The quote is from the end of FY last year, and that comment referred to the 13.5M FY forecast that just ended .. at 10.8M

It's updated!

You can also see the update PS2 only chart here:

When will the Switch outsell the PS2 and pass 160M ?

Switch ships 153.1M as of 30.06.2025.
Time to renew the poll! Vote now!

Should be a little over 156mil by end of F’26 (0.75mil [Q2], 2.0mil [Q3], 0.50mil [Q4]). Beyond that? I could see 2.5mil in F’26, and >2mil for rest of LTD. This is all assuming Nintendo doesn’t do a price hike…which could be coming esp seeing, for instance, the recent price change in Canada.

i spoke too soon. Whether Switch hits 160mil now? Depends on how much of a price hike it receives. I wouldn’t expect too much of a difference if its only a $20 hike, for instance, though $50 would be problematic.

I think after the next quarter, it will become clear. At its current trajectory, we're looking at between 10 and 20 million more units. But that trajectory could flatten faster with the launch of the Switch 2.

Between the price hike and the Switch 2 I'd wager 156-157M is reasonable.

Japan weekly sales for the Switch dropped from 24-32k for March and April (2 out of 9 weeks fall out of this range) to 12-18k.
NA weekly sales were 20-30k and are now 18-21k.
Europe was 18-23k and are now 12-15k.

Switch shipped .31M to Americas, .17M to Europe, and .33M to Japan, and .17M to RoW
Next Quarter I see is .22M to Americas, .11M to Europe, .16M to Americans, and .11M to RoW for like .60 Million.
I feel like the Switch will do fine this winter, probably like a million.

After that I think it has like two quarters at .3-.4M and dies slowly gaining over 2 years to get to 156 million

Switch 2 is setting records left and right. Even though it will most likely fall short of Switch's lifetime sales, the consumer confidence is there in a way it was not at Switch's launch in 2017.
And these price hikes of Switch in the USA and Canada do not paint a good picture for Nintendo trying to get as many Switch units in the hands of customers as possible relative to needs for manufacturing Switch 2.
Switch could still sell around 161 million like I have predicted on my signature. It might even have 162-164 million units in it. But I voted 158-160 million units. Expect more third-party games to come to Switch for a while, but the hardware itself is on the back burner until it's discontinued around 2027-2029.