I’ve been going with Holiday 2024 for quite a while. As much as releasing a new Switch with BOTW2 in Spring 2023 sounds like a great strategy, I think the chip shortages, as well as the “bird in a hand is worth two in a bush” will keep the successor at bay.
They also need to get a launch ready and I just don’t see that happening in less than a year, considering the pandemic/other console launches that likely have required a bit of resources.
Waiting until 2024 will let them stack up some great 1st Party titles that will compel users to adopt, as well as allowing third parties enough time to adapt and create their own system sellers.
Im also more than a little worried about the speed of adoption to the new system. Nintendo is known to break tradition and create off the wall products, but they may be feeling a bit stuck this time around and the main selling point of a Switch 2 could just be more power. That certainly doesn’t get me excited, but I also know that in the long run it’s probably the best course of action.