This year is one where a hardware revision isn't unexpected, so if it's at least a somewhat meaningful revision, it's not unrealistic to result in a year that is flat or even slightly up in comparison to 2022. There are tens of millions Switch owners who have one since 3+ years and with no new Nintendo generation in sight, it becomes increasingly more likely that they'll be willing to upgrade, even if it's just a Switch revision.
I used to think there was a decent chance they had another hardware revision in store but the thing that has me doubting it now is the leaked Tears of the Kingdom OLED model, which seems quite likely to be real. If they had another revision in store I would have expected it to line up with Tears of the Kingdom, especially since they placed it close to the middle of the year, and why make a OLED bundle then? But I suppose it's still possible.
Regarding the poll, 16.5-17.9 seems like a very safe bet to me, unless there is a major revision or the next system is announced this year.
Major Switch Titles Launch Aligned
2023 OpenCritic Prediction Leagues: