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Forums - Sales - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

XtremeBG said:

The shipments are getting less and less every quarter now, because the difference between sold units and shipments will shrink with each quarter. Therefore the shipped numbers should be less than the actually sold ones going ahead, because till the end of 2024, there were more than 2M shipped units than the sold ones. March will be probably the last month Switch will sell close to or around 500k units only because it's 5 weeks. Otherwise it would probably go around 400k. So with ~500k for March we get to 150.2M sold by end of March 2025 (it was 149.7M with February). And since the difference is shrinking between shipped and sold, this time the difference won't be 2M or more. So 152.5M as @Norion said is not likely. It will be at 152M shipped at best. Yes, that means 1.14M shipped for the quarter. Reasonable drop from 1.96M the same quarter last year, for a system entering it's 9th year, and successor announced. With 152M shipped, the difference between shipped and sold becomes around 1.8M from little over 2M before. It will of course continue to shrink over the next quarters as well. So to summarize, yes that means around 1.5M sold units for the quarter, and at the same time close to 1.2M shipped. This trend I expect to continue over the next few quarters.

I've finally understood what you were saying back in our discussions in one of the Switch vs DS articles. Do you have the data for the units sold vs units shipped per quarter?



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XtremeBG said:

The shipments are getting less and less every quarter now, because the difference between sold units and shipments will shrink with each quarter. Therefore the shipped numbers should be less than the actually sold ones going ahead, because till the end of 2024, there were more than 2M shipped units than the sold ones. March will be probably the last month Switch will sell close to or around 500k units only because it's 5 weeks. Otherwise it would probably go around 400k. So with ~500k for March we get to 150.2M sold by end of March 2025 (it was 149.7M with February). And since the difference is shrinking between shipped and sold, this time the difference won't be 2M or more. So 152.5M as @Norion said is not likely. It will be at 152M shipped at best. Yes, that means 1.14M shipped for the quarter. Reasonable drop from 1.96M the same quarter last year, for a system entering it's 9th year, and successor announced. With 152M shipped, the difference between shipped and sold becomes around 1.8M from little over 2M before. It will of course continue to shrink over the next quarters as well. So to summarize, yes that means around 1.5M sold units for the quarter, and at the same time close to 1.2M shipped. This trend I expect to continue over the next few quarters.

I think it'll be about 1.5m shipped to hit the forecast but yeah the difference will begin shrinking soon. There's thankfully not much to go till Nintendo's forecast for this fiscal year is revealed since it'll be the most interesting one in quite a while.



May 8th is the next Financial report coming out for Nintendo.



CourageTCD said:

I've finally understood what you were saying back in our discussions in one of the Switch vs DS articles. Do you have the data for the units sold vs units shipped per quarter?

The shipped numbers are no secret to anyone. The sold ones are here in VGChartz. Till Switch was selling high there were 2M+ difference between shipments and sold units. It may even became 3M in 2020 or 2021, I haven't looked at that. But now as Switch is dropping from even 500k, it's normal it's shipments to become less and less, and therefore the difference gap to shrink.



My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

Best holiday months / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

Want to take a look back at my Switch sales predictions by year to see how wrong I was and how much Switch blew all my expectations:

My Prediction Before Launch: 30 Million

My Prediction After Historic Launch Sales: around 80 Million

My prediction by Mid 2019: 105 Million

My Prediction by April 2020: 113 Million

My Prediction by August 2020: 132 Million

My Prediction Early 2021: 146 Million

2022: 151 Million

Early 2024: 156 Million

Now: 160 Million


So compared to my original prediction, I was about 130 Million off lol. Never in my wildest dreams at the time I would've seen the Switch reach 160 Million. Insane



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javi741 said:

Want to take a look back at my Switch sales predictions by year to see how wrong I was and how much Switch blew all my expectations:

My Prediction Before Launch: 30 Million

My Prediction After Historic Launch Sales: around 80 Million

My prediction by Mid 2019: 105 Million

My Prediction by April 2020: 113 Million

My Prediction by August 2020: 132 Million

My Prediction Early 2021: 146 Million

2022: 151 Million

Early 2024: 156 Million

Now: 160 Million


So compared to my original prediction, I was about 130 Million off lol. Never in my wildest dreams at the time I would've seen the Switch reach 160 Million. Insane

It'd be the Switch's shipments numbers at the time of your projections



Man, it seems like the only real cheap console in the market will be the Switch lite and the standard Switch version. The difference between their prices and other consoles in the market will be huuge. I'm writing this after Microsoft revealed the increase in the Xbox consoles. Is the road to 160m getting easier for the Switch to reach?



CourageTCD said:

Man, it seems like the only real cheap console in the market will be the Switch lite and the standard Switch version. The difference between their prices and other consoles in the market will be huuge. I'm writing this after Microsoft revealed the increase in the Xbox consoles. Is the road to 160m getting easier for the Switch to reach?

Unless Nintendo decides to hike up the prices of the Switch as well ..



My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

Best holiday months / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

XtremeBG said:
CourageTCD said:

Man, it seems like the only real cheap console in the market will be the Switch lite and the standard Switch version. The difference between their prices and other consoles in the market will be huuge. I'm writing this after Microsoft revealed the increase in the Xbox consoles. Is the road to 160m getting easier for the Switch to reach?

Unless Nintendo decides to hike up the prices of the Switch as well ..

It's (Switch) more likely to be discontinued prematurely because the sales are already collapsing along with Switch 2 getting a price hike. Crazy to think Trump helped Switch reach it's height (PS2 level) with Covid and could cost it the chance to catch it with tariffs. What a crazy turn of events. 



When is Nintendo (and Sony for that matter) releasing their quarter report ?



My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

Best holiday months / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2