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Slownenberg on 23 June 2021
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Dulfite said:
Slownenberg said:

So you think they scrapped the upgraded model because Switch sales are so good, but somehow think they're gonna rush a Switch 2 to the market a few years before it is needed while Switch is still killing it....because Switch sales were too good for a new model?? Might want to work on the logic of that one.

 

Possibly upgraded model may be pushed back to next year because it simply isn't needed at all this year, and Switch 2 is pushed back to like 2026.

At this point a Switch 2 coming out before 2025 would require the legendary sales "cliff" to appear, which doesn't seem at all likely, and even if it did that'd make a Switch 2 probably launch holiday 2024. 2026 successor is the most likely at this point.

Them releasing Switch 2 in March 2023 is exactly 6 years after Switch 1 came out. Traditionally their console life cycles are 6 years roughly. That isn't rushing anything. Sales for Switch will absolutely start dropping off in 2022 and even moreso in 2023, if history proves correct again. My logic is based on history of previous Nintendo handhelds and home consoles, by the way. If Nintendo has a choice of pushing out a Pro in 2022 in order to achive a slight bump in Switch 1 sales vs. waiting until 2023 to release a fully upgraded Switch 2 which will be aimed at the entire market, they will choose option 2. It's not about how much a console sells lifetime, it's about what method leads to sustained Y/Y sales. 

There is no precedence for them waiting until 2024, let alone 2025 or 2026 to release their next console. That would break with their entire history as a gaming company to do that. Could they do that, sure, but why would they? They will sell far, far more Switch 2's in the years 2024-2026 than they would Switch 1's. Again, it's about sustained Y/Y sales, not about lifetime console sales. That's the road to financial stability. They don't want crazy high years and crazy low years, they want stability.

Doesn't make any sense to talk about traditionally what Nintendo does with home consoles when they've never had a home console selling close to 30 million units a year, let alone in years 4 and 5, and with no price cuts, that has a decent chance at selling over 150 million systems, and a new round of systems did nothing to slow sales down. There is no precedence for these kind of sales, so of course you can't just say oh they'll replace it at the normal time. That'd be crazy to do. "break their entire history as a gaming company"....that statement has no meaning. It breaks their company that they have an insanely popular system that will last longer than their previous systems.....riiiiiight.