the PS5 a couple months earlier should've shown that was actually a realistic scenario.

trunkswd said:
curl-6 said:

So true, heck even when I made this thread in April 2024 some people thought it was silly to suggest it wouldn't reach 40 million, now less than two years later even 36 million is looking doubtful.

At one point the Xbox Series X|S was even the fastest selling Xbox console. Last time this was confirmed was for the end of June 2022. Going into this generation I thought the Xbox Series would have outsold the Xbox One due to all the acquisitions and having far more exclusives than any Xbox generation. Of course this when we thought Halo Infinite was a launch title, Starfield would have made its 2022 release and lived up to its hype, and Elder Scrolls 6 would have released before the next Xbox as an Xbox/PC exclusive. But alas game development is taking years longer now and Xbox is releasing more games on PlayStation and Nintendo.

Xbox as a publisher is bigger than ever, so I don't see them going anywhere even if Xbox hardware becomes more niche selling 10m-20m per generation.

Yeah back in like 2021-2022 I was one of those who expected the Series to outsell the Xbox One as it was off to a better start.

Then the years passed with hardly any big exclusives, underwhelming releases like Redfall and Starfield, then their games coming to PS/Nintendo, and it all fell apart.



Norion on 13 January 2026
curl-6 said:
Norion said:

I was one of those people in fact lol. Back then for it to fail to reach 40m Microsoft would have to no longer do things like significant discounts for the holidays and in general completely give up on trying to sell it which I did not think was a realistic possibility but them announcing 4 ports to the PS5 a couple months earlier should've shown that was actually a realistic scenario.

Yeah back in like 2021-2022 I was one of those who expected the Series to outsell the Xbox One as it was off to a better start.

Then the years passed with hardly any big exclusives, underwhelming releases like Redfall and Starfield, then their games coming to PS/Nintendo, and it all fell apart.

In a way it's kinda the opposite of the PS3 which had a rocky start but then started doing significantly better in 2009. What was your expectations for the Xbox Series when you made this thread? My guess is you thought it would make it but not by that much.



JRPGfan on 13 January 2026
trunkswd said:
XtremeBG said:

That would'be the case if it wasn't for the 2 pricehikes. Now this year, there is almost nothing worse left to happen to it, so such a drop shouldn't be on the cards.

Unless there is another price hike I agree there shouldn't be such a dramatic drop this year.

2026 is the 25th anniversary of Xbox and all the big 1st-party IPs from Xbox Game Studios will be getting a new release - Halo Campaign Evolved, Gears of War: E-Day, Fable, and Forza Horizon 6. As of right now we know Halo will be available on PS5 day one, while Forza will release on PS5 sometime post-launch. No word yet on Gears or Fable on PS5.

If the report of Microsoft moving at least some Xbox production from China to Vietnam is true that will mean lower tariffs on Xbox consoles sold in the US. So maybe we will get either a price drop or temporary discounts later this year. That is if the increase in RAM prices aren't to the point of offsetting lower tariffs.

MLID claimed MS didn't get ram early and couldn't stockpile/lock in big buys in time.
So a price increase because of doubling or more of ram prices, for xbox use, is likely to happen.
Meanwhile supposedly Sony has like a years worth of their needs, stockpiled ready to use (rumor).

There were rumors of people being fired, who were responsible for procurement of ram chip supplies, or ones that failed to make deals for production.
People storming out of meetings in anger because they couldn't convince sellers and such.

So even if some parts become cheaper, due to lesser self inflicted wounds (tariffs)....
the costs of those parts are likely peanuts compared to the ram/ssd cost increases.


"So maybe we will get either a price drop or temporary discounts later this year."

That is highly unlikely, imo. 



curl-6 on 13 January 2026
Norion said:
curl-6 said:
Yeah back in like 2021-2022 I was one of those who expected the Series to outsell the Xbox One as it was off to a better start.

Then the years passed with hardly any big exclusives, underwhelming releases like Redfall and Starfield, then their games coming to PS/Nintendo, and it all fell apart.

In a way it's kinda the opposite of the PS3 which had a rocky start but then started doing significantly better in 2009. What was your expectations for the Xbox Series when you made this thread? My guess is you thought it would make it but not by that much.

Yeah when I made this thread two years ago I was undecided, but thought it might just crack 40m cos I assumed MS would keep, y'know, actually trying to sell it with things like holiday deals. We also had no idea at the time of the upcoming price hikes due to tariffs and the RAM crunch.