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Forums - Sales - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

TLDR
They didn't make it.



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CosmicSex said:

TLDR
They didn't make it.

is not over till the fat lady sings



XtremeBG said:

I don't know why people think that just because Nintendo will most likely continue to sell Switch 1, it will get over 160M. Even if the Switch is on the market in 2028, 2029 and 2030, this does not guarantee in any way reaching 160M. It really depends on how much it sells for those 3 years (if there will actually be 3 or less). Cuz if it's at 157 or 158M by end of 2026, and it does 5k per week for another 3 years, it won't reach it. So simply remaining on sale does not guarantee anything, it just gives it a higher chance in case it's super close, like 159M, cuz 3 years with sales of 5k or even 10k can do only that, 750k to 1.5M at best. Switch is already reaching 60k per week mind you, and that is in the middle of 2025, before the real drops of Switch 2 release and availability on the market takes full effect. Once that happens it may settle to 20-30k per week. And again that is 2025. So by the years I mentioned above, even 10k maybe too optimistic, it really depends on how much it will drop it's baseline until the holidays, then in 2026, and then in 2027 and beyond (again in that example scenario of Nintendo not discontinuing it after 2026 is done).

Here are some examples of consoles sales in their last years on the market before death:

  • Wii - 2014 and 2015 - 1.1M in total.
  • XB360 - 2015, 2016, 2017 - 830k in total.
  • PS3 - 2016 and 2017 - 830k in total.
  • PSP - 2015 and 2016 - 700k in total.
  • PS4 - 2022, 2023 and 2024 - 550k in total.
  • 3DS - 2020 and 2021 - 520K in total.

How interesting that you don't mention the PS2 in these examples, and only with date ranges that fit your narrative. Why are you using 2022 as the starting point for PS4 when PS5 was released in 2020? The same applies to the 3DS; "last" years should start in 2017, not 2020. At least do a fair comparison, because by that logic, the final years of Switch 1 will begin in 2028, not now.

Last edited by eleazar0425 - on 02 August 2025

eleazar0425 said:

How interesting that you don't mention the PS2 in these examples, and only with date ranges that fit your narrative. Why are you using 2022 as the starting point for PS4 when PS5 was released in 2020? The same applies to the 3DS; "last" years should start in 2017, not 2020. At least do a fair comparison, because by that logic, the final years of Switch 1 will begin in 2028, not now.

PS2 is outlier, and everyone knews it had incredible legs, if Switch has those it will surpass even 170M, so there is no need to compare it to those. Also that is less likely outcome than it is for a traditional legs. About the other, I used the few years before death, but sometime after the successor's came out, since I talk about Switch selling after 2026 for what many users state that because it can continue to sell for some more years it's like guaranteed to reach 160M. So I put some of the last years of consoles that are comparable to what might be Switch's years after 2026. So no, PS4 starting point should not be 2020, since I am not comparing the period exactly after the successor's released but some time after that, since my point is if Nintendo leave Switch for a few more years after the year it's obvious it will be on the market - 2026. And it doesn't apply to 3DS too, cuz I already explained why. Other thing I took in mind are the sales themselves .. Switch is not making 8.4M+ in 2027 like PS4 did in 2020 in the example you give, or even 3DS - 6.5M in 2017, or 3.6M in 2018. It is fair comparison, don't judge so quickly when you don't know what is the point of my post. The final years of Switch will begin in 2027. I never stated otherwise, why make the point ? Who said it's starting now ? Why you go so aggressive ? 

I know that's you phenomajp, why you should enter into argument with me from another alternative account ? Dishonest and unfair!

How would you be so fast here to support yourself, and after that be so quick to thank to yourself just 2 minutes after your post from your another account ? Just the amount of time needed to sign out, sign into the other account, write the comment and post it. What coincidence. And then you talk to me about likes of the posts (that probably you do on yourself alone) ... Hmm how convenient.

No one else would jump so straight away as you just did here (on the post from hour ago I mean). I wonder how many more accounts do you have on this site. You won't stop seeing posts from me about all the consoles, including the Switch, and you can do nothing about it. And no matter how many times you quote me, or enter into argument, you won't change a thing about it. And the only thing you will accomplish with that will be books from text in answers from me each time. Don't you get it already, that there is no point in that ? You aren't changing a thing. So either accept it, or be ready to enter into arguments every single time, then read books from me, and answer. Now go turn off the access to that account as well, so others can't see it, just like you did with your main one .. 

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 03 August 2025

My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

Best holiday months / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

XtremeBG said:
eleazar0425 said:

How interesting that you don't mention the PS2 in these examples, and only with date ranges that fit your narrative. Why are you using 2022 as the starting point for PS4 when PS5 was released in 2020? The same applies to the 3DS; "last" years should start in 2017, not 2020. At least do a fair comparison, because by that logic, the final years of Switch 1 will begin in 2028, not now.

PS2 is outlier, and everyone knews it had incredible legs, if Switch has those it will surpass even 170M, so there is no need to compare it to those. Also that is less likely outcome than it is for a traditional legs. About the other, I used the few years before death, but sometime after the successor's came out, since I talk about Switch selling after 2026 for what many users state that because it can continue to sell for some more years it's like guaranteed to reach 160M. So I put some of the last years of consoles that are comparable to what might be Switch's years after 2026. So no, PS4 starting point should not be 2020, since I am not comparing the period exactly after the successor's released but some time after that, since my point is if Nintendo leave Switch for a few more years after the year it's obvious it will be on the market - 2026. And it doesn't apply to 3DS too, cuz I already explained why. Other thing I took in mind are the sales themselves .. Switch is not making 8.4M+ in 2027 like PS4 did in 2020 in the example you give, or even 3DS - 6.5M in 2017, or 3.6M in 2018. It is fair comparison, don't judge so quickly when you don't know what is the point of my post. The final years of Switch will begin in 2027. I never stated otherwise, why make the point ? Who said it's starting now ? Why you go so aggressive ? 

I know that's you phenomajp, why you should enter into argument with me from another alternative account ? Dishonest and unfair!

How would you be so fast here to support yourself, and after that be so quick to thank to yourself just 2 minutes after your post from your another account ? Just the amount of time needed to sign out, sign into the other account, write the comment and post it. What coincidence. And then you talk to me about likes of the posts (that probably you do on yourself alone) ... Hmm how convenient.

No one else would jump so straight away as you just did here (on the post from hour ago I mean). I wonder how many more accounts do you have on this site. You won't stop seeing posts from me about all the consoles, including the Switch, and you can do nothing about it. And no matter how many times you quote me, or enter into argument, you won't change a thing about it. And the only thing you will accomplish with that will be books from text in answers from me each time. Don't you get it already, that there is no point in that ? You aren't changing a thing. So either accept it, or be ready to enter into arguments every single time, then read books from me, and answer. Now go turn off the access to that account as well, so others can't see it, just like you did with your main one .. 

Do you realize my account has been active for more than 5 years before phenomajp even posted a post or comment in this site? I'm pointing this out because you're always pushing the same narrative instead of just using actual arguments, and we all know why is that, you want so bad that the Switch never get that best-selling console ever title.



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CourageTCD said:

The price increase will also include the Switch Lite? If not, maybe the Switch still can turn around this tariff problem. The Switch Lite would stand as the only really cheap console in the market

It still is the cheapest console, by a huge margin, with the price adjustment



 

 

We reap what we sow

160rmf said:
CourageTCD said:

The price increase will also include the Switch Lite? If not, maybe the Switch still can turn around this tariff problem. The Switch Lite would stand as the only really cheap console in the market

It still is the cheapest console, by a huge margin, with the price adjustment

Yeah, we already saw in their latest fiscal report that the hybrid models are declining faster so I wouldn’t be surprised if they get phased out while Lite stays around as a low cost alternative for the next 2-3 years until Nintendo can release a Switch 2 Lite.

Switch Lite-$229.99

Switch 2-$449.99

Xbox Series models, $379.99-$729.99

Playstation 5 models, $449.99-$699.99

Steam Deck models, $399.99-$649.99

ROG Ally models, $649.99-$999.99

Legion Go models, $599.99-$899.99

Like you said, even with the price increase, it’s by far the cheapest option for dedicated gaming devices.

Edit: now that I’m looking at all the prices side by side, the outrage over Switch 2 price is even funnier because it’s still one of the cheaper options on the market.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

XtremeBG said:
eleazar0425 said:

How interesting that you don't mention the PS2 in these examples, and only with date ranges that fit your narrative. Why are you using 2022 as the starting point for PS4 when PS5 was released in 2020? The same applies to the 3DS; "last" years should start in 2017, not 2020. At least do a fair comparison, because by that logic, the final years of Switch 1 will begin in 2028, not now.

PS2 is outlier, and everyone knews it had incredible legs, if Switch has those it will surpass even 170M, so there is no need to compare it to those. Also that is less likely outcome than it is for a traditional legs. About the other, I used the few years before death, but sometime after the successor's came out, since I talk about Switch selling after 2026 for what many users state that because it can continue to sell for some more years it's like guaranteed to reach 160M. So I put some of the last years of consoles that are comparable to what might be Switch's years after 2026. So no, PS4 starting point should not be 2020, since I am not comparing the period exactly after the successor's released but some time after that, since my point is if Nintendo leave Switch for a few more years after the year it's obvious it will be on the market - 2026. And it doesn't apply to 3DS too, cuz I already explained why. Other thing I took in mind are the sales themselves .. Switch is not making 8.4M+ in 2027 like PS4 did in 2020 in the example you give, or even 3DS - 6.5M in 2017, or 3.6M in 2018. It is fair comparison, don't judge so quickly when you don't know what is the point of my post. The final years of Switch will begin in 2027. I never stated otherwise, why make the point ? Who said it's starting now ? Why you go so aggressive ? 

I know that's you phenomajp, why you should enter into argument with me from another alternative account ? Dishonest and unfair!

How would you be so fast here to support yourself, and after that be so quick to thank to yourself just 2 minutes after your post from your another account ? Just the amount of time needed to sign out, sign into the other account, write the comment and post it. What coincidence. And then you talk to me about likes of the posts (that probably you do on yourself alone) ... Hmm how convenient.

No one else would jump so straight away as you just did here (on the post from hour ago I mean). I wonder how many more accounts do you have on this site. You won't stop seeing posts from me about all the consoles, including the Switch, and you can do nothing about it. And no matter how many times you quote me, or enter into argument, you won't change a thing about it. And the only thing you will accomplish with that will be books from text in answers from me each time. Don't you get it already, that there is no point in that ? You aren't changing a thing. So either accept it, or be ready to enter into arguments every single time, then read books from me, and answer. Now go turn off the access to that account as well, so others can't see it, just like you did with your main one .. 

WOOOW, i need dark mode, how???



我是广州人

Ashadelo said:
XtremeBG said:

PS2 is outlier, and everyone knews it had incredible legs, if Switch has those it will surpass even 170M, so there is no need to compare it to those. Also that is less likely outcome than it is for a traditional legs. About the other, I used the few years before death, but sometime after the successor's came out, since I talk about Switch selling after 2026 for what many users state that because it can continue to sell for some more years it's like guaranteed to reach 160M. So I put some of the last years of consoles that are comparable to what might be Switch's years after 2026. So no, PS4 starting point should not be 2020, since I am not comparing the period exactly after the successor's released but some time after that, since my point is if Nintendo leave Switch for a few more years after the year it's obvious it will be on the market - 2026. And it doesn't apply to 3DS too, cuz I already explained why. Other thing I took in mind are the sales themselves .. Switch is not making 8.4M+ in 2027 like PS4 did in 2020 in the example you give, or even 3DS - 6.5M in 2017, or 3.6M in 2018. It is fair comparison, don't judge so quickly when you don't know what is the point of my post. The final years of Switch will begin in 2027. I never stated otherwise, why make the point ? Who said it's starting now ? Why you go so aggressive ? 

I know that's you phenomajp, why you should enter into argument with me from another alternative account ? Dishonest and unfair!

How would you be so fast here to support yourself, and after that be so quick to thank to yourself just 2 minutes after your post from your another account ? Just the amount of time needed to sign out, sign into the other account, write the comment and post it. What coincidence. And then you talk to me about likes of the posts (that probably you do on yourself alone) ... Hmm how convenient.

No one else would jump so straight away as you just did here (on the post from hour ago I mean). I wonder how many more accounts do you have on this site. You won't stop seeing posts from me about all the consoles, including the Switch, and you can do nothing about it. And no matter how many times you quote me, or enter into argument, you won't change a thing about it. And the only thing you will accomplish with that will be books from text in answers from me each time. Don't you get it already, that there is no point in that ? You aren't changing a thing. So either accept it, or be ready to enter into arguments every single time, then read books from me, and answer. Now go turn off the access to that account as well, so others can't see it, just like you did with your main one .. 

WOOOW, i need dark mode, how???

Just click this small black rectangle below your profile picture



eleazar0425 said:

Do you realize my account has been active for more than 5 years before phenomajp even posted a post or comment in this site? I'm pointing this out because you're always pushing the same narrative instead of just using actual arguments, and we all know why is that, you want so bad that the Switch never get that best-selling console ever title.

You simply visit the site for a long time, and use all the accounts. The date of creation does not matter at all and is not connected to anything. I can create one account in 2009, one in 2012, one in 2015, one in 2018, one in 2022, and one in 2025 and can enter through every and write from every of them. So stop the bullshit. The writing pattern is also the same, you write as yourself phenomajp, the words you are using, the sentences you make, the behaviour you have. Stop lie everyone. And again talk in plural form just like you did in the past. Talk from everyone. Don't you understand already that you are alone in this world ? No one is with you .. Oops sorry, my mistake, your alternative accounts are with you . Another thing, how come you all of a sudden that haven't exchanged posts with me became so sure about me wanting the Switch to never get a title ? This is so phenomajp's... You aren't even hiding .. Here is another example, I am active in this forum for more than 6 years now, and till now I've been only attacked in such a way by you phenomajp, not anyone else. So what are the chances after more than 6 years, and after a period of constant accusations from you, now some other user with 20 posts to be jumping on me the same way you does phenomajp ? Zero! That's you. How big coincidence has to be, in that big time period no one else would beef with me, but only you, and now some random nobody jumping on me just 2 days after our last argument ? What are the chances ? So again, stop the bullshit, I know it's you, and everyone who put little time to read your posts will also reach to the same conclusion. And by the way, I've written very good post to you in that screenshot I upload in my previous post, go take a look at it again, and read it, it's the quoted part. I forgot I did such a good post about you. When I told you no one supports you and likes you, you answered from your alt. account, to prove me that there is one who is on your side (which is essentially you) and even thanking to yourself.

About the Switch .. even If you were right, me wanting so bad or not does not change anything. So why bother ? Why do you care and what difference does that make to you ? If I want this I can't and won't change the future or the facts that will happen with words or texting. So what's the point ? If it happens I can't do anything. And if it does not, my words does not contribute for that.

Also why do you ignore what I wrote ? I simply took the more likely outcome, you obviously didn't understand my initial post about that, cuz it was about the performance Switch may have from 2027 and after that, and only in the case Nintendo actually decides to leave it on the market, which is very far from sure to begin with. How is your example fair (since you say mine isn't) when you give me years of consoles selling 8M+ and 6M+ where Switch's current year will be below that, let alone 2027, the year for which my point was in the post ??? Also if you don't like my comparison do one yourself, don't start to attack, to spin the things in some sick way only to work in your favor to hate on me. The example was simply about 2 or 3 of the very last years of consoles, since the post was about those last 2-3 years of the Switch IF NINTENDO DECIDES for those to be the years from 2027 to 2029/2030. Which can very likely be not the case and simply discontinue it after 2026 ends. So how you are expecting me to put 5 years of 3DS against 2 or 3 years at max for the Switch ?? Maybe you want every possible example and scenario to fit your dream of Switch reaching and breaking 160M, not me wanting the opposite as you say (where in reality I am simply realist and lay down the most likely scenario in my opinion, again in the case of Nintendo deciding to leave it till 2029/2030).

And why throw PS2 in the mix ? If Switch was following PS2 legs it wouldn't drop from 16 to 12 to around 5M this year. Why even including it in there ? This was discussion sometime in 2023 and 2024, it's late for that at this point, cuz if Switch was going after PS2 legs, first it wouldn't drop so much in such little time, and second it wouldn't be at the level the PS2 was in it's very last year where it did around 4M. Switch is already cratering, at a pace PS2 never did. Going from 12M to not more than 5M this year. So no, it doesn't fit the example. And with the price hike, I can guarantee you Switch won't magically continue to sell 5M each year till 2030 or even close, to be okay to compare it to PS2's last years. It's already at 60k per week, and in January it was at more than double of that, and we are yet to see the real baseline the Switch will settle at after the launch month of Switch 2.

Also my point was simply about the people who say that it's like guarantee the Switch to pass 160M if it's left on the market for few more years, and all I am saying is that no, some 2-3 more years of sales level around 5-10k per week won't make much, it can make 1.5M at best. So if it hasn't reached at least 158.5M by end of 2026, I don't see 2-3 years more on the market to help it pass 160M. If it does then sure, no doubt. And if somehow it's selling 20k or something like that for those 2-3 years, then sure, it can happen, but I can't see it doing that much in 2027 and after, when it's at ~60k now, let alone how much will continue to drop this and next year.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 04 August 2025

My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

Best holiday months / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2