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Forums - Sales Discussion - Sell-through expectations for Nintendo Switch in 2023?

 

Sell-through expectations for Nintendo Switch in 2023?

Less than 12 million 56 8.51%
 
12.0 - 13.4 million 24 3.65%
 
13.5 - 14.9 million 45 6.84%
 
15.0 - 16.4 million 145 22.04%
 
16.5 - 17.9 million 133 20.21%
 
18.0 - 19.4 million 107 16.26%
 
19.5 - 20.9 million 78 11.85%
 
21.0 - 22.4 million 34 5.17%
 
22.5 - 24.0 million 8 1.22%
 
More than 24 million 28 4.26%
 
Total:658

https://www.vgchartz.com/article/456049/nintendo-reportedly-planning-to-increase-switch-production/. Wow, I’m stoked, 20 million somehow looks doable this year.



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This is such a weird vote distribution, looking like one half of a bell curve.



Hi, I was just wondering if there was any way to change my vote after I already voted.



UnderwaterFunktown said:
RolStoppable said:

This year is one where a hardware revision isn't unexpected, so if it's at least a somewhat meaningful revision, it's not unrealistic to result in a year that is flat or even slightly up in comparison to 2022. There are tens of millions Switch owners who have one since 3+ years and with no new Nintendo generation in sight, it becomes increasingly more likely that they'll be willing to upgrade, even if it's just a Switch revision.

I used to think there was a decent chance they had another hardware revision in store but the thing that has me doubting it now is the leaked Tears of the Kingdom OLED model, which seems quite likely to be real. If they had another revision in store I would have expected it to line up with Tears of the Kingdom, especially since they placed it close to the middle of the year, and why make a OLED bundle then? But I suppose it's still possible.

Regarding the poll, 16.5-17.9 seems like a very safe bet to me, unless there is a major revision or the next system is announced this year.

Certainly, the chances for a hardware revision to launch alongside Zelda are very low by now. But there are still ~6 months of a reasonable timeframe afterwards.

It would be very odd if Nintendo didn't try to milk the Switch platform for profits, especially after they squeezed everything out of the 3DS which was moderately profitable at best. Due to the rising inflation rates in the recent past, a price cut is off the table in 2023, so now it would have to be a hardware revision if Nintendo intends to maintain a very high sales level in 2023. Either that, or Nintendo's first party lineup for 2023 is seriously packed by not just having a new Zelda, but also the next big Mario game along with another couple strong sellers.

Lastly, there's the scenario where Nintendo simply overexpects what they have lined up for 2023, so Switch sales would decline by around 25% despite Nintendo thinking otherwise going into the year.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

Yeah that increasing HW production news is very interesting indeed. Makes me think Nintendo is gonna really try to get aggressive on selling the Switch (which they haven't even started trying to do yet 6 years in lol).

This news COULD mean a few things:

1. They might be trying to hold off on a successor for a good long while, perhaps until Holiday 2025 even. While keeping Switch HW sales fairly healthy and printing money with massive game sales.

2. And so it could mean they've got numerous big games coming after Zelda, obviously 2D Mario, Prime remake, and Prime 4 are kinda the main obvious ones, though there are plenty more possibilities to add to that list before the Switch is done like DK, Star Fox, Kid Icarus, another Mario Party, another Ring Fit, Zelda:WW/TP HD, maybe a Prime 2/3 HD pack, with how often Pokemon games come out maybe we'll get another Legends game or some other side adventure in 2024, hell maybe they are working on a remastered Super Mario Galaxy 2 Deluxe with new content and that's why they bizzarely left it out of 3D All-Stars.

3. Possibility of software price cuts on older games to prime that well over 100m install base to pick up games they missed out on before. Bring back Nintendo Selects for $30 for a bunch of first party games whose sales are slow now. This would in general increase excitement for new people to get the system if they can get a bunch of AAA first party games for half price.

4. HW price cuts. If chip shortages aren't a problem anymore that probably means cost of production will go back down some. Before the shortages problems Nintendo was probably making an absolutely killing on every system sold. Now with the system in its later years, if profits on every system sold is rising again they could easily drop prices to something like $170/$250/$300 to spur new sales. This news - planning to actually increase Switch production - suggests they may be planning on getting aggressive on pricing to push Switch sales to the limit rather than letting them gradually trail off at their initial prices leading into the nex-gen.

5. New model?? I think the only new model that makes sense right now would be a Switch Home, since they already have a handheld-only, the hybrid, and an upgrade hybrid. Home, as in a console/TV-only model, is the last obvious type of model missing. They could probably easily sell it at $200 with a Pro Controller and a bunch of disk space while making a nice profit. Perhaps part of the increase in Switch production is because they want to sell a few million of a brand new model this year.


Or of course they could just be being irrationally positive and aren't planning to do any of this and will end up having to rachet production down again once they increase it and see there was no need to do that. But if they plan to get aggressive in Switch's late years with SW and HW price cuts, perhaps a new model, and a bunch more big games, I could see this move making sense and them trying to push out the next-gen until 2025 - they could have a huge launch of Switch 2 in holiday 2025 with 3D Mario, MK9, and also the next mainline Pokemon as a cross-gen game.



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I give it no more than 15M