With the FY forecast of 15m it would seem Nintendo are planning on shipping about 15.5m this Calendar Year.

When it comes to Switch sales Nintendo aren't the most reliable forecasters but it is an expected drop and would seem to suggest they don't have any big surprises that will positively impact sales coming this FY.

My goodness!, those 21 and 22 result numbers contain more than a full FY18 in over sales (almost a FY24 forecast)! That's amazing!

The results are in. VGChartz currently estimates the Switch sold 15.900m units in 2023. My prediction of 15m-16.4m was correct.

@Kakadu18 and @Slownenberg both predicted 16m, so out by only 0.1m.

Ignoring the top two and bottom two poll options to weed out trolls and joke responses the average prediction from the polled users would be 17.5m so Switch sold 9% less than the polled users expectations.

Over-shot it by about 1m.

I underestimated the Switch a fair bit this year though wasn't super off. Stuff like TOTK really made more of a difference than I was expecting.

Wisdom of the crowd won, but there was an uneven distribution of tails. This is what we call a skewed normal distribution in the biz. For the second year in a row, the Switch was on average overestimated, though a bit less than in 2022.

Hey, we all get lucky once in a while, right?

Respectable total; slightly better than I expected.
TOTK and the Mario movie gave the system a shot in the arm.

I voted '16-17.9M' thinking it would do around 17.5M.
The Mario movie and Totk did about what I expected, but I had thought it have better sales during the holidays.