| XtremeBG said: Reason or not, it's a fact. And I expect to be a fact for the incoming months as well. As I checked now, it was down on both of these territories from start of the year not just now, it simply wasn't as bad (and don't count only May, April was the first big drop month, so two months in a row, maybe becomes a pattern eh ?) An really when you see the last two months in Europe were 140 and 158k. So Switch is maintaining level of ~150K monthly there. June 2023 was 330k. You really expect June to not be drop as well ? America's April was 125k before that it was 200k so even with some boost somehow, even if it does 150k for may in US, in 2023 it was 450k, so massively down .. June was 360K, again no way Switch is making even 200k let alone more in May or June. So it's again big drop. Then till October the months are 250 or 220k but with drop to 125k in April I really don't believe Switch will return to 200k levels. So even 150K would be a big drop. And as I said earlier, some small titles not triple A big as TOTK for example, will do little to no boost. We will find out soon enough of course. |
"Reason or not, it's a fact." My point in mentioning that May is an outlier is to address the claim that Switch is "cratering" worldwide YoY. Yes, the Switch is "cratering" YoY with respect to the month of May...but it won't be "cratering" with respect to the full year. That is to say, we shouldn't expect a 60-70% drop YoY for the full fiscal year, but rather, maybe something closer to a 30-40% drop assuming no price cut
"As I checked now, it was down on both of these territories from start of the year not just now" Yes, never said it was up YoY. All I said it that it was maintaining pace in Japan, with around 20-30% YoY drop in all other territories prior to April. Is this not true?
"You really expect June to not be drop as well?" Nope. I've always believed that April through June && October through December will be where 2024 falls the most behind 2023. July is when the Switch stabilized out last year, selling less than 1mil in July, August, and September. I do think 2024 Switch can see marginal drops in July and August YoY, but September should be up YoY. (September was a bad month for 2023, coming off of three months of no massive exclusives. Zelda comes out with a new model in September, so I would not be shocked by relatively strong numbers for September.)
To summarize my thoughts on everything else you have written here, I do have to agree with a lot of things your claiming: It'll be hard for Switch to return to >200k/month in America, for instance. That being said, I anticipate >600k/month for the rest of the year. i do strongly believe consumer confidence and word-of-mouth will improve knowing that Nintendo still has several titles planned for the Switch, following the June Direct presentation (as *may* have been reflected in Japanese figures this past week). It was word-of-mouth that killed the Switch's momentum in April, with the announcement of an imminent successor.
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