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Forums - Sales - October 2023 VGChartz Estimates Thread - Worldwide Estimates Out Now

XtremeBG said:
curl-6 said:

8.5% down YOY for Switch is admirable given its advanced age.
It more than doubled the Xbox this month despite being more than twice as old.

Outselling XBOX, even double, in the years since 2012, isn't achievement at all.

Context is key, that being the massive age gap.

Playstation has often fallen short of double the Xbox in the years since 2012, while being the same age, so it's not a given.

Anyway, I didn't mean it as "this is a big achievement", it was just an observation.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 24 November 2023

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PS5 sold well but being down compared to the same month as the PS4 due to lack of stock in places like Japan for a few weeks isn't ideal. November and December should be really strong for it though. Mario Wonder helped the Switch not be down by that much and man Xbox sales are bad currently. Almost 50% down compared to what the Xbox One did. November and December need to be good or else things will be looking terrible for Xbox.



curl-6 said:

Context is key, that being the massive age gap.

Playstation has often fallen short of double the Xbox in the years since 2012, while being the same age, so it's not a given.

Anyway, I didn't mean it as "this is a big achievement", it was just an observation.

Playstation has done it every year, okay not since 2012, but since 2014 which in a 11 year gap is almost the same, so it hasn't often fallen short ;). In fact it has done it almost every year since this given period.

And yes, this is not a big achievement for PS either (maybe in the sense of outselling it's direct competitor double but still).

And yes I understand your context perfectly. It is achievement selling that good in 7th year, no doubt about that.

But beating Xbox one, and now Xbox series sales is not admirable, or achievement.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 24 November 2023

My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

Best holiday months / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

Great numbers and work. USA still having a closer gap for PS5 and Series than on any other market, also surprised by the increase of PS4 numbers.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

XtremeBG said:
curl-6 said:

Context is key, that being the massive age gap.

Playstation has often fallen short of double the Xbox in the years since 2012, while being the same age, so it's not a given.

Anyway, I didn't mean it as "this is a big achievement", it was just an observation.

Playstation has done it every year, okay not since 2012, but since 2014 which in a 11 year gap is almost the same, so it hasn't often fallen short ;). In fact it has done it almost every year since this given period.

And yes, this is not a big achievement for PS either (maybe in the sense of outselling it's direct competitor double but still).

And yes I understand your context perfectly. It is achievement selling that good in 7th year, no doubt about that.

But beating Xbox one, and now Xbox series sales is not admirable, or achievement.

Yes, because Switch is doing better than expect but it is achieving because Xbox is doing much worse than expected.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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Link to VGChartz article here.

PS5 vs Xbox Series X|S vs Switch Launch Sales Comparison Through Month 36

This monthly series compares the aligned launch sales of the PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X|S, and Nintendo Switch.

It should be noted the Nintendo Switch and Xbox Series X|S had a worldwide launch, while the PlayStation 5 launch was split over the course of two weeks. Also, the Nintendo Switch launched in March 2017, while the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S launched during the holidays in November 2020.

PS5 Vs. Xbox Series X|S Vs. Switch Global:

  1. Switch: 51,412,193
  2. PS5: 45,366,475
  3. XSX|S: 24,327,508

Through the first 36 months available worldwide the Nintendo Switch is ahead of the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S. The Switch is ahead of the PS5 by 6.05 million units and is 27.08 million units ahead of the Xbox Series X|S. The PS5 is ahead of the Xbox Series X|S by 21.04 million units.

The Switch has sold 51.41 million in 36 months worldwide, while the PS5 sold 43.37 million units and the Xbox Series X|S 24.33 million units.

Looking at the marketshare through 36 months, the Switch is in the lead. The Switch has a 42.4 percent marketshare, the PS5 sits at 37.5 percent, and the Xbox Series X|S at 20.1 percent.


PS5 Vs. Xbox Series X|S Vs. Switch US:

  1. Switch: 17,620,547
  2. PS5: 16,097,948
  3. XSX|S: 11,877,486

Through the first 36 months available in the US the Nintendo Switch is ahead of the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S. The Switch is ahead of the PS5 by 1.52 million units and is 5.74 million units ahead of the Xbox Series X|S. The PS5 is ahead of the Xbox Series X|S by 4.22 million units.

The Switch has sold 17.62 million in 36 months in the US, while the Switch sold 16.10 million units and the Xbox Series X|S 11.88 million units.

Looking at the marketshare through 36 months, the Switch currently leads. The Switch has a 38.6 percent marketshare, the PS5 sits at 35.3 percent, and the Xbox Series X|S at 26.1 percent.

PS5 Vs. Xbox Series X|S Vs. Switch Europe:

  1. PS5: 14,450,602
  2. Switch: 13,266,194
  3. XSX|S: 6,771,595

Through the first 36 months available in Europe the PlayStation 5 is ahead of the Nintendo Switch and Xbox Series X|S. The PS5 is ahead of the Switch by 1.18 million units and is 7.68 million units ahead of the Xbox Series X|S. The Switch is ahead of the Xbox Series X|S by 6.49 million units.

The PS5 has sold 14.45 million in 36 months in Europe, while the Switch sold 13.27 million units and the Xbox Series X|S 6.77 million units.

Looking at the marketshare through 36 months, the PlayStation 5 currently leads. The PS5 has a 41.9 percent marketshare, the Switch sits at 38.5 percent, and the Xbox Series X|S at 19.6 percent.

PS5 Vs. Xbox Series X|S Vs. Switch Japan:

  1. Switch: 12,174,833
  2. PS5: 4,522,592
  3. XSX|S: 523,692

Through the first 36 months available in Japan the Switch is ahead of the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S by a wide margin. The Switch is ahead of the PS5 by 7.65 million units and is 11.65 million units ahead of the Xbox Series X|S. The PS5 is ahead of the Xbox Series X|S by 4.00 million units.

The Switch has sold 12.17 million units in 36 months in Japan, while the PS5 has sold 4.52 million units, and the Xbox Series X|S 0.52 million units.

Looking at the marketshare through 36 months, the Switch currently leads. The Switch has a 70.7 percent marketshare, the PS5 sits at 26.3 percent, and the Xbox Series X|S at 3.0 percent.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news. Follow me on Bluesky.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

XtremeBG said:
curl-6 said:

Context is key, that being the massive age gap.

Playstation has often fallen short of double the Xbox in the years since 2012, while being the same age, so it's not a given.

Anyway, I didn't mean it as "this is a big achievement", it was just an observation.

Playstation has done it every year, okay not since 2012, but since 2014 which in a 11 year gap is almost the same, so it hasn't often fallen short ;). In fact it has done it almost every year since this given period.

And yes, this is not a big achievement for PS either (maybe in the sense of outselling it's direct competitor double but still).

And yes I understand your context perfectly. It is achievement selling that good in 7th year, no doubt about that.

But beating Xbox one, and now Xbox series sales is not admirable, or achievement.

Every year but not every month, as this is monthly sales.

If they were the same age I'd say it's no big deal at all given Xbox's tepid performance in recent years, the reason I personally consider this level admirable (Not amazing, just admirable) is cos Switch is not only old as fuck but also by this point probably running up against saturation point.



curl-6 said:
XtremeBG said:

Playstation has done it every year, okay not since 2012, but since 2014 which in a 11 year gap is almost the same, so it hasn't often fallen short ;). In fact it has done it almost every year since this given period.

And yes, this is not a big achievement for PS either (maybe in the sense of outselling it's direct competitor double but still).

And yes I understand your context perfectly. It is achievement selling that good in 7th year, no doubt about that.

But beating Xbox one, and now Xbox series sales is not admirable, or achievement.

Every year but not every month, as this is monthly sales.

If they were the same age I'd say it's no big deal at all given Xbox's tepid performance in recent years, the reason I personally consider this level admirable (Not amazing, just admirable) is cos Switch is not only old as fuck but also by this point probably running up against saturation point.

Who is talking about month sales ? And what is the difference ? You were originally talking about years not months. And even if it was months both PS and Nintendo has outsold xbox every day, week, month and year, if you want since the glory 360 days. And outselling xbox even twice if you want, is not achievement or admirable. And yes Switch is old and ? 3DS was old but was outselling xbox too. PS4 was old it did it too. PS3 was old and it was outselling 360 2:1 in its last years after 2013 too. Xbox is not criteria to compare for success or admirations or achievements. And in general every successfull console is strong even in it's saturation point and close to end of life. Even PS4 sold 14M in 2019. PS3 Sold what ? 12M in 2012 which is just 2M down from its peak. 360 too did very well in 2012. PS2 I will not even comment .. Maybe only the DS and Wii fell too quickly after their peak. Most of the other consoles have good years before their successor launches. Of course Switch passed most of them by sales units, however the trajectory is similar.



My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

Best holiday months / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

XtremeBG said:
curl-6 said:

Every year but not every month, as this is monthly sales.

If they were the same age I'd say it's no big deal at all given Xbox's tepid performance in recent years, the reason I personally consider this level admirable (Not amazing, just admirable) is cos Switch is not only old as fuck but also by this point probably running up against saturation point.

Who is talking about month sales ? And what is the difference ? You were originally talking about years not months. And even if it was months both PS and Nintendo has outsold xbox every day, week, month and year, if you want since the glory 360 days. And outselling xbox even twice if you want, is not achievement or admirable. And yes Switch is old and ? 3DS was old but was outselling xbox too. PS4 was old it did it too. PS3 was old and it was outselling 360 2:1 in its last years after 2013 too. Xbox is not criteria to compare for success or admirations or achievements. And in general every successfull console is strong even in it's saturation point and close to end of life. Even PS4 sold 14M in 2019. PS3 Sold what ? 12M in 2012 which is just 2M down from its peak. 360 too did very well in 2012. PS2 I will not even comment .. Maybe only the DS and Wii fell too quickly after their peak. Most of the other consoles have good years before their successor launches. Of course Switch passed most of them by sales units, however the trajectory is similar.

No, I wasn't talking about yearly sales. Why would you assume I meant yearly, in a monthly sales thread? And my point was never that it's "outselling" Xbox, but managing more than double. It's a significant difference in magntitude.

PS4 barely managed to double the Xbox One lifetime, so there were many points in its life when it wasn't hitting that threshold, and that's two systems the same age.

You don't have to find Switch's performance admirable, but I do.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 26 November 2023

curl-6 said:

No, I wasn't talking about yearly sales. Why would you assume I meant yearly, in a monthly sales thread? And my point was never that it's "outselling" Xbox, but managing more than double. It's a significant difference in magntitude.

PS4 barely managed to double the Xbox One lifetime, so there were many points in its life when it wasn't hitting that threshold, and that's two systems the same age.

You don't have to find Switch's performance admirable, but I do.

You were refering to " the years since 2012, " see your previous comment. Also what difference does it make how you outsell something ? barely ? seriously ? You either outsell it (in that case double) or not. PS4 did managed to do that. And Even with PS4 it was even harder, because xbox was direct competitor to it. Xbox is not direct competitor to Switch. Also With Switch and xbox they are both in different times in their lifes because they launched with half gen of a difference. And XBOX now is obviously in weaker position than in was in 2013 and even in the peak xbox one years. Of course it is way easier to outsell it double. But PS4 did manage to do that in a harder period for that to happen than now and then with a half gen difference and non direct competitor console. But even you want monthly PS4 did outsell it double and even triple some months. PS5 is now even selling quadruple in some regions .. As I already said, Outselling XBOX and even putting it in a conversation about sales, and saying something is admirable or achievement because of how it is sells compare to xbox is just not relevant for anything.

Barely ... Okay Switch outsold XB1 what ? with 10M more than the barely ? Is this how you calculate a success?

And I haven't said Switch performance isn't admirable. Just you are not comparing it to the right console. Every successful console has outsold xbox one and series and some of them have done it double. There is no such thing as barely. You either do it or not. 117M or 130M are both very good numbers and admirable and achievement. And 130M is not so much more than 117M to put barely on the PS4 and to boost Switch like it's passed 200M.

The conversation can go so quickly to the remarkable PS2 legs and it's sales at the same point in time the Switch is now, and trust me PS2 will burn Switch in the ground by long life sales, performance in late years, YOY sales if you want (from 16 to 16 year to year, and then 8 to 8 one year to the next). Don't get ahead of yourself or ahead of Switch's current sales at least. What about PS2 outselling xbox double in 2006 ? Last gen console to outsell double it's competitor next gen console.

Anyway this is another topic. The point is XBOX is not a factor for any console that want to be named successful. It is maybe only factor for a new console to check if it will become successful, or not, and I am refering to the 360, not XB1 or Series (for now).

And once again, yes PS4 did outsold it twice. Barely or not, it did. Which it means it is again admirable and achievement. And yes there was a months and weeks where it outsold it even triple.

Switch also has years and months were it hasn't outsold xbox twice. for example the first three years of it's life or if you want you can check month by month. If for the year the sales are not double than chances are there are many months that are not double as well. Of course you have to launch align them. It is obvious that Switch outsold XB1 in it's dying years even more than 2:1.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 26 November 2023

My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

Best holiday months / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2