It seems you haven't read all of my post, cuz I mentioned the stock issues in Japan. However that is a tiny difference maker, since Switch has started to fall close to 10k since last year there, and this year it won't hold on above 20k. This 26k week is outlier. Weekly sales is still a riddle I agree. But dropping from 70k before the holidays to 50k the first two weeks in January to 30k in the last one is not a good sign for sure.

Why it can't fall under 100k ? What are those example numbers you have given ? I am talking going under 100k in the summer, not this month or the next one. Just like it got under 500k and 400k in April of last year, and just like it gone under 300k in the summer, and just like it gone under 200k this past month, it will go under 100k, what is keeping it from ? Is switch immune to go under 100k or what ?

I am not exaggerating, I am even maybe being optimistic. I expected less of a drop in the holidays, it did bigger than that. I expected less of a drop of the US sales for January, I wrote 50k in the US prediction thread but at the end it didn't even hit 30k.. Of course I am not rock solid yet about 1.5M for this year just from January, since my last expectation were around 2M for the year. But the chances of 1.5M year grow more and more. If by March the downward trend doesn't stop then I can call the year 1.5M. For now I am still giving it the benefit of the doubt it can go somewhat above 1.5M. Either way both are short in the end for the 160M unless the drop in sales does not slow somehow.

The drop was so sharp because of having extremely high sales in in its 7th year, that doesn't mean it will be in the same level this year.

I'm glad though you agree partially. 

Japan is offsetting the collapse (owing to the 

price hike) in the USA.

And probably will keep doing it. 

I'm looking forward to the  sakes data. of the current week.

It's an outlier, but how do you explain that they restocked the expensive oled?