I see people are overreacting because of a limited sample size of sales data from Japan.
Nintendo forecasted a ~60% drop in global shipments for the current fiscal year. Famitsu sell-through for CQ2 was 668k in 2024, it's going to be just short of 300k in 2025, resulting in a drop of ~55%. Of course the yoy drops have been more severe since the launch of Switch 2, but the caveat here is that Japan happens to be the country which has the fastest generational transitions for Nintendo systems, so extrapolation to global sales isn't the best idea.
It has been talked about in this thread repeatedly that the OLED model will take a huge hit after Switch 2 is out, and that's exactly what's happening. Since Switch 2 launch:
Week 1: OLED responsibly for 29k of 35k yoy decline.
Week 2: 20k of 25k.
Week 3: 21k of 26k.
This has turned the Switch SKU sales contest from a no-brainer win for the OLED each and every week to an actual contest that the Lite has won the last two weeks. Sure, total weekly Switch sales are low, but the figures are hardly deviating from what was expected all along.
Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.
