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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - When do you think they'll announces Switch Pro?

Dulfite said:

I'm not sure if anyone has had this take, but I now believe Nintendo cancelled the Pro. I think they were expecting Switch sales to be lower last year (by a lot) and not even close to what they have been this year, which would warrant a Switch Pro. They don't release new hardware, I don't believe unless their current hardware sales are tanking or at least diminishing greatly. We are still seeing roughly 400k Switch's sell every week and we are only in the second quarter, so why would they need to release the Pro at this point at all? To play some more games for the 10-20% (max) of their userbase that would bother to get the upgrade? I think not.

Instead, I predict they simply scrapped it and are instead going full throttle on Switch 2 upgrade that will launch 6 years after Switch, in March 2023. This will have tech in it that makes the Pro look like a joke by comparison, and people will have only have had to wait another 1-1.5years after the Pro would have come out in the first place. I think that small of a wait is worthwhile to consumers and to Nintendo so as to unify the playerbase of Switch 2.

So you think they scrapped the upgraded model because Switch sales are so good, but somehow think they're gonna rush a Switch 2 to the market a few years before it is needed while Switch is still killing it....because Switch sales were too good for a new model?? Might want to work on the logic of that one.

 

Possibly upgraded model may be pushed back to next year because it simply isn't needed at all this year, and Switch 2 is pushed back to like 2026.

At this point a Switch 2 coming out before 2025 would require the legendary sales "cliff" to appear, which doesn't seem at all likely, and even if it did that'd make a Switch 2 probably launch holiday 2024. 2026 successor is the most likely at this point.



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At this point, I think "Switch 2" will be a more appropriate name when it actually drops.

Spoiler alert....not anytime soon.



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I hope never. I just want Switch 2 at this point - a console with an actual future, not a dead end and pretentious name.



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I'm not sure when but I hope it's this year so people don't have to wait much longer to get a nice upgrade.

Slownenberg said:

Possibly upgraded model may be pushed back to next year because it simply isn't needed at all this year, and Switch 2 is pushed back to like 2026.

At this point a Switch 2 coming out before 2025 would require the legendary sales "cliff" to appear, which doesn't seem at all likely, and even if it did that'd make a Switch 2 probably launch holiday 2024. 2026 successor is the most likely at this point.

Keep in mind they released the 3DS while the DS was still doing well. 2022 seeing just a slight decline from this year followed by the Switch 2 launching holiday 2023 would match that scenario pretty closely so very high Switch sales currently doesn't necessarily mean the successor is very far away. A holiday 2024 release date can happen even with sales still being pretty strong in 2023.



Dulfite said:

I'm not sure if anyone has had this take, but I now believe Nintendo cancelled the Pro. I think they were expecting Switch sales to be lower last year (by a lot) and not even close to what they have been this year, which would warrant a Switch Pro. They don't release new hardware, I don't believe unless their current hardware sales are tanking or at least diminishing greatly. We are still seeing roughly 400k Switch's sell every week and we are only in the second quarter, so why would they need to release the Pro at this point at all? To play some more games for the 10-20% (max) of their userbase that would bother to get the upgrade? I think not.

Instead, I predict they simply scrapped it and are instead going full throttle on Switch 2 upgrade that will launch 6 years after Switch, in March 2023. This will have tech in it that makes the Pro look like a joke by comparison, and people will have only have had to wait another 1-1.5years after the Pro would have come out in the first place. I think that small of a wait is worthwhile to consumers and to Nintendo so as to unify the playerbase of Switch 2.

If the Switch upgrade is actually a successor, then it's going to release between 2022-2023 and all 1st party games are going to be multi-gen for the first couple of years like what Microsoft is doing with their new console.  In that instance, it will basically act like an upgraded model while getting 3rd party games that can't run on the Switch.

If not that, then we aren't getting a Switch successor until 2026 because after all of Nintendo's major teams release games in 2022-2023, it's going to take them until 2026 before they're ready to go again.

Last edited by wombat123 - on 19 June 2021

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Norion said:

I'm not sure when but I hope it's this year so people don't have to wait much longer to get a nice upgrade.

Slownenberg said:

Possibly upgraded model may be pushed back to next year because it simply isn't needed at all this year, and Switch 2 is pushed back to like 2026.

At this point a Switch 2 coming out before 2025 would require the legendary sales "cliff" to appear, which doesn't seem at all likely, and even if it did that'd make a Switch 2 probably launch holiday 2024. 2026 successor is the most likely at this point.

Keep in mind they released the 3DS while the DS was still doing well. 2022 seeing just a slight decline from this year followed by the Switch 2 launching holiday 2023 would match that scenario pretty closely so very high Switch sales currently doesn't necessarily mean the successor is very far away. A holiday 2024 release date can happen even with sales still being pretty strong in 2023.

You're right that they do have a history of cutting off their portable systems very early (GBA, DS), but not their home systems. Seeing as how they only have one system now I don't see them cutting off a system that will deliver huge software sales for years to come.

We also have Nintendo having repeatedly stated that they are planning for a longer lifespan for the Switch, which means no handheld-style early cutoff is happening.

We're four years in, sales will probably be about 30 million this year, we've only had one model variation and waiting for the second one, and zero price cuts. The Switch train ain't being replaced any time soon.

I suppose if they did decide to cut it off early, so as to not lose any hardware momentum, they could do a holiday 2024 or Spring 2025 successor. Switch sales should still be very robust in 2024 and then they'd go straight into having a new system on the market. The people who are talking about a 2022/2023 successor are nuts though.

Depends on their strategy. If they want no loss in momentum but willing to sacrifice many tens of millions of software sales on Switch and maybe 20 million hardware sales of Switch they could replace it around holiday '24 / spring '25. Or if they want to milk its popularity and user buying enthusiasm and let the upgraded 4k model replace the original model and bring out a new Mario Kart on Switch and do another 3D Mario and so on and fill out all the missing IP that Nintendo has then 2026/2027 would work (those sorts of games coming out in 2023/24 and then ready to hit Switch 2 with the next iterations in 2026/27/28. That way they could maybe have a powerful enough Switch 2 that can get multiplat third party games with the 2020 home consoles.

The fact that the rumored new model is 4k capable almost gives credence to the idea that a new system isn't coming any time in the next few years. Switch 4k model bridges the feature gap between Switch and the home consoles/Switch 2. So it makes a Switch 2 anytime in the next 3 years seem far fetched. They can sell the 4k Switch model at $400 when it launches in '21/'22, and for people who think the price is outrageous that's fine, the OG and Lite models are available. In '23/'24 they can drop it to $300 and still have a full priced system selling and get rid of the OG model. So that means going into 2024 there is absolutely no need for a Switch 2 at a similar price point to the Switch.



Dulfite said:

I'm not sure if anyone has had this take, but I now believe Nintendo cancelled the Pro. I think they were expecting Switch sales to be lower last year (by a lot) and not even close to what they have been this year, which would warrant a Switch Pro. They don't release new hardware, I don't believe unless their current hardware sales are tanking or at least diminishing greatly. We are still seeing roughly 400k Switch's sell every week and we are only in the second quarter, so why would they need to release the Pro at this point at all? To play some more games for the 10-20% (max) of their userbase that would bother to get the upgrade? I think not.

Instead, I predict they simply scrapped it and are instead going full throttle on Switch 2 upgrade that will launch 6 years after Switch, in March 2023. This will have tech in it that makes the Pro look like a joke by comparison, and people will have only have had to wait another 1-1.5years after the Pro would have come out in the first place. I think that small of a wait is worthwhile to consumers and to Nintendo so as to unify the playerbase of Switch 2.

That's a lot of wasted money if they're this close to releasing it, and 20% would be 100% worth it. 

They could still release a new console two years later, believe the same happened with the PS4 pro and Xbox One X.



Slownenberg said:
Norion said:

I'm not sure when but I hope it's this year so people don't have to wait much longer to get a nice upgrade.

Keep in mind they released the 3DS while the DS was still doing well. 2022 seeing just a slight decline from this year followed by the Switch 2 launching holiday 2023 would match that scenario pretty closely so very high Switch sales currently doesn't necessarily mean the successor is very far away. A holiday 2024 release date can happen even with sales still being pretty strong in 2023.

You're right that they do have a history of cutting off their portable systems very early (GBA, DS), but not their home systems. Seeing as how they only have one system now I don't see them cutting off a system that will deliver huge software sales for years to come.

We also have Nintendo having repeatedly stated that they are planning for a longer lifespan for the Switch, which means no handheld-style early cutoff is happening.

We're four years in, sales will probably be about 30 million this year, we've only had one model variation and waiting for the second one, and zero price cuts. The Switch train ain't being replaced any time soon.

I suppose if they did decide to cut it off early, so as to not lose any hardware momentum, they could do a holiday 2024 or Spring 2025 successor. Switch sales should still be very robust in 2024 and then they'd go straight into having a new system on the market. The people who are talking about a 2022/2023 successor are nuts though.

Depends on their strategy. If they want no loss in momentum but willing to sacrifice many tens of millions of software sales on Switch and maybe 20 million hardware sales of Switch they could replace it around holiday '24 / spring '25. Or if they want to milk its popularity and user buying enthusiasm and let the upgraded 4k model replace the original model and bring out a new Mario Kart on Switch and do another 3D Mario and so on and fill out all the missing IP that Nintendo has then 2026/2027 would work (those sorts of games coming out in 2023/24 and then ready to hit Switch 2 with the next iterations in 2026/27/28. That way they could maybe have a powerful enough Switch 2 that can get multiplat third party games with the 2020 home consoles.

The fact that the rumored new model is 4k capable almost gives credence to the idea that a new system isn't coming any time in the next few years. Switch 4k model bridges the feature gap between Switch and the home consoles/Switch 2. So it makes a Switch 2 anytime in the next 3 years seem far fetched. They can sell the 4k Switch model at $400 when it launches in '21/'22, and for people who think the price is outrageous that's fine, the OG and Lite models are available. In '23/'24 they can drop it to $300 and still have a full priced system selling and get rid of the OG model. So that means going into 2024 there is absolutely no need for a Switch 2 at a similar price point to the Switch.

They did cut off the Wii kinda early but their intent to have a longer lifespan for the Switch is good evidence for the chance of that happening. I just find it a bit bothersome when people say the high sales means a really long lifespan when that hasn't been the case multiple times before. I wouldn't say holiday 2024 is early since that'll mean the gap between the Switch and its successor is a bit over 7.5 years which would be longer than every other Nintendo console gap other than the GB and GBA one but I do agree thinking 2022 is possible is really silly since if that was happening there would already be rumours and whatnot going around about it.



I still think an announcement after the holidays and a release next March is probably the most likely scenario. It could still be announced ad released this year (I imagine that it would launch on the same day as Metroid Dread because that seems like the only decent Nintendo title this holiday to launch alongside new hardware).

At the same time, they don't really need it this year and with the semiconductor shortage, I think they should wait until next year. Also, Switch is still selling like crazy. Maybe do a price drop this holiday then. If it launches in March, I could see it launching with Splatoon 3. Would've preferred BOTW 2, but I'm doubting that game would release in March of next year and I don't think Nintendo should wait until the end of next year to launch a Switch Pro.



Slownenberg said:
Dulfite said:

I'm not sure if anyone has had this take, but I now believe Nintendo cancelled the Pro. I think they were expecting Switch sales to be lower last year (by a lot) and not even close to what they have been this year, which would warrant a Switch Pro. They don't release new hardware, I don't believe unless their current hardware sales are tanking or at least diminishing greatly. We are still seeing roughly 400k Switch's sell every week and we are only in the second quarter, so why would they need to release the Pro at this point at all? To play some more games for the 10-20% (max) of their userbase that would bother to get the upgrade? I think not.

Instead, I predict they simply scrapped it and are instead going full throttle on Switch 2 upgrade that will launch 6 years after Switch, in March 2023. This will have tech in it that makes the Pro look like a joke by comparison, and people will have only have had to wait another 1-1.5years after the Pro would have come out in the first place. I think that small of a wait is worthwhile to consumers and to Nintendo so as to unify the playerbase of Switch 2.

So you think they scrapped the upgraded model because Switch sales are so good, but somehow think they're gonna rush a Switch 2 to the market a few years before it is needed while Switch is still killing it....because Switch sales were too good for a new model?? Might want to work on the logic of that one.

 

Possibly upgraded model may be pushed back to next year because it simply isn't needed at all this year, and Switch 2 is pushed back to like 2026.

At this point a Switch 2 coming out before 2025 would require the legendary sales "cliff" to appear, which doesn't seem at all likely, and even if it did that'd make a Switch 2 probably launch holiday 2024. 2026 successor is the most likely at this point.

Them releasing Switch 2 in March 2023 is exactly 6 years after Switch 1 came out. Traditionally their console life cycles are 6 years roughly. That isn't rushing anything. Sales for Switch will absolutely start dropping off in 2022 and even moreso in 2023, if history proves correct again. My logic is based on history of previous Nintendo handhelds and home consoles, by the way. If Nintendo has a choice of pushing out a Pro in 2022 in order to achive a slight bump in Switch 1 sales vs. waiting until 2023 to release a fully upgraded Switch 2 which will be aimed at the entire market, they will choose option 2. It's not about how much a console sells lifetime, it's about what method leads to sustained Y/Y sales. 

There is no precedence for them waiting until 2024, let alone 2025 or 2026 to release their next console. That would break with their entire history as a gaming company to do that. Could they do that, sure, but why would they? They will sell far, far more Switch 2's in the years 2024-2026 than they would Switch 1's. Again, it's about sustained Y/Y sales, not about lifetime console sales. That's the road to financial stability. They don't want crazy high years and crazy low years, they want stability.