For me its i think its 2nd Half 2022.

It doesn't exist.

Doesn't make any sense to talk about traditionally what Nintendo does with home consoles when they've never had a home console selling close to 30 million units a year, let alone in years 4 and 5, and with no price cuts, that has a decent chance at selling over 150 million systems, and a new round of systems did nothing to slow sales down. There is no precedence for these kind of sales, so of course you can't just say oh they'll replace it at the normal time. That'd be crazy to do. "break their entire history as a gaming company"....that statement has no meaning. It breaks their company that they have an insanely popular system that will last longer than their previous systems.....riiiiiight.

If it doesn't come this year I don't think it will come full stop. I'll highlight one part of the Doug Bowsers statement

"Do you want to apply it on current existing hardware or platforms, or do you want to wait for the next platform?"

Not before the chip crunch is resolved.

Nintendo can't get more chips already despite being on a less critical node. An upgrade would invariably put the chip at the end of the waiting line of a smaller processing node with much more competing companies wanting chips in that node, which means much fewer would get produced than does currently.

As such, Nintendo is practically damned to wait even if they would have an upgraded Switch ready, as they can't get all the necessary parts for it.

If your logic was true, then they would have done the same with the last system that sold insane, the DS. It released November 2004 and sold over 150 million copies. It lasted 6 years and 3 months before being replaced by the 3ds. Why didn't Nintendo delay releasing the 3ds, if your logic holds up? Why not keep pumping out games for the DS in 2011 and 2012 and beyond, like you suggest the Switch should do with lasting until 2024 and beyond? The Switch won't pass the total sales of DS ever, let alone in the ridiculously quick time-span DS did. It's a fantastic selling system, one of the best ever, but it isn't some unprecedented performance that will change what Nintendo has been doing for decades.

Also, eventually, software won't be able to be as creative and the fans wil get bored of the latest entry in series that aren't evolving enough due to the limited hardware capabilities of either the Switch or the slightly better hypothetical Switch 2. How many times have developers talked about the secret sauce of *insert popular game* being the new found capabilities of whatever new system they produced the game for? And how many developers have complained about older hardware? There is no way hardware and software sales for Switch will be in 2022 what they were in 2021/2020, and 2023 will tank hard (Pro or not). Most people won't even be aware of the Pro model, and of the chunk that are, most won't care enough to upgrade. There will be like 10-15 million happy super nerds buying a pro when Nintendo could have released the next actual console and sold twice or triple that amount to all consumers. We need to stop hoping for Switch 1.5 and start hoping for Switch 2. That will be a glorious device that we can all buy, not just super nerds who care about tiny bumps in power.

DS was replaced in the third year after it's peak year. Which would have happened with Wii as well, but Nintendo pushed back WiiU a year, after it's lukewarm initial reception. PS4 was also replaced in the third year after the peak. The general logic isn't about the overall longevity of a system, but if it is already on a downward path. Switch so far could still peak in 2021. Or with the strong lineup even in 2022. But let's assume, it peaks this year, this would mean a 2024 release of the successor. I guess that will still happen. Nintendo will look if sales still rise or are decreasing and decide the release of the next system based on that.

There's definitely a business sense to bringing out a Switch 2 sooner rather than later. Especially with the scalability of software development and the fact that all companies actually strive to maintain profit and revenue at their highest levels, as opposed to experience years of continual decline. People mistake what has come before in terms of console cycles as some fixed intentional design versus a product of many technical limitations relating to hardware progress and the ability to support hardware with relevant software.

Even historically its worth noting that Sony shipped its highest number of PS1s (highest single year shipment of any sony platform) during the same year that the PS2 launched. Either way it should be expected that Switch will not resemble past console generations. It'll have an active life longer than any past Nintendo system.

Now this I could see, the Switch itself surviving well past its successors introduction. They could treat Switch/Lite like the cheap older brother to the new shiny device (which we call Switch 2 for lack of an actual name) and keep pumping them out along with studios wanting to make cheaper budget games that come out ob both Switch 1 and Switch 2, while the heavy hitters come out with modern engines on the Switch 2 exclusively. 

Well this year and last year are just going to be weird to look back historically because of the pandemic. No time in the history of video gaming has there been such a prolonged period of either forcing or implying that people should leave their homes as little as possible. We are what, a year and a half since this all began, and still there is a large amount of the population that thinks people going to parks and restaraunts as the source of all evil (at least in the USA). That leads to a lot of downtime at home for those fearful to leave and honestly has, in my opinion, built a bubble up within the gaming industry. I think in 2022 and especially 2023 we are going to see a major gaming crash as people focus more on doing stuff outside in a massive pendalum swing. I think there will be considerably less people turning on their systems everyday compared to 2019, let alone the years of the pandemic.