I used to think there was a decent chance they had another hardware revision in store but the thing that has me doubting it now is the leaked Tears of the Kingdom OLED model, which seems quite likely to be real. If they had another revision in store I would have expected it to line up with Tears of the Kingdom, especially since they placed it close to the middle of the year, and why make a OLED bundle then? But I suppose it's still possible.
Regarding the poll, 16.5-17.9 seems like a very safe bet to me, unless there is a major revision or the next system is announced this year.
Certainly, the chances for a hardware revision to launch alongside Zelda are very low by now. But there are still ~6 months of a reasonable timeframe afterwards.
It would be very odd if Nintendo didn't try to milk the Switch platform for profits, especially after they squeezed everything out of the 3DS which was moderately profitable at best. Due to the rising inflation rates in the recent past, a price cut is off the table in 2023, so now it would have to be a hardware revision if Nintendo intends to maintain a very high sales level in 2023. Either that, or Nintendo's first party lineup for 2023 is seriously packed by not just having a new Zelda, but also the next big Mario game along with another couple strong sellers.
Lastly, there's the scenario where Nintendo simply overexpects what they have lined up for 2023, so Switch sales would decline by around 25% despite Nintendo thinking otherwise going into the year.
Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.