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Forums - Sales - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch (EDIT: See mod note in first post for new rule).

Tomodachi is coming be prepared !!!



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XtremeBG said:
tak13 said:

You're ignoring the fact that it was indeed almost out of stock in Japan lately and they restocked the oled(bouncing from 9k to 26k weekly sales) , which is more expensive than the 330$ region locked ns2 version eg, while lite had been the top selling one for several weeks, probably facing supply issues too.

Weekly sales baseline is a Riddle, but now i risk to say that Japan will carry it, (and imports from there too).

It can't fall under 100k, Europe 23k (Spain 3.6k. Italy 1.6k, France 7k, UK 3.8k, Germany 4.2k, roe 2.5k) Na 20k, Japan 50k, rest of the world 15k...lowballing.

3.6k prognosis is completely valid, because it is selling 900 per week in Spain , the others are a bit arbitrary and based on 3ds sales pattern). 

You are exaggerating the drop trend .

Tomodachi life will give it some life. 

Anyway, let's see in April their crucial forecast. 

It seems you haven't read all of my post, cuz I mentioned the stock issues in Japan. However that is a tiny difference maker, since Switch has started to fall close to 10k since last year there, and this year it won't hold on above 20k. This 26k week is outlier. Weekly sales is still a riddle I agree. But dropping from 70k before the holidays to 50k the first two weeks in January to 30k in the last one is not a good sign for sure.

Why it can't fall under 100k ? What are those example numbers you have given ? I am talking going under 100k in the summer, not this month or the next one. Just like it got under 500k and 400k in April of last year, and just like it gone under 300k in the summer, and just like it gone under 200k this past month, it will go under 100k, what is keeping it from ? Is switch immune to go under 100k or what ?

I am not exaggerating, I am even maybe being optimistic. I expected less of a drop in the holidays, it did bigger than that. I expected less of a drop of the US sales for January, I wrote 50k in the US prediction thread but at the end it didn't even hit 30k.. Of course I am not rock solid yet about 1.5M for this year just from January, since my last expectation were around 2M for the year. But the chances of 1.5M year grow more and more. If by March the downward trend doesn't stop then I can call the year 1.5M. For now I am still giving it the benefit of the doubt it can go somewhat above 1.5M. Either way both are short in the end for the 160M unless the drop in sales does not slow somehow.

The drop was so sharp because of having extremely high sales in in its 7th year, that doesn't mean it will be in the same level this year.

I'm glad though you agree partially. 

Japan is offsetting the collapse (owing to the 

price hike) in the USA.

And probably will keep doing it. 

I'm looking forward to the  sakes data. of the current week.

It's an outlier, but how do you explain that they restocked the expensive oled? 



tak13 said:

The drop was so sharp because of having extremely high sales in in its 7th year, that doesn't mean it will be in the same level this year.

I'm glad though you agree partially. 

Japan is offsetting the collapse (owing to the 

price hike) in the USA.

And probably will keep doing it. 

I'm looking forward to the  sakes data. of the current week.

It's an outlier, but how do you explain that they restocked the expensive oled? 

I don't know how it came to the shortages in the first place. So all I see is for some reason there were shortages, and then it was restocked because of which the demand was a tad higher than normal. It will go back to 15-20k levels in the next weeks. But again, this alone won't be enough. Europe and US both fell to 30k monthly. And there is no guarantee they won't continue to drop. Japan is not immune as well. We will find out soon enough.



My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / JP 2026 / 2026 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

Best holiday months / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

xl-klaudkil said:
Soundwave said:

Just too many outliers going against the Switch 1 at this point probably that are out of Nintendo's control. Trump tarrifs and AI memory shortage basically disallows price drops which will artificially slow down the sales the system should have even at this point in its product cycle.

I know right,its unfair ps2 had so much for it and the switch has everything against selling more.

Switch could have easily destroyed the ps2 in sales if it didnt had so much against it and nothing in favor of it

Seems like an unnecessarily petty response. For one, they never even mentioned PS2 so not sure why you brought it up and nothing they said is incorrect. At this stage, it should be entering the bargain bin, not getting a price increase after 8 years.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
xl-klaudkil said:

I know right,its unfair ps2 had so much for it and the switch has everything against selling more.

Switch could have easily destroyed the ps2 in sales if it didnt had so much against it and nothing in favor of it

Seems like an unnecessarily petty response. For one, they never even mentioned PS2 so not sure why you brought it up and nothing they said is incorrect. At this stage, it should be entering the bargain bin, not getting a price increase after 8 years.

You guys are all going to get thread banned for talking about you know what. Im not even going to say it because i don't want to join you



Total Championships: Nintendo - 4, Sony - 2, Atari - 1, Microsoft - 0, Sega - 0

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zorg1000 said:
xl-klaudkil said:

I know right,its unfair ps2 had so much for it and the switch has everything against selling more.

Switch could have easily destroyed the ps2 in sales if it didnt had so much against it and nothing in favor of it

Seems like an unnecessarily petty response. For one, they never even mentioned PS2 so not sure why you brought it up and nothing they said is incorrect. At this stage, it should be entering the bargain bin, not getting a price increase after 8 years.

Forgot about that,whoops ow well,maybe for the best i suppose.



 

My youtube gaming page.

http://www.youtube.com/user/klaudkil

xl-klaudkil said:
zorg1000 said:

Seems like an unnecessarily petty response. For one, they never even mentioned PS2 so not sure why you brought it up and nothing they said is incorrect. At this stage, it should be entering the bargain bin, not getting a price increase after 8 years.

Forgot about that,whoops ow well,maybe for the best i suppose.

Delete it while you still have time that's what i would do



Total Championships: Nintendo - 4, Sony - 2, Atari - 1, Microsoft - 0, Sega - 0

One thing to take into account with the year on year drops is that, at the last calendar year there was roughly a difference of 2 million between shipped verses sold. Now that the Switch has been replaced that difference should be somewhere between 0.5m to 0.75m (it doesn't make sense that it's still 2m, that's probably close to a full years stock at this point). So if Nintendo reaches a shipped figure of 4m like they're expecting for the calendar year, then their real sales for the last year are probably going to be somewhere between 5m to 5.5m. (The fact that they had stock issues only a couple of weeks ago would also suggest that they're not holding onto as much inventory as before).



angrypoolman said:
xl-klaudkil said:

Forgot about that,whoops ow well,maybe for the best i suppose.

Delete it while you still have time that's what i would do

Since you quoted them, even if they delete it, it still remains visible in the quote.



My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / JP 2026 / 2026 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

Best holiday months / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

XtremeBG said:
angrypoolman said:

Delete it while you still have time that's what i would do

Since you quoted them, even if they delete it, it still remains visible in the quote.

I did change it quz i indeed forgot that rule, but if i still get banned even when i fixed the mistake i made then so be it haha.



 

My youtube gaming page.

http://www.youtube.com/user/klaudkil