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Forums - Sales Discussion - Not even halfway through this generation, Japan's home console market clinches growth

 

Japan is...

Cool 2 4.26%
 
Fascinating 7 14.89%
 
Awesome 2 4.26%
 
Kawaii 13 27.66%
 
Games 23 48.94%
 
Total:47

IcaroRibeiro, the Switch has this year surpassed the peak year of the 3DS in Japan in hardware sales, 2012. That says a lot. Next year has a chance at matching this years numbers of almost 6 million.



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IcaroRibeiro said:

Well, I'm forecasting PS5 to flop in Japan as selling as much as Vita. Looking at the dreadful software sales there is no demand for PS5 games and JP developers are likely going release their next exclusives on Switch

Plus I was keeping the 14 million numbers in mind that I've take from you OP, wasn't aware the right number was 17 MI

Either way, anything around 25% is already a sharp decline from the 8th generation, the fact Switch games are more expensive helps to mitigate the decrease in sales, just not sure if it's enough to cover it

My projection of 37m has Switch at 30m and the PS5 at 7m, so my PS5 number isn't much more optimistic than yours. Down 6m from 43m to 37m is a decline of about 15%, but 37m is a conservative projection.

What makes software more difficult to compare over time is the increasing share of digital sales, so I seriously wonder if we'll ever get numbers with high accuracy. Famitsu's estimates for digital sales don't have a good reputation so far.



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IcaroRibeiro said:

Rol, I find amusing how you classify Switch as home console or handheld based on whatever point you wants to make

Wants to prove how handheld market is alive and didn't suffered from competition with mobile? Then Switch is handheld
Wants to prove how home console market is not declining in Japan? Then Switch is a home console

Well, Switch obviously is both, that is not so difficult a concept. Just as humans are both animals and bipeds. Things can be categorized multiple times, these categories often aren't mutually exclusive.



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IcaroRibeiro said:

Rol, I find amusing how you classify Switch as home console or handheld based on whatever point you wants to make

Wants to prove how handheld market is alive and didn't suffered from competition with mobile? Then Switch is handheld
Wants to prove how home console market is not declining in Japan? Then Switch is a home console

Switch is love, switch is life!

Also, who needs a handheld or home console market when you can have your cake and eat it too. The 9th gen really has so much potential. They are outselling 8th gen right outta the park.



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IcaroRibeiro said:
RolStoppable said:

Imagine you are a game developer. If you make a game for Switch, who is going to buy your game. Will it be home console gamers or handheld console gamers. Then you realize that it will be both.

That's why counting Switch towards both the home console and handheld console market is not only fair game, but the only logical way to do it.

It isn't any different from the gamer's perspective either. When a console is so flexible, then looking at it as an either-or situation is nonsensical.

The only logical way is to either count it as a separate entity or comparing both markets together to include Switch sales because Switch belongs to both categories 

Otherwise you are double counting a single purchase as the hybrid aspect of Switch isn't generating more revenue because of the double counting 

8th gen

PVita - 5.92

3DS - 24.64

Wii U - 3.33

PS4 - 9.28

XBONE - 0.12M

9th gen

Switch - 17.06M

PS5 - 0.24M

XSX - 0.03M

9th gen needs at least more 25 million hardware sold to catch up 8th gen which factually won't happen unless some miracle happens and PS5 manage to archieve PS1 levels of popularity 

This conversation will be more interesting if we include software sales. If the software sales growth due to Switch hybrid nature is strong enough to offset the MASSIVE decline in hardware sales, then we can say JP market is flat or even growing, otherwise the market for dedicated hardware is just declining no matter if in home console segment or in the handheld segment as this distinction itself is now almost irrelevant

Generation will more consoles has more sales than generation with fewer consoles. More at 11.

Joking aside, the problem with this assessment is you're not comparing apples to apples. Sure, let's say total Gen 9 consoles sales are less than Gen 8. But Gen 8 has more systems. This means someone could own a Wii U, a 3DS and a Vita in Gen 8 but they would just own a Switch in Gen 9. So there really wasn't a decline since that customer is still in the market and still buys systems and games. The best comparison would be to remove the Vita and Wii U since you can assume those customers should be absorbed into another system (or try and come up with a factor to reduce them). Or, as you mentioned, look at software as this should remain consistent (someone may buy multiple systems but probably wouldn't have bought multiple of the same title). Otherwise, right now it's a flawed analysis because we should expect the sales of 5 systems is greater than the sales of 3 systems. 



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RolStoppable said:
Farsala said:

How's the handheld market doing?

It's doing fine.

Last gen's total: 30.41m

3DS - 24.55m
PSV - 5.86m

This gen's LTD: 17.06m

Switch still has several years of sales left, so matching last gen is doable. It's also worth noting that a market size of 30m is remarkable in a country with ~120m people. That's 1 in 4 persons who own such a device.

It's amazing that Ninty alone can manage the sales of previous gens without the help of any other company. I hope the switch reaches 30mil+ at least



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RolStoppable said:
Farsala said:

How's the handheld market doing?

It's doing fine.

Last gen's total: 30.41m

3DS - 24.55m
PSV - 5.86m

This gen's LTD: 17.06m

Switch still has several years of sales left, so matching last gen is doable. It's also worth noting that a market size of 30m is remarkable in a country with ~120m people. That's 1 in 4 persons who own such a device.

Definitely still has some work to do! Japan definitely likes games, but you and I both know that many sales from Japan go to other countries like China.



VideoGameAccountant said:
IcaroRibeiro said:

The only logical way is to either count it as a separate entity or comparing both markets together to include Switch sales because Switch belongs to both categories 

Otherwise you are double counting a single purchase as the hybrid aspect of Switch isn't generating more revenue because of the double counting 

8th gen

PVita - 5.92

3DS - 24.64

Wii U - 3.33

PS4 - 9.28

XBONE - 0.12M

9th gen

Switch - 17.06M

PS5 - 0.24M

XSX - 0.03M

9th gen needs at least more 25 million hardware sold to catch up 8th gen which factually won't happen unless some miracle happens and PS5 manage to archieve PS1 levels of popularity 

This conversation will be more interesting if we include software sales. If the software sales growth due to Switch hybrid nature is strong enough to offset the MASSIVE decline in hardware sales, then we can say JP market is flat or even growing, otherwise the market for dedicated hardware is just declining no matter if in home console segment or in the handheld segment as this distinction itself is now almost irrelevant

Generation will more consoles has more sales than generation with fewer consoles. More at 11.

Joking aside, the problem with this assessment is you're not comparing apples to apples. Sure, let's say total Gen 9 consoles sales are less than Gen 8. But Gen 8 has more systems. This means someone could own a Wii U, a 3DS and a Vita in Gen 8 but they would just own a Switch in Gen 9. So there really wasn't a decline since that customer is still in the market and still buys systems and games. The best comparison would be to remove the Vita and Wii U since you can assume those customers should be absorbed into another system (or try and come up with a factor to reduce them). Or, as you mentioned, look at software as this should remain consistent (someone may buy multiple systems but probably wouldn't have bought multiple of the same title). Otherwise, right now it's a flawed analysis because we should expect the sales of 5 systems is greater than the sales of 3 systems. 

However more consoles in the market means higher revenue from hardware units which means the market shrinking as far as hardware revenue is concerned 

I questioned whether having less systems in the market will lead to more software spending. If software revenue growth is big enough to cover the hardware loss, then the market is flat or growing. If it's not, then the market is declining

Ultimately, I don't think we can separate home and handled console markets anymore. Nintendo is the only company releasing dedicated handhelds, and their best selling model is a hybrid. What can be said however is home-exclusive consoles are failing to meet their past popularity, with Japanese customers choosing portable or hybrid models instead



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Mnementh said:
IcaroRibeiro said:

Rol, I find amusing how you classify Switch as home console or handheld based on whatever point you wants to make

Wants to prove how handheld market is alive and didn't suffered from competition with mobile? Then Switch is handheld
Wants to prove how home console market is not declining in Japan? Then Switch is a home console

Well, Switch obviously is both, that is not so difficult a concept. Just as humans are both animals and bipeds. Things can be categorized multiple times, these categories often aren't mutually exclusive.

I know it is, what I'm against is to make direct comparisons with older generations

This is a classic mathematic problem of comparing sets with elements in common 

In 8th gen or before you have the home console and handheld market very well outlined.

In 9th gen, not anymore with Switch counted for be it can deliver a false impression both segments are growing, when in reality is just Switch counting twice 

Torture the data until they scream what you want them to display I guess...