So as the title suggest when do you think the Switch 2 will release ? Given the rumors of Switch 2, and the reconfirmed announce of Switch 2 by end of the fiscal year, what do you think?

Sorry about not showing the polls prior to that, but the original post alongside the polls was deleted, the post was somewhat restored but the polls didn't make it.

Poll from the second quarter of 2024:

Poll from the first quarter of 2024:

I’ve been going with Holiday 2024 for quite a while. As much as releasing a new Switch with BOTW2 in Spring 2023 sounds like a great strategy, I think the chip shortages, as well as the “bird in a hand is worth two in a bush” will keep the successor at bay.

They also need to get a launch ready and I just don’t see that happening in less than a year, considering the pandemic/other console launches that likely have required a bit of resources.

Waiting until 2024 will let them stack up some great 1st Party titles that will compel users to adopt, as well as allowing third parties enough time to adapt and create their own system sellers.

Im also more than a little worried about the speed of adoption to the new system. Nintendo is known to break tradition and create off the wall products, but they may be feeling a bit stuck this time around and the main selling point of a Switch 2 could just be more power. That certainly doesn’t get me excited, but I also know that in the long run it’s probably the best course of action.

Wednesday

I believe I said this pre-covid semiconductor shortage here multiple times but the EARLIEST I think we'll see it is March 2024. Intel's CEO recently said he expects the shortage to continue into 2024 so if that happens, March 2025 is the latest I'd expect a successor.

Nah.  Gaming stuff launches on Tuesdays.  

I could see them releasing any time during 2024-2026, but most likely it will be in 2025.

no reason to come out before 2025 the way the world is atm.

Atlan samples come out in 2023 so could be a good platform for 2025 to be on with updated dlss tech.

Fall 2024 seems most likely to me. March 2024 or March 2025 is also possible.

I think by now it should be clear that 2023 won't be it. 

Late 2024 makes the most sense to me. Nintendo needs to find the right balance: They shouldn't kill the Switch off prematurely like they did with the GBA, DS and Wii. But they shouldn't wait too long either because that would mean they are leaving money on the table. Right now the Switch is still on fire. The OP makes it seem like there needs to be a successor soon, but we should keep in mind that the PS4's best (calendar) year according to VGChartz was 19.7 million units. Even if Nintendo misses its current forecast by a bit, that would still put Switch sales above PS4's best calendar year ever. Did the PS4 need to be replaced in 2016/17? Of course not.

The big question is: What else has Nintendo planned for the console? Do they plan on releasing a mid-gen upgrade like GBC, DSi and New 3DS? If so, there'll be plenty of time left for the console. They can also cut the price, but that wouldn't have such a longterm effect on sales. But with the current chip shortage, the pandemic still not quite over and other events it might be hard to release a New 3DS-like new model of the Switch and produce it in large enough quantities. 

Anyways, 2024 seems like the most logical choice for me right now, but I wouldn't rule out a 2025 launch.

Been saying for a while that the successor should launch no earlier than Holiday 2024. Considering everything going on, I feel like even Holiday 2024 might be too soon, so I'd definitely prefer a 2025 launch.

2023 definitely seems too soon for a successor. I do see them launching a new Switch model either this coming holiday perhaps with Splatoon 3 or Bayo 3 or some other unannounced 2022 game. Or Spring 2023 with Zelda.

I've been wondering if a first half 2025 launch would be more beneficial than Holiday 2025 launch. In truth, I do have trouble thinking about what software Nintendo could release in the first half of 2025 if they wait until Holiday 2025. The only problem with a March 2025 launch is that they might have to announce the system in late 2024 and hurt Switch sales that holiday.

Has anybody thought that maybe they could launch a successor around June 2025 (and announce it early 2025)? That could be a way to get around the above problem. They could launch with Mario Kart in June 2025, have a new 2D Mario in September 2025 (40th anniversary) and then Pokemon Gen 10 in November 2025 (though I could see Gen 10 being a Switch successor game, I still think it could be playable on regular Switch as a Gold/Silver situation). Obviously there would be other somewhat major titles as well, depending on what comes out over the next couple of years. Maybe we will get Mario Party on the Switch successor in 2025. 2026 would see games like an OoT remake for the 40th anniversary, Animal Crossing and possibly Smash Bros. Could see a 3D Mario debuting in Holiday 2027 and BW remakes earlier that year by ILCA. I think a new 3D Zelda would be the last of the "major" franchises to appear on the Switch successor, which makes sense.

Do you guys think that if the successor releases in March of a given year that Nintendo could still announce it earlier that year as opposed to the end of the prior year? Would a January reveal and March release suffice?