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Forums - Sales - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

Manlytears said:

What is the general opinion?
Switcth on track to beat PS2, or the chances are small?

Small (under 30%) unless Nintendo makes enough of them. And it will be easier if Switch gets a price cut, but that would be Nintendo chasing units and not profit. After all, people can buy Switch software on Switch 2 as well.

It will beat DS, no question. 



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)

PS5: 122 million (was 105 million, then 115 million) Xbox Series X/S: 38 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million. then 48 million. then 40 million)

Switch 2: 120 million (was 116 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

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I still think 160+ is still very achievable, Nintendo has stated a few times that the NS1 will have at least a 10 year lifespan, there's still almost 2 years left.



我是广州人

Ashadelo said:

I still think 160+ is still very achievable, Nintendo has stated a few times that the NS1 will have at least a 10 year lifespan, there's still almost 2 years left.

Nintendo has never said that.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

RolStoppable said:
Ashadelo said:

I still think 160+ is still very achievable, Nintendo has stated a few times that the NS1 will have at least a 10 year lifespan, there's still almost 2 years left.

Nintendo has never said that.

Your right, im wrong. this is the cloest they have said

Furukawa’s comments in 2022 reiterated that the Switch was still in the middle of its lifecycle after six years, suggesting a potential 10-year or longer lifespan, which would be unprecedented for Nintendo’s home consoles.


我是广州人

A pricecut this late in the lifespan only makes financial sense if there are reduced hardware production costs to warrant it.
New cutomers are unlikely to buy as much software for it as they would at earlier points in its lifespan.

Especially since several of the notable new Switch 2 releases are not cross-generational.



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As much asI want I know it will never happen. 160 mil is just delirious. Switch 1 is now is just crawling.



SuperJortendo said:

The ball really is in Nintendo's court right now. If they bundle it with some of their most popular games, give it a significant price drop ($100 or more), and continue making them then the Switch can pass the PS2, I think.

I don't think they're going to do all that though.

Most likely can't. 

Even before Trump's tariffs rubbish, the fact was technology since the pandemic no longer drops in price as it sued to. Nintendo don't sell at a loss, so if the tech parts aren't getting cheaper Nintendo can't drop the price.

A few of us pointed this out a while back, as it was to be a major barrier to The Switch breaking the PS2s sales records. Add in for some reason the Switch was never as hot in Europe as Japan and North America and Nintendo doesn't do much with regions like South America, plus the massive slow down in software this past year and the switch had many disadvantages going for it.



Phenomajp13 said:

This is my last post towards you about your victimhood because I really don't care to entertain your victim nonsense. Your first part of your post makes no sense. Calling you dishonest doesn't describe your "personality" because obviously I don't know you personally. It describes your BEHAVIOR obviously because its what you DO on the SITE. I can speak to your behavior on the site because we both are on the site lol. All i have to do is quote you doing exactly what I am accusong you of (dishonesty). In a previous post on the last page describing you as dishonest by saying all you do is lie, I got 5 thumbs up! Again look in the mirror because your professional vicrimhood stance is wearing off. Your little jig is up and the site can see you are dishonest. Thats why you bend over backwards to dodge addressing your actual post while funnily enough trying to tell me how serious I take you despite constantly laughing (lol are consistently in my post). Im certainly don't take you serious, I do enjoy catching you in predicaments you cant wiggle your way out of, like how you said in the November 2024 NPD thread about how you NEVER made a prediction when your prediction was right on the front page lol. You are truly fun sometimes. Finally your obsession about my real account is weird because why does it matter? Im an animous poster to YOU regardless of which account I post from. 

As for the part where you claim you haven't said anything else on the subject is funny because its almost as if just a few pages ago you were having a discussion with Norion in this thread about how the DS might even be a struggle but regardless the point of that comment was me exposing how you will obviously agree with any stances of it not making because you replied to something Norion said to another poster. So yes we get it, you are still hoping Switch doesn't make it. Hence your I agree quote which 5 people agreed with me on poking fun at you for being so excited you had to do it instead of just liking the post.

As for the Vgchartz stuff, thats irrelevant because this thread is based on shipped not Vgchartz estimates. 

As for the last part, we will see ;) and funny enough you are yet again acting like you haven't been raising your prediction about the console for months lol. Again you are the only one worried, I am simply pointing out with all the uncertainty going on, its weird to see either side so certain. I'll reiterate, I think it gets there but unfortunately I do think hitting 161 is difficult but this thread is about 160. If they (Switch & PS2) tie at 160+, then we were both wrong.

Edit: Another good point from KLXVER, Nintendo is known for releasing late revisions after a successor so another one and game over. You literally need Nintendo to do nothing, thats why it makes no sense for me to be worried and you are simply projecting your feelings. 

If you don't care then don't post. It's that simple. Don't quote and don't post. You don't earn nothing from that. Cuz every time you quote me I answer back and you then need to be ready to answer at least a few posts down the line from me, cuz it get's long. So if you are tired, simple don't quote my future post, and we are done.

The thumbs does not have anything to do with whatever, cuz they are not factor. I also have gotten many thumbs up on my posts, on some even more then yours. You can go back and look at every post again and it's thumbs up. But this is not a factor at all for anything. Let alone it can all be faked, and you can simply enter from another accounts and give yourself thumbs ups. No one can be sure. But again, I have posts with more than your thumbs up, and that proves nothing. It seems you are very desperate, to hang onto that.

" the site can see " .. Dude, everyone is here for pure fun, enjoyment, some talk, about sales, games and even politics and other topics. No one cares about any of your accusations and nonsense you are writing pretty much all the time. Because you don't take it serious, that's why you jump on to everyone who says anything negative about your precious favorite Switch, or anything connected to "not reaching 160M" .. please.. 

About that NPD thread, you didn't explain yourself correctly about what you meant by "front page" and since I did a post the same or the previous day, on the front page about the US sales, on the article for the Switch in it's US sales, I thought you talked for that, that's why I was surprised about what prediction exactly you were talking about. I didn't realized at first you meant the one I did in that very thread, since you said front page, and I did one in the article on the front page of the site some hours before that. That is another failed try of yours to spin the things in your favor. And let's not continue with that stupid post of yours, since you were saying I am upset, since those 200k I was short on will help Switch reach a milestone such as 160M when it was at something like 145M at that time. Yeah 200k will make a lot of difference when 15M were needed. And you left that argument too, coward. And then I can't wiggle out ? okay.. every of our arguments is there, and everyone can see how when you don't have anything anymore to hang onto you just left. I don't have obsession with your account, I am simply saying the dishonest here is you. You have turned off access to your account that you are posting from now. Why you hide ? If you are honest what do you have to hide ? In the past not only me but a few other users here make a question of who you really are. Don't forget that. It's not only me. 

About the posts which I exchanged with Norion .. again you are trying to spin my words here, to look it like I've said Switch won't reach DS. When I have never ever said that. I simply said by the time it reaches it it will be crawling in sales. Which simply means it's speed will be a lot lot slower than it is now and it will be simply crawling. You can go back and read the posts again. Here is another example that the real dishonest person here is you, and you only. I am telling Switch will be crawling by this point, you are spinning it like I've said it won't reach the DS. No I am not hoping anything, cuz I don't have feelings for where it lands. I have feelings for games, I have favorite franchises, My feelings are when I play games I love, but what change will make in my life or on my emotions if PS2 is the best selling console for some 10 years more, or if the Switch surpasses it ? Nothing. I simply tell what I think it will happened based on my personal opinion, which is based on history, and on factors in the late life of every console. You are spinning whole this thing into feelings and personal bias or emotions. Not me or anyone else here. Maybe you have ones about that, and you are free to have, no one blaming you, but don't put that on others. The people are not like you. And don't talk from in plural form. We ? Who are we ? Why do you talk from the face of the others ? Why do you think that the people think like you and agree with you ? Don't you see that no one likes you ? You are alone. Again desperate enough to take those thumbs up as something .. then I should take mines on the comment about thumbs down button on your posts .. 5 persons agree with you, but 10 with me .. What does that means ? That at least double the number people who agree with you, don't agree with you.

The thread is based on the final number. The final number will be both shipped and sold. And how everyone is making his prediction is entirely to his choice. Many other users also have used the sold number on the front page of the site sometimes, in their posts, why not accuse them also ? Me using the sold number has nothing to do with my feelings or worrying or bias. The sale numbers in the end are the same as shipped, and as I told you, it's simply easier for me to use the sales ones, cuz that data is a lot more often available, unlike the shipped ones, but as I told you, from time to time I also include the shipped numbers as well in my post, so again one more failed try here to spin the things in your favor. Why the spins ? cuz simply you are the dishonest one here.

I haven't been raising my prediction for a good amount of time now yes. And in the past raising my prediction was done simply because of the circumstances, not because my sales analisys is not right. For example my 150M prediction that I hold on to for around 2 years if not more, would become true if the Switch 2 released in the end of 2024, like many expected. So it's a lot more me being wrong about the circumstance (in that case Switch 2 launch) than me being wrong about how the sales will actually continue in this scenario. When the release of the Switch 2 became clear I adjusted it, to a range of 155 to 158M (voted in my own poll even), leaning more towards the higher end, as I stated in some of my previous post - 157/158M. I am not accusing you you are not sure anymore and doubt if it will get there, I threw that at you in my last post, because when you talk about me being dishonest you include that example with the adjusting for something dishonest, but then you obviously do the same, since you don't stay true to your initial prediction to the end, and most importantly, I throw that at you, since the only prediction you done for the last 2 years is this, and I did at least 10, so the thing I said before, you don't have balls. It's very easy to stay on the side bench and attack and accuse, and judge, and laugh when someone came short once or twice (even though it may be more times right than wrong) but to not participate in the whole thing. You do 1 prediction, I do like 10, and when I came up short you came and try to make laugh out of it, while at the same time you don't enter into the fight and threw your 10 predictions or even 5, to see how wrong or right you will be. Then talk about how other are victims.

Ashadelo said:

*crabs popcorn and a hotpocket*

These prediction threads always turn out so hot

Yeah but reading that felt like a waste and distasteful.

Yeah, you can blame @Phenomajp13 for this. His attacks are based purely on hate. That's all. It's never interesting when it's based on hate.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 26 July 2025

My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

Best holiday months / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

XtremeBG said:
Phenomajp13 said:

This is my last post towards you about your victimhood because I really don't care to entertain your victim nonsense. Your first part of your post makes no sense. Calling you dishonest doesn't describe your "personality" because obviously I don't know you personally. It describes your BEHAVIOR obviously because its what you DO on the SITE. I can speak to your behavior on the site because we both are on the site lol. All i have to do is quote you doing exactly what I am accusong you of (dishonesty). In a previous post on the last page describing you as dishonest by saying all you do is lie, I got 5 thumbs up! Again look in the mirror because your professional vicrimhood stance is wearing off. Your little jig is up and the site can see you are dishonest. Thats why you bend over backwards to dodge addressing your actual post while funnily enough trying to tell me how serious I take you despite constantly laughing (lol are consistently in my post). Im certainly don't take you serious, I do enjoy catching you in predicaments you cant wiggle your way out of, like how you said in the November 2024 NPD thread about how you NEVER made a prediction when your prediction was right on the front page lol. You are truly fun sometimes. Finally your obsession about my real account is weird because why does it matter? Im an animous poster to YOU regardless of which account I post from. 

As for the part where you claim you haven't said anything else on the subject is funny because its almost as if just a few pages ago you were having a discussion with Norion in this thread about how the DS might even be a struggle but regardless the point of that comment was me exposing how you will obviously agree with any stances of it not making because you replied to something Norion said to another poster. So yes we get it, you are still hoping Switch doesn't make it. Hence your I agree quote which 5 people agreed with me on poking fun at you for being so excited you had to do it instead of just liking the post.

As for the Vgchartz stuff, thats irrelevant because this thread is based on shipped not Vgchartz estimates. 

As for the last part, we will see ;) and funny enough you are yet again acting like you haven't been raising your prediction about the console for months lol. Again you are the only one worried, I am simply pointing out with all the uncertainty going on, its weird to see either side so certain. I'll reiterate, I think it gets there but unfortunately I do think hitting 161 is difficult but this thread is about 160. If they (Switch & PS2) tie at 160+, then we were both wrong.

Edit: Another good point from KLXVER, Nintendo is known for releasing late revisions after a successor so another one and game over. You literally need Nintendo to do nothing, thats why it makes no sense for me to be worried and you are simply projecting your feelings. 

If you don't care then don't post. It's that simple. Don't quote and don't post. You don't earn nothing from that. Cuz every time you quote me I answer back and you then need to be ready to answer at least a few posts down the line from me, cuz it get's long. So if you are tired, simple don't quote my future post, and we are done.

The thumbs does not have anything to do with whatever, cuz they are not factor. I also have gotten many thumbs up on my posts, on some even more then yours. You can go back and look at every post again and it's thumbs up. But this is not a factor at all for anything. Let alone it can all be faked, and you can simply enter from another accounts and give yourself thumbs ups. No one can be sure. But again, I have posts with more than your thumbs up, and that proves nothing. It seems you are very desperate, to hang onto that.

" the site can see " .. Dude, everyone is here for pure fun, enjoyment, some talk, about sales, games and even politics and other topics. No one cares about any of your accusations and nonsense you are writing pretty much all the time. Because you don't take it serious, that's why you jump on to everyone who says anything negative about your precious favorite Switch, or anything connected to "not reaching 160M" .. please.. 

About that NPD thread, you didn't explain yourself correctly about what you meant by "front page" and since I did a post the same or the previous day, on the front page about the US sales, on the article for the Switch in it's US sales, I thought you talked for that, that's why I was surprised about what prediction exactly you were talking about. I didn't realized at first you meant the one I did in that very thread, since you said front page, and I did one in the article on the front page of the site some hours before that. That is another failed try of yours to spin the things in your favor. And let's not continue with that stupid post of yours, since you were saying I am upset, since those 200k I was short on will help Switch reach a milestone such as 160M when it was at something like 145M at that time. Yeah 200k will make a lot of difference when 15M were needed. And you left that argument too, coward. And then I can't wiggle out ? okay.. every of our arguments is there, and everyone can see how when you don't have anything anymore to hang onto you just left. I don't have obsession with your account, I am simply saying the dishonest here is you. You have turned off access to your account that you are posting from now. Why you hide ? If you are honest what do you have to hide ? In the past not only me but a few other users here make a question of who you really are. Don't forget that. It's not only me. 

About the posts which I exchanged with Norion .. again you are trying to spin my words here, to look it like I've said Switch won't reach DS. When I have never ever said that. I simply said by the time it reaches it it will be crawling in sales. Which simply means it's speed will be a lot lot slower than it is now and it will be simply crawling. You can go back and read the posts again. Here is another example that the real dishonest person here is you, and you only. I am telling Switch will be crawling by this point, you are spinning it like I've said it won't reach the DS. No I am not hoping anything, cuz I don't have feelings for where it lands. I have feelings for games, I have favorite franchises, My feelings are when I play games I love, but what change will make in my life or on my emotions if PS2 is the best selling console for some 10 years more, or if the Switch surpasses it ? Nothing. I simply tell what I think it will happened based on my personal opinion, which is based on history, and on factors in the late life of every console. You are spinning whole this thing into feelings and personal bias or emotions. Not me or anyone else here. Maybe you have ones about that, and you are free to have, no one blaming you, but don't put that on others. The people are not like you. And don't talk from in plural form. We ? Who are we ? Why do you talk from the face of the others ? Why do you think that the people think like you and agree with you ? Don't you see that no one likes you ? You are alone. Again desperate enough to take those thumbs up as something .. then I should take mines on the comment about thumbs down button on your posts .. 5 persons agree with you, but 10 with me .. What does that means ? That at least double the number people who agree with you, don't agree with you.

The thread is based on the final number. The final number will be both shipped and sold. And how everyone is making his prediction is entirely to his choice. Many other users also have used the sold number on the front page of the site sometimes, in their posts, why not accuse them also ? Me using the sold number has nothing to do with my feelings or worrying or bias. The sale numbers in the end are the same as shipped, and as I told you, it's simply easier for me to use the sales ones, cuz that data is a lot more often available, unlike the shipped ones, but as I told you, from time to time I also include the shipped numbers as well in my post, so again one more failed try here to spin the things in your favor. Why the spins ? cuz simply you are the dishonest one here.

I haven't been raising my prediction for a good amount of time now yes. And in the past raising my prediction was done simply because of the circumstances, not because my sales analisys is not right. For example my 150M prediction that I hold on to for around 2 years if not more, would become true if the Switch 2 released in the end of 2024, like many expected. So it's a lot more me being wrong about the circumstance (in that case Switch 2 launch) than me being wrong about how the sales will actually continue in this scenario. When the release of the Switch 2 became clear I adjusted it, to a range of 155 to 158M (voted in my own poll even), leaning more towards the higher end, as I stated in some of my previous post - 157/158M. I am not accusing you you are not sure anymore and doubt if it will get there, I threw that at you in my last post, because when you talk about me being dishonest you include that example with the adjusting for something dishonest, but then you obviously do the same, since you don't stay true to your initial prediction to the end, and most importantly, I throw that at you, since the only prediction you done for the last 2 years is this, and I did at least 10, so the thing I said before, you don't have balls. It's very easy to stay on the side bench and attack and accuse, and judge, and laugh when someone came short once or twice (even though it may be more times right than wrong) but to not participate in the whole thing. You do 1 prediction, I do like 10, and when I came up short you came and try to make laugh out of it, while at the same time you don't enter into the fight and threw your 10 predictions or even 5, to see how wrong or right you will be. Then talk about how other are victims.

Yeah but reading that felt like a waste and distasteful.

Yeah, you can blame @Phenomajp13 for this. His attacks are based purely on hate. That's all. It's never interesting when it's based on hate.

Let me get this straight: All this mayhem between you and Phenomenajp13 is going on and on just because you made a prediction and later adjusted it and he didn't like you did that?



Since even japanese sales are kinda crashing in japan + the massive succes of the switch2 i find is verry highly unlikely its going to reach 160mill.

Ps2 will remain the king of all consoles so it seems afterall.