I apology to @Spindel, @XtremeBG and @Slownenberg. I didn't want to accuse them for having an agenda. Especially from XtremeBG and Slownenberg I haver read and appreciated many posts they contributed over the years. I'm really sorry, my post had the wrong tone. What happens sometimes is if I see or analyse something and can't understand why others can't follow my view, even though it's obvious (for me) that my view is on the right track.

My political comparison at the end was also not necessary. To counter that: Well, it certainly is much more realistic that the Switch will sell less than 155m than myself becoming US-President. (I don't even have US-citizenship.)

Some key things and food for thought.

1. Low sales!

The Switch's current sales are of course declining but are we sure this isn't expected and are they low enough to negatively affect the goal? The Switch's current trajectory of sales are on the poorer side relative to it's prior years but are they low enough and even if they remain poor up until September with Zelda and Zelda Switch Lite special edition, that's only poorer sales for 5 of the 12 months (April 2024 - August 2024). The remaining 7 months would be more than enough time to course correct starting with September flowing into the holiday season to still meet the goal. This leads to my next point.

2. Fiscal year goal!

Lets be clear here, the 13.5 million goal is verified for the Nintendo Switch only. They have told the world publicly including their investors, they intend to sale 13.5 million Switch's this fiscal year. Of course this isn't guaranteed but it is their goal and it looks quite incompetent to miss your goal which is why Nintendo always has an excuse when they do. It is a big deal! These are not fans, they are your investors. They do not care about Switch 2 possibly coming this fiscal year, either Nintendo purposely mislead them, lied, or are dumb enough to believe they thought they could meet their goal for Switch 1. No matter the excuse, it looks very bad and is likely a financial crime. They intend to meet the goal and historically speaking that was usually via price cuts, revisions, software, bundles, or any combination of the bunch. Maybe they do something else and surprise us but they intend to meet the goal.

3. Price cut, revision, or whatever!

This isn't about whether you believe in a price cut or not, feel free to doubt it, there are several posters that agree. It's just another possibility on how Nintendo could meet the goal. It could be a revision or bundles or whatever Nintendo has planned. What we are saying is that Nintendo likely has something and you should probably consider they do since they didn't set the goal for nothing and the current sales trajectory doesn't look like they will make it if they stay put. You would also need to explain why Nintendo would say publicly we expect revenue, profit, and software to decline significantly but not the hardware? 

4. Finally, food for thought!

I see a lot of talk about the successors release timing and cross gen games. What we have so far is a tweet from Nintendo saying we will talk about the successor sometime this fiscal year ending March 31, 2025. Some people view that as an announcement, while others view it as an announcement of an announcement. We should keep in mind, how often has Nintendo acknowledged/announced a platform publicly without a codename? That's what they would be doing here because we still have no public acknowledgement for Switch 2's codename. For Wii, we had Nintendo publicly acknowledge it as Revolution. Same with Project Cafe and WiiU along with NX and Switch. Im not saying its impossible but doesn't seem likely to me along with the fiscal year goal. Im saying this because there seems to be this obsession with trying to place Switch 2 in Q1 2025 or else it's a delay. Im saying its very reasonable to believe it was always intended for second half 2025 or beyond and nothing I see so far points to a release in first half 2025. 

Cross gen games also seems fishy to me. Zelda is the franchise that Nintendo on several occasions have shown to be the favorite franchise for this type of release and yet Nintendo completely declined this scenario with Zelda ToTK. Pokemon on the other hand has shown to be the last franchise from Nintendo to move to the next platform and has a history of releasing exclusively on the prior generation yet now Im suppose to believe Pokemon Legends ZA will be a cross generational release? Even if you say Metroid Prime 4 Beyond, is that franchise large enough to carry a console release or would Nintendo risk it being over shadowed by a larger franchise? Personally Im not seeing it and fully believe those aren't cross gen at all and are intended to be the Switch's swansongs. Metroid Prime 4 Beyond in my opinion has the higher chance but I even doubt that.

So for what we know so far, September has Zelda, October has Mario Party, November has Mario & Luigi, and January 2025 has Donkey Kong. Pokemon Legends ZA and Metriod Prime are slated for 2025. I certainly doubt Donkey Kong is the only release for the final quarter of this fiscal year (Q4 Jan 2025 - March 2025). Metriod Prime 4 I think is harder to predict it's release timing. I think historically its been September releases but honestly that is based on Metriod Prime 3 Corruption so im probably wrong on that. Pokemon on the other hand, I am very familiar with and can point out we have had a Pokemon Presents in February and August each year since 2021. So of course this isn't set in stone but I don't think its unreasonable to believe we will have another Pokemon Presents in August. This Presents would likely detail Pokemon Pocket (the new mobile Pokemon trading card game), we also need more Pokemon games on NSO (Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow?), and of course this could come with a Pokemon Legends ZA new trailer and release window. I do predict to get a release in February/March 2025 greatly helping the fiscal year goal. Pokemon is not the type of franchise to be announced in early 2024 and release almost two years later. A new generation of Pokemon was announced in Febuary of 2022 and released that November. Just my personal speculation, can't wait to see what Nintendo actually does!

Reason or not, it's a fact. And I expect to be a fact for the incoming months as well. As I checked now, it was down on both of these territories from start of the year not just now, it simply wasn't as bad (and don't count only May, April was the first big drop month, so two months in a row, maybe becomes a pattern eh ?) An really when you see the last two months in Europe were 140 and 158k. So Switch is maintaining level of ~150K monthly there. June 2023 was 330k. You really expect June to not be drop as well ? America's April was 125k before that it was 200k so even with some boost somehow, even if it does 150k for may in US, in 2023 it was 450k, so massively down .. June was 360K, again no way Switch is making even 200k let alone more in May or June. So it's again big drop. Then till October the months are 250 or 220k but with drop to 125k in April I really don't believe Switch will return to 200k levels. So even 150K would be a big drop. And as I said earlier, some small titles not triple A big as TOTK for example, will do little to no boost. We will find out soon enough of course.

"Reason or not, it's a fact." My point in mentioning that May is an outlier is to address the claim that Switch is "cratering" worldwide YoY. Yes, the Switch is "cratering" YoY with respect to the month of May...but it won't be "cratering" with respect to the full year. That is to say, we shouldn't expect a 60-70% drop YoY for the full fiscal year, but rather, maybe something closer to a 30-40% drop assuming no price cut

"As I checked now, it was down on both of these territories from start of the year not just now" Yes, never said it was up YoY. All I said it that it was maintaining pace in Japan, with around 20-30% YoY drop in all other territories prior to April. Is this not true?

"You really expect June to not be drop as well?" Nope. I've always believed that April through June && October through December will be where 2024 falls the most behind 2023. July is when the Switch stabilized out last year, selling less than 1mil in July, August, and September. I do think 2024 Switch can see marginal drops in July and August YoY, but September should be up YoY. (September was a bad month for 2023, coming off of three months of no massive exclusives. Zelda comes out with a new model in September, so I would not be shocked by relatively strong numbers for September.)

To summarize my thoughts on everything else you have written here, I do have to agree with a lot of things your claiming: It'll be hard for Switch to return to >200k/month in America, for instance. That being said, I anticipate >600k/month for the rest of the year. i do strongly believe consumer confidence and word-of-mouth will improve knowing that Nintendo still has several titles planned for the Switch, following the June Direct presentation (as *may* have been reflected in Japanese figures this past week). It was word-of-mouth that killed the Switch's momentum in April, with the announcement of an imminent successor.

But it’s kind of ironic, that now in the last 1-1,5 years of the Switches life time, I’ve become a proponent of Cliff (TM) after mocking that since 2017 :D 

Thinking the Switch will drop off quickly after it is replaced isn't really "The Cliff".

The Cliff, and specifically what made it so notoriously silly, was the prediction that Switch would suddenly collapse prematurely, either early or in the prime of its life, in a similar manner to the Wii U after holiday 2012.

The original prediction was never "there will eventually come a day where sales drop off rapidly" but first "Switch will drop off a cliff in 2018" which then morphed into "Switch will drop off a cliff in 2019" and so on and so forth.

Those sure were the funniest times on this site ... 

As for the "Cliff"moment, even now it would be hard to declare anything of the sort considering since the achievement of it's peak, the Switch has arguably one of the softest downward trend in console history.

Especially considering the evolution of the debate over the elusive 150M-160M milestone. 

What began as a dream/wish-fullfilment on the part of dreamers back when it released, only truly gained traction during the boom of the COVID years and successive years when the sales didn't curbed down as people expected at first.

Also, important to point out how most had the expectations of a newer system to release by 2023 or this year, which would've also curbed the sales. 

It didn't happen too, therefore here we are !

Those sure were the funniest times on this site ... 

As for the "Cliff"moment, even now it would be hard to declare anything of the sort considering since the achievement of it's peak, the Switch has arguably one of the softest downward trend in console history.

Especially considering the evolution of the debate over the elusive 150M-160M milestone. 

What began as a dream/wish-fullfilment on the part of dreamers back when it released, only truly gained traction during the boom of the COVID years and successive years when the sales didn't curbed down as people expected at first.

Also, important to point out how most had the expectations of a newer system to release by 2023 or this year, which would've also curbed the sales. 

It didn't happen too, therefore here we are !

I think it could follow similar sales of the PS2 now entering its senior years:

Fiscal year ending March 31, 2025: 13.7
Fiscal year ending March 31, 2026: 7.9
Fiscal year ending March 31, 2027: 6.4
Fiscal year ending March 31, 2028: 1.9

So around 170 million in the end.

This would need a price cut of at least $50 and Nintendo supports it with new games in 2025 and 2026.

Yep, it didn’t have an early peak like some thought it would and then went on to have a very steady, gradual decline. Instead of falling off a cliff, it’s more like gently rolling down a hill.