Looks like Japan is completely driven by Switch
Japan is... | |||
Cool | 2 | 4.26% | |
Fascinating | 7 | 14.89% | |
Awesome | 2 | 4.26% | |
Kawaii | 13 | 27.66% | |
Games | 23 | 48.94% | |
Total: | 47 |
At the end of its life the Switch will have sold at least 30 million units and the PS5 6-8 million. The PS2 sold 21 million units in Japan. If the PS5 sold that much, the 9th gen would have numbers way beyond 50 million. For the PS5 and Switch combined to sell less than 28 million units would need the Switch to stop selling in half a year. The market in Japan is performing as good, if not even better than before the Switch launched. I believe, that the Seitch has a chance at surpassing the total sales numbers of the Gameboy at 32.47 million and the DS at 32.99 million. It's only halfway through its life after all.
IcaroRibeiro, the Switch has this year surpassed the peak year of the 3DS in Japan in hardware sales, 2012. That says a lot. Next year has a chance at matching this years numbers of almost 6 million.
IcaroRibeiro said: Rol, I find amusing how you classify Switch as home console or handheld based on whatever point you wants to make |
Well, Switch obviously is both, that is not so difficult a concept. Just as humans are both animals and bipeds. Things can be categorized multiple times, these categories often aren't mutually exclusive.
IcaroRibeiro said: Rol, I find amusing how you classify Switch as home console or handheld based on whatever point you wants to make |
Switch is love, switch is life!
Also, who needs a handheld or home console market when you can have your cake and eat it too. The 9th gen really has so much potential. They are outselling 8th gen right outta the park.
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IcaroRibeiro said:
The only logical way is to either count it as a separate entity or comparing both markets together to include Switch sales because Switch belongs to both categories Otherwise you are double counting a single purchase as the hybrid aspect of Switch isn't generating more revenue because of the double counting 8th gen PVita - 5.92 3DS - 24.64 Wii U - 3.33 PS4 - 9.28 XBONE - 0.12M 9th gen Switch - 17.06M PS5 - 0.24M XSX - 0.03M 9th gen needs at least more 25 million hardware sold to catch up 8th gen which factually won't happen unless some miracle happens and PS5 manage to archieve PS1 levels of popularity This conversation will be more interesting if we include software sales. If the software sales growth due to Switch hybrid nature is strong enough to offset the MASSIVE decline in hardware sales, then we can say JP market is flat or even growing, otherwise the market for dedicated hardware is just declining no matter if in home console segment or in the handheld segment as this distinction itself is now almost irrelevant |
Generation will more consoles has more sales than generation with fewer consoles. More at 11.
Joking aside, the problem with this assessment is you're not comparing apples to apples. Sure, let's say total Gen 9 consoles sales are less than Gen 8. But Gen 8 has more systems. This means someone could own a Wii U, a 3DS and a Vita in Gen 8 but they would just own a Switch in Gen 9. So there really wasn't a decline since that customer is still in the market and still buys systems and games. The best comparison would be to remove the Vita and Wii U since you can assume those customers should be absorbed into another system (or try and come up with a factor to reduce them). Or, as you mentioned, look at software as this should remain consistent (someone may buy multiple systems but probably wouldn't have bought multiple of the same title). Otherwise, right now it's a flawed analysis because we should expect the sales of 5 systems is greater than the sales of 3 systems.
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RolStoppable said:
It's doing fine. Last gen's total: 30.41m 3DS - 24.55m This gen's LTD: 17.06m Switch still has several years of sales left, so matching last gen is doable. It's also worth noting that a market size of 30m is remarkable in a country with ~120m people. That's 1 in 4 persons who own such a device. |
It's amazing that Ninty alone can manage the sales of previous gens without the help of any other company. I hope the switch reaches 30mil+ at least
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RolStoppable said:
It's doing fine. Last gen's total: 30.41m 3DS - 24.55m This gen's LTD: 17.06m Switch still has several years of sales left, so matching last gen is doable. It's also worth noting that a market size of 30m is remarkable in a country with ~120m people. That's 1 in 4 persons who own such a device. |
Definitely still has some work to do! Japan definitely likes games, but you and I both know that many sales from Japan go to other countries like China.
VideoGameAccountant said:
Generation will more consoles has more sales than generation with fewer consoles. More at 11. Joking aside, the problem with this assessment is you're not comparing apples to apples. Sure, let's say total Gen 9 consoles sales are less than Gen 8. But Gen 8 has more systems. This means someone could own a Wii U, a 3DS and a Vita in Gen 8 but they would just own a Switch in Gen 9. So there really wasn't a decline since that customer is still in the market and still buys systems and games. The best comparison would be to remove the Vita and Wii U since you can assume those customers should be absorbed into another system (or try and come up with a factor to reduce them). Or, as you mentioned, look at software as this should remain consistent (someone may buy multiple systems but probably wouldn't have bought multiple of the same title). Otherwise, right now it's a flawed analysis because we should expect the sales of 5 systems is greater than the sales of 3 systems. |
However more consoles in the market means higher revenue from hardware units which means the market shrinking as far as hardware revenue is concerned
I questioned whether having less systems in the market will lead to more software spending. If software revenue growth is big enough to cover the hardware loss, then the market is flat or growing. If it's not, then the market is declining
Ultimately, I don't think we can separate home and handled console markets anymore. Nintendo is the only company releasing dedicated handhelds, and their best selling model is a hybrid. What can be said however is home-exclusive consoles are failing to meet their past popularity, with Japanese customers choosing portable or hybrid models instead
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