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Forums - Sales - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

Norion said:

The gap will shrink sure but they've forecasted 156.6m by the end of March next year so it's for sure going to sell over that much by the time it's discontinued.

I never stated otherwise .. and besides, the forecast is not 100% sure thing. We will wait and see. As I said my expectations are 157-158M in the end.



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Best holiday months / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

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XtremeBG said:
Norion said:

The gap will shrink sure but they've forecasted 156.6m by the end of March next year so it's for sure going to sell over that much by the time it's discontinued.

I never stated otherwise .. and besides, the forecast is not 100% sure thing. We will wait and see. As I said my expectations are 157-158M in the end.

You said it's starting to look like reaching the DS will be tough but we can wait and see sure. We'll have an extremely good picture of what its final total will be no later than May.



The problem for the Switch 1 is the best overall Switch 1 console is ... the Switch 2, lol.

Even if it doesn't have OLED display, the net end result you get from playing Switch 1 games like Mario Odyssey and Zelda: BOTW/TOTK is that they look significantly better on the Switch 2 thanks to much higher display resolution and then on top of that you have the larger display overall which dwarfs even the OLED model which is simply better for a lot of console games.

Even if you're in the market for a Switch console, the Switch 2 really is more than worth the $100 premium considering on top of being better for Switch 1 games.



Norion said:

You said it's starting to look like reaching the DS will be tough but we can wait and see sure. We'll have an extremely good picture of what its final total will be no later than May.

I said, that it will reach the DS, but the speed at which it will reach it starting to get slow and by the time it reaches it it will really be crawling. 



My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

Best holiday months / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

XtremeBG said:
Norion said:

You said it's starting to look like reaching the DS will be tough but we can wait and see sure. We'll have an extremely good picture of what its final total will be no later than May.

I said, that it will reach the DS, but the speed at which it will reach it starting to get slow and by the time it reaches it it will really be crawling. 

I think it'll start crawling after that but fair enough. I expect it to make it by the end of the year since it should still sell somewhat during this holiday season but 2026 will be all crawling for sure.



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Norion said:
XtremeBG said:

I said, that it will reach the DS, but the speed at which it will reach it starting to get slow and by the time it reaches it it will really be crawling. 

I think it'll start crawling after that but fair enough. I expect it to make it by the end of the year since it should still sell somewhat during this holiday season but 2026 will be all crawling for sure.

Also,keep in mind that forcast nintendo mentioned can be lowered if sales dont meet the demand, also it can also be higher ofcourse.

But DS is a 100% certain.



Soundwave said:

The problem for the Switch 1 is the best overall Switch 1 console is ... the Switch 2, lol.

Even if it doesn't have OLED display, the net end result you get from playing Switch 1 games like Mario Odyssey and Zelda: BOTW/TOTK is that they look significantly better on the Switch 2 thanks to much higher display resolution and then on top of that you have the larger display overall which dwarfs even the OLED model which is simply better for a lot of console games.

Even if you're in the market for a Switch console, the Switch 2 really is more than worth the $100 premium considering on top of being better for Switch 1 games.

Yeah, without a price drop I feel like the Switch Lite will be more popular, since it is kind of in its own market as a drivings cheaper more portable option. I don't know why anyone wouldn't save up a little more to get a Switch 2 if they were in the market for an OG Switch or SWO-LED.



I like it when my mom goes out of town because I get to sleep on her side of the bed. -William Montgomery

xl-klaudkil said:
Norion said:

I think it'll start crawling after that but fair enough. I expect it to make it by the end of the year since it should still sell somewhat during this holiday season but 2026 will be all crawling for sure.

Also,keep in mind that forcast nintendo mentioned can be lowered if sales dont meet the demand, also it can also be higher ofcourse.

But DS is a 100% certain.

I expect them to be within a few hundred thousand or so of the forecast either way. Slightly above 4m is my low end expectation and slightly above 5m is the high end one. The latter would keep beating the PS2 on the table but I do think even then it would still be likely to just barely not get there in the end.

Last edited by Norion - on 03 July 2025

Seems impossible now. With a price increase in NA and a very successful S2 launch i would be shocked if it passes 158 life time.



There's really no reason for either side to be confident. Either side can come up with a scenario to push a favorable narrative for your desired outcome. The tariff stuff is still an issue. August 1st is when I believe they go into affect, so whatever Sony and Nintendo have already manufactured is safe and hopefully both have been preparing a good amount of stock to fight the price raising. The stock will not last forever though and it just seems like the inevitable is coming (rising prices) and that will affect them all, not just Switch 1. Switch Lite for $199.99/ Switch 1 for $299.99 might not look very bad next to 499.99 Switch 2 and/or 599.99 PS5/Xbox series. So much can happen because of this nonsense, we really don't know what will things look like in the future.