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Forums - Sales Discussion - Sell-through expectations for Nintendo Switch in 2023?

 

Sell-through expectations for Nintendo Switch in 2023?

Less than 12 million 56 8.51%
 
12.0 - 13.4 million 24 3.65%
 
13.5 - 14.9 million 45 6.84%
 
15.0 - 16.4 million 145 22.04%
 
16.5 - 17.9 million 133 20.21%
 
18.0 - 19.4 million 107 16.26%
 
19.5 - 20.9 million 78 11.85%
 
21.0 - 22.4 million 34 5.17%
 
22.5 - 24.0 million 8 1.22%
 
More than 24 million 28 4.26%
 
Total:658

14.5 million. Still great for 6 years in, but another decline after the peak.
If Switch 2 launches in 2024 (especially the 1st half of the year), 2023 will probably be the last year Switch sells 10 million or above.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 144 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million)

PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

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Went with 15-16.4m. Switch sales are definitely winding down, and I think Switch 2 is Q1 2024, and if it is announced before the end of 2023 it could hurt Switch Holiday 2023 sales somewhat.



2022 will end up being about 20% down from 2021 and I expect a bigger drop this year so about 14m. The vast majority of voters think the drop will be either similar or smaller which is interesting.

Ashadelo said:

More than PS5 and XBS

Unless sales in Europe barely improve compared to last year I can't see a world in which the PS5 isn't number 1 this year.



I think the titles this year will manage to make the system for an above 15m Switches sold. Don't if it'll be much higher, but Tears of the Kingdom is a system seller like you don't get often and I do expect Nintendo to push one or two more titles this year which are gonna give a similar effect.



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

Without knowing whats coming, is really hard to know. I guess one title that makes total sense to launch this year is a proper 2D mario; maybe a brand new series, not the New super mario bros one. I can see nintendo expanding switch’s life with it. Maybe around 16M



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So according to a report to Bloomberg, Nintendo is actually planning to INCREASE Switch production in 2023 since demand is still supposedly high and that semiconductor shortages lowered Nintendo's sales in 2022.

I find it hard to believe that Nintendo is still stating that shortages are still the reason the Switch is dropping in sales in 2022/2023. In the U.S I see Switch's everywhere and you could get a switch with no problem, idk how the shortages are in Europe & Japan but based on what I've been hearing there isn't a dire shortage situation in those areas either, and I dont get how the Switch still in 2023 is dealing with shortages when its been the console more notoriously in more stock compared to Xbox/PS even in 2020/21 when the chip shortage was at its worse, even the PS5/SX are becoming readily available in 2023, seems odd Switch is still dealing with shortages. I guess its probably the ROTW dealing with the shortages the most.

So if this report is true, many of us could be wrong in thinking that sales dropped to 19M cause of demand.



javi741 said:

So according to a report to Bloomberg, Nintendo is actually planning to INCREASE Switch production in 2023 since demand is still supposedly high and that semiconductor shortages lowered Nintendo's sales in 2022.

I find it hard to believe that Nintendo is still stating that shortages are still the reason the Switch is dropping in sales in 2022/2023. In the U.S I see Switch's everywhere and you could get a switch with no problem, idk how the shortages are in Europe & Japan but based on what I've been hearing there isn't a dire shortage situation in those areas either, and I dont get how the Switch still in 2023 is dealing with shortages when its been the console more notoriously in more stock compared to Xbox/PS even in 2020/21 when the chip shortage was at its worse, even the PS5/SX are becoming readily available in 2023, seems odd Switch is still dealing with shortages. I guess its probably the ROTW dealing with the shortages the most.

So if this report is true, many of us could be wrong in thinking that sales dropped to 19M cause of demand.

This year is one where a hardware revision isn't unexpected, so if it's at least a somewhat meaningful revision, it's not unrealistic to result in a year that is flat or even slightly up in comparison to 2022. There are tens of millions Switch owners who have one since 3+ years and with no new Nintendo generation in sight, it becomes increasingly more likely that they'll be willing to upgrade, even if it's just a Switch revision.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

I'm expecting 15-16M. If there's a hardware revision without more performance it could go up to 17.5M, with a performance boost even 20M+



RolStoppable said:
javi741 said:

So according to a report to Bloomberg, Nintendo is actually planning to INCREASE Switch production in 2023 since demand is still supposedly high and that semiconductor shortages lowered Nintendo's sales in 2022.

I find it hard to believe that Nintendo is still stating that shortages are still the reason the Switch is dropping in sales in 2022/2023. In the U.S I see Switch's everywhere and you could get a switch with no problem, idk how the shortages are in Europe & Japan but based on what I've been hearing there isn't a dire shortage situation in those areas either, and I dont get how the Switch still in 2023 is dealing with shortages when its been the console more notoriously in more stock compared to Xbox/PS even in 2020/21 when the chip shortage was at its worse, even the PS5/SX are becoming readily available in 2023, seems odd Switch is still dealing with shortages. I guess its probably the ROTW dealing with the shortages the most.

So if this report is true, many of us could be wrong in thinking that sales dropped to 19M cause of demand.

This year is one where a hardware revision isn't unexpected, so if it's at least a somewhat meaningful revision, it's not unrealistic to result in a year that is flat or even slightly up in comparison to 2022. There are tens of millions Switch owners who have one since 3+ years and with no new Nintendo generation in sight, it becomes increasingly more likely that they'll be willing to upgrade, even if it's just a Switch revision.

I used to think there was a decent chance they had another hardware revision in store but the thing that has me doubting it now is the leaked Tears of the Kingdom OLED model, which seems quite likely to be real. If they had another revision in store I would have expected it to line up with Tears of the Kingdom, especially since they placed it close to the middle of the year, and why make a OLED bundle then? But I suppose it's still possible.

Regarding the poll, 16.5-17.9 seems like a very safe bet to me, unless there is a major revision or the next system is announced this year.



Major Switch Titles Launch Aligned

Multiplat 2023 Opencritic Prediction League

2022 predictions:

  • Switch - 24m
  • PS5 - 15.5m
  • Xbox Series - 10m

I voted 16.5 - 17.9m, but I could easily see it falling a little bit short of that.