40 million doesn't look likely anymore. Even in North America, it seems like they've been limiting the stock since after the holiday season of 2024.
I think Xbox is content for GTA VI to be sold largely to existing Series owners instead of trying to drive up hardware sales.
Considering the fifth Xbox doesn't seem like it's coming out until Holiday 2027 (as opposed to the earlier rumored Holiday 2026) and if that's the case, I think Series will whimper for the next few years. It could sell as low as 2 million a year.

Here are 2 charts, in EU and US, in EU vs the PS4 JP sales which finished at 9.7M, and in US the PSP which finished at 20M. Do you think it will match them or come short or barely surpass them ? (keep in mind that starting this year EU is almost flat, and US will be somewhat more flat than last year line, and even though it looks like easy to surpass them, those will be hard battles for the Xbox going forward).

@XtremeBG 

It could match those totals, but it will be very close. 

I am on the same position.

So if XBSX was 32M as of December 2024, let's add around 1.5M more for Europe, and around 4M for the US, that is 5.5M, anything else + Japan let's round up to 6M in total, 32+6 = 38M. That we should expect unless Microsoft do something for those sales to pick up at least a little.

The tariffs might be the nail in the coffin for 40m.

I made a thread years ago predicting that Series wouldn't make any traction vs Sony's PS5 when comparing PS4:XB1 sales ratios to PS5:Series Sales ratios. I can't find it anymore but...

XB Series is at 32.73 million units lifetime.
PS5 is at 75.28 million units lifetime.
That's 2.3 PS5s sold for every 1 Xbox Series Sold.
To make matters worse, the Series S isn't even in the same graphical ballpark as the PS5 or Series X. So, actual Series X vs. PS5 sales have got to be even worse.

By comparison, the sales ratio of XB1 to PS4 was 2.02 PS4s for every 1 XB1 sold.

27.5% drop in March YoY. It just keeps plunging and won't reach 40m without reversing the trend that has been continuing for over 2 years now.

Xbox 360's worst March: 397k (2007)
Xbox Ones worst March:  429k (2019)

Xbox Series March 2025: 264k

GTA 6 is basically the saving grace that might stop it from selling under 3.5m this year, and the 4.7m last year was already the worst non-launch year for a current Xbox on record.

Xbox will have a hard time to get much breething space this year. At least last year it only competed with PS5 and a an ancient Switch. Now it still needs to compete with PS5 but also with a Switch 2 that will have a lot of eyes on it. All this happening while their games get announced for PS5 and soon Switch 2 as well. No chance for it to reach 40 million i would say from those factors alone.

That is brutal.

But I really don't see the point in another Xbox generation unless it's a small market, boutique item they are aiming for.

As of right now, the brand is in the gutter in the eyes of the mainstream gaming public and it's only going to slide down lower.  Two years from now it will be looking up from the sewer.

But also in two years the Switch 2 will be entering it's Prime and Sony will be gearing up for PS6, and Microsoft want to enter that enviroment with a new system that will have zero exclusive games?  Why?  Anyone with any common sense can see how that will end.

I agree with almost all of that except the thing that we all have to differentiate is the "brand" in terms of gaming releases and revenue has never been better, they are very healthy because of their multiplatform strategy. Releasing on PC, PS5 and soon Switch 2 is what is saving them. The quicker they get rid of their flailing hardware and fully embrace the 3rd party route then the negative PR stigma of their hardware can stop holding them back and they will begin to function properly as the best 3rd party publisher with no downside.