I'm not sure when but I hope it's this year so people don't have to wait much longer to get a nice upgrade.

Keep in mind they released the 3DS while the DS was still doing well. 2022 seeing just a slight decline from this year followed by the Switch 2 launching holiday 2023 would match that scenario pretty closely so very high Switch sales currently doesn't necessarily mean the successor is very far away. A holiday 2024 release date can happen even with sales still being pretty strong in 2023.

I'm not sure if anyone has had this take, but I now believe Nintendo cancelled the Pro. I think they were expecting Switch sales to be lower last year (by a lot) and not even close to what they have been this year, which would warrant a Switch Pro. They don't release new hardware, I don't believe unless their current hardware sales are tanking or at least diminishing greatly. We are still seeing roughly 400k Switch's sell every week and we are only in the second quarter, so why would they need to release the Pro at this point at all? To play some more games for the 10-20% (max) of their userbase that would bother to get the upgrade? I think not.

Instead, I predict they simply scrapped it and are instead going full throttle on Switch 2 upgrade that will launch 6 years after Switch, in March 2023. This will have tech in it that makes the Pro look like a joke by comparison, and people will have only have had to wait another 1-1.5years after the Pro would have come out in the first place. I think that small of a wait is worthwhile to consumers and to Nintendo so as to unify the playerbase of Switch 2.

You're right that they do have a history of cutting off their portable systems very early (GBA, DS), but not their home systems. Seeing as how they only have one system now I don't see them cutting off a system that will deliver huge software sales for years to come.

We also have Nintendo having repeatedly stated that they are planning for a longer lifespan for the Switch, which means no handheld-style early cutoff is happening.

We're four years in, sales will probably be about 30 million this year, we've only had one model variation and waiting for the second one, and zero price cuts. The Switch train ain't being replaced any time soon.

I suppose if they did decide to cut it off early, so as to not lose any hardware momentum, they could do a holiday 2024 or Spring 2025 successor. Switch sales should still be very robust in 2024 and then they'd go straight into having a new system on the market. The people who are talking about a 2022/2023 successor are nuts though.

Depends on their strategy. If they want no loss in momentum but willing to sacrifice many tens of millions of software sales on Switch and maybe 20 million hardware sales of Switch they could replace it around holiday '24 / spring '25. Or if they want to milk its popularity and user buying enthusiasm and let the upgraded 4k model replace the original model and bring out a new Mario Kart on Switch and do another 3D Mario and so on and fill out all the missing IP that Nintendo has then 2026/2027 would work (those sorts of games coming out in 2023/24 and then ready to hit Switch 2 with the next iterations in 2026/27/28. That way they could maybe have a powerful enough Switch 2 that can get multiplat third party games with the 2020 home consoles.

The fact that the rumored new model is 4k capable almost gives credence to the idea that a new system isn't coming any time in the next few years. Switch 4k model bridges the feature gap between Switch and the home consoles/Switch 2. So it makes a Switch 2 anytime in the next 3 years seem far fetched. They can sell the 4k Switch model at $400 when it launches in '21/'22, and for people who think the price is outrageous that's fine, the OG and Lite models are available. In '23/'24 they can drop it to $300 and still have a full priced system selling and get rid of the OG model. So that means going into 2024 there is absolutely no need for a Switch 2 at a similar price point to the Switch.

So you think they scrapped the upgraded model because Switch sales are so good, but somehow think they're gonna rush a Switch 2 to the market a few years before it is needed while Switch is still killing it....because Switch sales were too good for a new model?? Might want to work on the logic of that one.

Possibly upgraded model may be pushed back to next year because it simply isn't needed at all this year, and Switch 2 is pushed back to like 2026.

At this point a Switch 2 coming out before 2025 would require the legendary sales "cliff" to appear, which doesn't seem at all likely, and even if it did that'd make a Switch 2 probably launch holiday 2024. 2026 successor is the most likely at this point.

That's a lot of wasted money if they're this close to releasing it, and 20% would be 100% worth it. 

They could still release a new console two years later, believe the same happened with the PS4 pro and Xbox One X.

It has been rumored/reported on for so long I would laugh if it ends up not being a real then in a few years they announce the Switch 2. But Microsoft did launch the Xbox One X just 3 years for the Series X|S. 

If the Switch upgrade is actually a successor, then it's going to release between 2022-2023 and all 1st party games are going to be multi-gen for the first couple of years like what Microsoft is doing with their new console.  In that instance, it will basically act like an upgraded model while getting 3rd party games that can't run on the Switch.

If not that, then we aren't getting a Switch successor until 2026 because after all of Nintendo's major teams release games in 2022-2023, it's going to take them until 2026 before they're ready to go again.

I think their original plan was to announce it before E3, but they changed their mind at some point.  There were just too many rumors, including from Bloomberg news, in order for this to be totally nothing.  The real questions are "why did they delay the announcement" and "when will it actually come"?

Some reasons why they might have delayed the announcement:
-They realized that Switch sales are going to be up this year even without new hardware.
-Because of parts shortages, they realized they need more time to manufacture enough of the Pro model before it releases.
-There is a key game (or games) that they wanted to release with it to show off the hardware, and the game(s) got delayed.
-They are sick and tired of all of the damn leaks, and they wanted the leakers to have egg on their face.

Out of these 4 reasons, only the last one suggests they are going to release the model this year.  Sales are good without it?  Release next year.  Parts shortages?  Wait until after the holidays.  Key game?  Well what would be the key game?  The games most people commented on having good graphics were Mario+Rabbids 2 and BotW2.  Both of those games are coming in 2022.  On the other hand I've heard complaints about the graphics of both Pokemon BD/SP and Advance Wars Re-Boot Camp, and both of those games are coming during the 2021 holiday season.  It seems to me that the Switch Pro release is going to happen next year.

I think they are going to release the Switch Pro around March 2022, which means they'll probably announce it in January.  That will give them a full year to ramp up production and phase out the old model.