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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - When do you think they'll announces Switch Pro?

Slownenberg said:
Dulfite said:

Them releasing Switch 2 in March 2023 is exactly 6 years after Switch 1 came out. Traditionally their console life cycles are 6 years roughly. That isn't rushing anything. Sales for Switch will absolutely start dropping off in 2022 and even moreso in 2023, if history proves correct again. My logic is based on history of previous Nintendo handhelds and home consoles, by the way. If Nintendo has a choice of pushing out a Pro in 2022 in order to achive a slight bump in Switch 1 sales vs. waiting until 2023 to release a fully upgraded Switch 2 which will be aimed at the entire market, they will choose option 2. It's not about how much a console sells lifetime, it's about what method leads to sustained Y/Y sales. 

There is no precedence for them waiting until 2024, let alone 2025 or 2026 to release their next console. That would break with their entire history as a gaming company to do that. Could they do that, sure, but why would they? They will sell far, far more Switch 2's in the years 2024-2026 than they would Switch 1's. Again, it's about sustained Y/Y sales, not about lifetime console sales. That's the road to financial stability. They don't want crazy high years and crazy low years, they want stability.

Doesn't make any sense to talk about traditionally what Nintendo does with home consoles when they've never had a home console selling close to 30 million units a year, let alone in years 4 and 5, and with no price cuts, that has a decent chance at selling over 150 million systems, and a new round of systems did nothing to slow sales down. There is no precedence for these kind of sales, so of course you can't just say oh they'll replace it at the normal time. That'd be crazy to do. "break their entire history as a gaming company"....that statement has no meaning. It breaks their company that they have an insanely popular system that will last longer than their previous systems.....riiiiiight.

If your logic was true, then they would have done the same with the last system that sold insane, the DS. It released November 2004 and sold over 150 million copies. It lasted 6 years and 3 months before being replaced by the 3ds. Why didn't Nintendo delay releasing the 3ds, if your logic holds up? Why not keep pumping out games for the DS in 2011 and 2012 and beyond, like you suggest the Switch should do with lasting until 2024 and beyond? The Switch won't pass the total sales of DS ever, let alone in the ridiculously quick time-span DS did. It's a fantastic selling system, one of the best ever, but it isn't some unprecedented performance that will change what Nintendo has been doing for decades.

Also, eventually, software won't be able to be as creative and the fans wil get bored of the latest entry in series that aren't evolving enough due to the limited hardware capabilities of either the Switch or the slightly better hypothetical Switch 2. How many times have developers talked about the secret sauce of *insert popular game* being the new found capabilities of whatever new system they produced the game for? And how many developers have complained about older hardware? There is no way hardware and software sales for Switch will be in 2022 what they were in 2021/2020, and 2023 will tank hard (Pro or not). Most people won't even be aware of the Pro model, and of the chunk that are, most won't care enough to upgrade. There will be like 10-15 million happy super nerds buying a pro when Nintendo could have released the next actual console and sold twice or triple that amount to all consumers. We need to stop hoping for Switch 1.5 and start hoping for Switch 2. That will be a glorious device that we can all buy, not just super nerds who care about tiny bumps in power.



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Dulfite said:
Slownenberg said:

Doesn't make any sense to talk about traditionally what Nintendo does with home consoles when they've never had a home console selling close to 30 million units a year, let alone in years 4 and 5, and with no price cuts, that has a decent chance at selling over 150 million systems, and a new round of systems did nothing to slow sales down. There is no precedence for these kind of sales, so of course you can't just say oh they'll replace it at the normal time. That'd be crazy to do. "break their entire history as a gaming company"....that statement has no meaning. It breaks their company that they have an insanely popular system that will last longer than their previous systems.....riiiiiight.

If your logic was true, then they would have done the same with the last system that sold insane, the DS. It released November 2004 and sold over 150 million copies. It lasted 6 years and 3 months before being replaced by the 3ds. Why didn't Nintendo delay releasing the 3ds, if your logic holds up? Why not keep pumping out games for the DS in 2011 and 2012 and beyond, like you suggest the Switch should do with lasting until 2024 and beyond? The Switch won't pass the total sales of DS ever, let alone in the ridiculously quick time-span DS did. It's a fantastic selling system, one of the best ever, but it isn't some unprecedented performance that will change what Nintendo has been doing for decades.

DS was replaced in the third year after it's peak year. Which would have happened with Wii as well, but Nintendo pushed back WiiU a year, after it's lukewarm initial reception. PS4 was also replaced in the third year after the peak. The general logic isn't about the overall longevity of a system, but if it is already on a downward path. Switch so far could still peak in 2021. Or with the strong lineup even in 2022. But let's assume, it peaks this year, this would mean a 2024 release of the successor. I guess that will still happen. Nintendo will look if sales still rise or are decreasing and decide the release of the next system based on that.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

There's definitely a business sense to bringing out a Switch 2 sooner rather than later. Especially with the scalability of software development and the fact that all companies actually strive to maintain profit and revenue at their highest levels, as opposed to experience years of continual decline. People mistake what has come before in terms of console cycles as some fixed intentional design versus a product of many technical limitations relating to hardware progress and the ability to support hardware with relevant software.

Even historically its worth noting that Sony shipped its highest number of PS1s (highest single year shipment of any sony platform) during the same year that the PS2 launched. Either way it should be expected that Switch will not resemble past console generations. It'll have an active life longer than any past Nintendo system.

Last edited by Otter - on 24 June 2021

Otter said:

There's definitely a business sense to bringing out a Switch 2 sooner rather than later. Especially with the scalability of software development and the fact that all companies actually strive to maintain profit and revenue at their highest levels, as opposed to experience years of continual decline. People mistake what has come before in terms of console cycles as some fixed intentional design versus a product of many technical limitations relating to hardware progress and the ability to support hardware with relevant software.

Even historically its worth noting that Sony shipped its highest number of PS1s during the same year that the PS2 launched. Either way it should be expected that Switch will not resemble past console generations either way it goes. It'll have an active life longer than any past Nintendo system

Now this I could see, the Switch itself surviving well past its successors introduction. They could treat Switch/Lite like the cheap older brother to the new shiny device (which we call Switch 2 for lack of an actual name) and keep pumping them out along with studios wanting to make cheaper budget games that come out ob both Switch 1 and Switch 2, while the heavy hitters come out with modern engines on the Switch 2 exclusively. 



Mnementh said:
Dulfite said:

If your logic was true, then they would have done the same with the last system that sold insane, the DS. It released November 2004 and sold over 150 million copies. It lasted 6 years and 3 months before being replaced by the 3ds. Why didn't Nintendo delay releasing the 3ds, if your logic holds up? Why not keep pumping out games for the DS in 2011 and 2012 and beyond, like you suggest the Switch should do with lasting until 2024 and beyond? The Switch won't pass the total sales of DS ever, let alone in the ridiculously quick time-span DS did. It's a fantastic selling system, one of the best ever, but it isn't some unprecedented performance that will change what Nintendo has been doing for decades.

DS was replaced in the third year after it's peak year. Which would have happened with Wii as well, but Nintendo pushed back WiiU a year, after it's lukewarm initial reception. PS4 was also replaced in the third year after the peak. The general logic isn't about the overall longevity of a system, but if it is already on a downward path. Switch so far could still peak in 2021. Or with the strong lineup even in 2022. But let's assume, it peaks this year, this would mean a 2024 release of the successor. I guess that will still happen. Nintendo will look if sales still rise or are decreasing and decide the release of the next system based on that.

Well this year and last year are just going to be weird to look back historically because of the pandemic. No time in the history of video gaming has there been such a prolonged period of either forcing or implying that people should leave their homes as little as possible. We are what, a year and a half since this all began, and still there is a large amount of the population that thinks people going to parks and restaraunts as the source of all evil (at least in the USA). That leads to a lot of downtime at home for those fearful to leave and honestly has, in my opinion, built a bubble up within the gaming industry. I think in 2022 and especially 2023 we are going to see a major gaming crash as people focus more on doing stuff outside in a massive pendalum swing. I think there will be considerably less people turning on their systems everyday compared to 2019, let alone the years of the pandemic.



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Dulfite said:
Mnementh said:

DS was replaced in the third year after it's peak year. Which would have happened with Wii as well, but Nintendo pushed back WiiU a year, after it's lukewarm initial reception. PS4 was also replaced in the third year after the peak. The general logic isn't about the overall longevity of a system, but if it is already on a downward path. Switch so far could still peak in 2021. Or with the strong lineup even in 2022. But let's assume, it peaks this year, this would mean a 2024 release of the successor. I guess that will still happen. Nintendo will look if sales still rise or are decreasing and decide the release of the next system based on that.

Well this year and last year are just going to be weird to look back historically because of the pandemic. No time in the history of video gaming has there been such a prolonged period of either forcing or implying that people should leave their homes as little as possible. We are what, a year and a half since this all began, and still there is a large amount of the population that thinks people going to parks and restaraunts as the source of all evil (at least in the USA). That leads to a lot of downtime at home for those fearful to leave and honestly has, in my opinion, built a bubble up within the gaming industry. I think in 2022 and especially 2023 we are going to see a major gaming crash as people focus more on doing stuff outside in a massive pendalum swing. I think there will be considerably less people turning on their systems everyday compared to 2019, let alone the years of the pandemic.

There certainly is a pandemic push on gaming consoles, surely also part of why PS5 and XBS tracking ahead of their predecessors launch aligned. But I wouldn't overestimate the effect of the pandemic, as it had positive, but also negative effects on gaming. Less money for instance usually cuts into luxury products. The Switch was on it's way to outsell 2019 in 2020, even without the pandemic. That is why the Switch momentum took off with Animal Crossing. Because that was a game people wanted. And even before the pandemic sales of games showed that Switch can wow new userbases, that never before bought into a gaming series.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Switch Lite was announced in July and released in September.
Hope the Pro will follow this same path.



Before E3.

Spoiler!
Won't say which year.


@Twitter | Switch | Steam

You say tomato, I say tomato 

"¡Viva la Ñ!"

I have the feeling that I shouldn't be saying this in a public place like this, but after some deliberation I've reached the conclusion that this probably won't cause me any trouble, so here I am. Still (just in case), try to avoid quoting me and please don't mention my name if you share this on your social networks. Having said that, here is (part of) what I know.

First of all, if I know this is because I was working for Nintendo earlier this year and there were some internal leaks about the new model of the Nintendo Switch, which I was fortunate enough to read. Take into account too that this information comes from a preliminary report that was already several months old when I first read it, so it may not match 100% the final product that will end up being released into the market. Also, I want to be crystal clear about one fact: the new model of the Switch will be nothing like the last few rumors, so those who are expecting 4K will be deeply disappointed. You're just warned.

Now, the main distinctive feature of this console is that it will not be created by Nintendo alone. Yes, you heard it: the new model is a collaboration, and a potentially HUGE one, with a company that only recently took a more or less big step in the gaming market. The name of that company is one that all of you know more than well: Amazon. Yes, you didn't misread it. Apparently, Amazon's goal with its irruption in the gaming market was never only to compete in the cloud segment, but also in the console space. However, they know that the console market is a pretty closed one, in which is very hard to just get in, starting from basically zero, and be successful. The fat cats at Amazon know that they have an enormous disadvantage against all their competitors, and they have almost no chance of becoming relevant on their own.

And that's where Nintendo comes in: Microsoft has Game Pass and xCloud, and Sony has PS Now, PS Plus and a collaboration with Microsoft with xCloud, so they're both competing directly with Amazon. But Nintendo's online infrastructure and services don't have such a big scope than Sony's and Microsoft's, and Amazon knows it, so that's where the main focus of their deal with Nintendo lies: they offered them their online infrastructure and in return, Nintendo would just had to accept a couple of conditions, one of them being exclusivity: Nintendo wouldn't allow in the Switch any other cloud-based or subscription-based service that the other two big competitors could offer them. This was, indeed, a preemptive messure against Microsoft. Or why do you think Nintendo never accepted Game Pass on their console? Several reasons, of course, but now you know one of them.

Also, the report I could read mentioned something about a cloud-based game announced at the Nintendo E3 Direct (which is probably what gave feet to the other rumors about a release date before E3). Does this ring a bell to any of you? Exactly: Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy is/was going to be one of the first games taking advantage of the new collaboration and the cloud power of Amazon. Now, I don't know if it will be an exclusive of the new model or not, but it's definitely a serious possibility, because that will be precisely the main differentiation factor of the new model; it will have, of course, a bigger screen, better battery life and upscaled resolution when docked (nothing too fancy, however), but the actual selling point won't be any of that: it will the brand new online services, including Luna and all its games. All of that, of course, will come hand in hand with a new subscription tier, more expensive than the current one and exclusive to the owners of the new model. The current Nintendo Switch Online will still exist and keep its current price, but it will now become the secondary tier.

The main point of all this, however, and the most interesting part is that this is just kind of testing the waters for both Nintendo and Amazon, so if this works financially for them, the next whole new console will build even more on this parnertship. Also, I said at the beginning that this new model of Switch will be nothing like the rumors you've heard so far, but that doesn't mean that those are fake: they're just highly misguided, because all the chipsets and specs (including the 4K resolution) that you know about were/are actually real, just only as a concept of their new console, not as the new model of the current one.

Also, regarding the name, forget about Pro, Plus, New or whatever... I said above that one of the conditions of this collaboration with Amazon was exclusivity when it comes to online services, but there was one more, and it's that the name of the console should be such that it could be easily related not only to Nintendo, but also to Amazon. So the name of the new model, as stated in the report (so this might not be the definitive one), is Nintendo Switch Prime.

But that's not all, because their potential new console was also referred to in the report with its own name, which (again) I don't know if it's be the definitive or not. However, the report specifically mentioned some good and very well-thought reasons supporting that name, so I'm inclined to believe that the name is actually the final one. Anyway, to sum up what I recall of this, the report stated that the name of the new console should reflect the consolidation of the Nintendo-Amazon parnertship, as well as making clear that it was the next step in the Switch family. And the resulting name that met those criteria was (I can see the negative reactions already coming here...) Nintendo Twitch. Yes, that's it; you're probably as puzzled as I was the first time I read it. However, there's something else behind that name that makes it interesting or at least quite intriguing: there was no specific explanation of what this meant or how this would translate into the final product, but the report clearly suggested that there is much more to that name than what it may seem at first thought.

And that's all I can share with you regarding the new Switch model and iteration. Take into account, however, that this partnership was not sealed when I first read that leaked report, so nothing of this is actually guaranteed and the new Switch model/console may not be anything like what I have just said. But that doesn't mean that I'm wrong, let alone joking; that would just mean that the collaboration didn't come into fruition in the end. And of course I'm sure that both Nintendo and Amazon have their backup plans in case this particular one doesn't work out, and those plans could be the ones that they finally announce and focus on. But... if I had to bet, I would confidently put my money in this partnership happening and in the Nintendo Switch Prime and the Nintendo Twitch both being real.

Oh, and I almost forgot: there was no mention of the price at all, but the Switch Prime was intended to be released in Holiday 2021, provided that some problems with the production of the chip could be sorted. Otherwise, the console would have to be delayed to 2022. As for the Nintendo Twitch, no release date was especified.



I have periods of social disconnection, it's a part of me that I need and keenly embrace. I'll still log in and read news and threads during those times, but I won't be (very) active on the site, so I apologize for any inconvenience that this may cause (late answers, bumps or the like).

Also...

Please, feel free to correct my English.

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