I still think an announcement after the holidays and a release next March is probably the most likely scenario. It could still be announced ad released this year (I imagine that it would launch on the same day as Metroid Dread because that seems like the only decent Nintendo title this holiday to launch alongside new hardware).
At the same time, they don't really need it this year and with the semiconductor shortage, I think they should wait until next year. Also, Switch is still selling like crazy. Maybe do a price drop this holiday then. If it launches in March, I could see it launching with Splatoon 3. Would've preferred BOTW 2, but I'm doubting that game would release in March of next year and I don't think Nintendo should wait until the end of next year to launch a Switch Pro.