The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[Mar1217]

kilik said:

I think it could follow similar sales of the PS2 now entering its senior years:

Fiscal year ending March 31, 2025: 13.7
Fiscal year ending March 31, 2026: 7.9
Fiscal year ending March 31, 2027: 6.4
Fiscal year ending March 31, 2028: 1.9

So around 170 million in the end.

This would need a price cut of at least $50 and Nintendo supports it with new games in 2025 and 2026.

As far as we know, Nintendo Switch games will be present throughout 2025. It already has DKC Returns HD, a new Pokémon Legends and Metroid Prime 4 Beyond coming. It feels pretty obvious to me that we'll see a few more being announced until the end of this year. Not only that but there's the possibility of a few cross-gen titles with the Switch sucessor, meaning it could go beyond 2025 until 2026 at least, if they're willing to extend it that far. 

Considering the dirt cheap 99$ pricing of the PS2 late in it's life, the barrier for the Switch do seem more difficult to traverse due to its current price point. Difficult to think of Nintendo are willing to subsidize hardware profits and relegate it to software gains but we'll see this holiday. I do think the usual strategy of bundling MK8 Deluxe maybe has run it's course at this point.

zorg1000 said:

Mar1217 said:

Those sure were the funniest times on this site ... 

As for the "Cliff"moment, even now it would be hard to declare anything of the sort considering since the achievement of it's peak, the Switch has arguably one of the softest downward trend in console history.

Especially considering the evolution of the debate over the elusive 150M-160M milestone. 

What began as a dream/wish-fullfilment on the part of dreamers back when it released, only truly gained traction during the boom of the COVID years and successive years when the sales didn't curbed down as people expected at first.

Also, important to point out how most had the expectations of a newer system to release by 2023 or this year, which would've also curbed the sales. 

It didn't happen too, therefore here we are !

Yep, it didn’t have an early peak like some thought it would and then went on to have a very steady, gradual decline. Instead of falling off a cliff, it’s more like gently rolling down a hill.

The most important argument made by that camp was the Switch was suppose to follow the same "historic" trajectory has their other consoles which mostly had their peak during year 2/year 3. Problem is, the Switch was unlike any type of console they ever did up to that point, an untested market, because of it's hybrid nature. The unification of their software departments working on a single platform meant the software support could sustain their console regularly, thus leading to more potential sales.

Also, not to really salt the discourse but there was a few amongst the debates that were prolly afraid at the time that the Switch was gonna mark, an era where Nintendo could once again surpass Sony Playstation's egemony of top selling consoles. So they did they hardest fallacious analysis to make it "not happen".

Thus is born the "Cliff™"