Sell-through expectations for Nintendo Switch in 2023?

[UnderwaterFunktown]

RolStoppable said:

javi741 said:

So according to a report to Bloomberg, Nintendo is actually planning to INCREASE Switch production in 2023 since demand is still supposedly high and that semiconductor shortages lowered Nintendo's sales in 2022.

I find it hard to believe that Nintendo is still stating that shortages are still the reason the Switch is dropping in sales in 2022/2023. In the U.S I see Switch's everywhere and you could get a switch with no problem, idk how the shortages are in Europe & Japan but based on what I've been hearing there isn't a dire shortage situation in those areas either, and I dont get how the Switch still in 2023 is dealing with shortages when its been the console more notoriously in more stock compared to Xbox/PS even in 2020/21 when the chip shortage was at its worse, even the PS5/SX are becoming readily available in 2023, seems odd Switch is still dealing with shortages. I guess its probably the ROTW dealing with the shortages the most.

So if this report is true, many of us could be wrong in thinking that sales dropped to 19M cause of demand.

This year is one where a hardware revision isn't unexpected, so if it's at least a somewhat meaningful revision, it's not unrealistic to result in a year that is flat or even slightly up in comparison to 2022. There are tens of millions Switch owners who have one since 3+ years and with no new Nintendo generation in sight, it becomes increasingly more likely that they'll be willing to upgrade, even if it's just a Switch revision.

I used to think there was a decent chance they had another hardware revision in store but the thing that has me doubting it now is the leaked Tears of the Kingdom OLED model, which seems quite likely to be real. If they had another revision in store I would have expected it to line up with Tears of the Kingdom, especially since they placed it close to the middle of the year, and why make a OLED bundle then? But I suppose it's still possible.

Regarding the poll, 16.5-17.9 seems like a very safe bet to me, unless there is a major revision or the next system is announced this year.