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One thing to take into account with the year on year drops is that, at the last calendar year there was roughly a difference of 2 million between shipped verses sold. Now that the Switch has been replaced that difference should be somewhere between 0.5m to 0.75m (it doesn't make sense that it's still 2m, that's probably close to a full years stock at this point). So if Nintendo reaches a shipped figure of 4m like they're expecting for the calendar year, then their real sales for the last year are probably going to be somewhere between 5m to 5.5m. (The fact that they had stock issues only a couple of weeks ago would also suggest that they're not holding onto as much inventory as before).