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Norion on 02 July 2025
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XtremeBG said:
Norion said:

Keep in mind that the first quarter is mostly before the Switch 2 launched since it's from April till June so that one will be fine at least. 

This does not matter here, since I am talking about decreasing the gap of shipped and sold, and the sales were still dropping in comparison to the previous one, and the gap was still 2M the last quarter, so they will want to ship less than what they sold, so that they can shrink it.

The gap will shrink sure but they've forecasted 156.6m by the end of March next year so it's for sure going to sell over that much by the time it's discontinued.

RolStoppable said:

I see people are overreacting because of a limited sample size of sales data from Japan.

Nintendo forecasted a ~60% drop in global shipments for the current fiscal year. Famitsu sell-through for CQ2 was 668k in 2024, it's going to be just short of 300k in 2025, resulting in a drop of ~55%. Of course the yoy drops have been more severe since the launch of Switch 2, but the caveat here is that Japan happens to be the country which has the fastest generational transitions for Nintendo systems, so extrapolation to global sales isn't the best idea.

It has been talked about in this thread repeatedly that the OLED model will take a huge hit after Switch 2 is out, and that's exactly what's happening. Since Switch 2 launch:

Week 1: OLED responsibly for 29k of 35k yoy decline.
Week 2: 20k of 25k.
Week 3: 21k of 26k.

This has turned the Switch SKU sales contest from a no-brainer win for the OLED each and every week to an actual contest that the Lite has won the last two weeks. Sure, total weekly Switch sales are low, but the figures are hardly deviating from what was expected all along.

The generation transition part is a good point but it doesn't have to have declined as much in the Americas and Europe the past few weeks for its total weekly sales to start getting low. The main thing is they need to exceed the forecast to still have a real shot of getting there but so far things aren't looking great for that scenario.

For the bolded is it really not notably quicker than you expected at all? Cause looking at how the DS and 3DS sold in Japan for the first stretch post their successors the Switch's decline lately really has been fast, faster than the DS even so far. Admittedly it is early but I was expecting it to be a fair amount slower than that.

Last edited by Norion - on 02 July 2025