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Forums - Sales Discussion - Not even halfway through this generation, Japan's home console market clinches growth

 

Japan is...

Cool 2 4.26%
 
Fascinating 7 14.89%
 
Awesome 2 4.26%
 
Kawaii 13 27.66%
 
Games 23 48.94%
 
Total:47
Farsala said:

How's the handheld market doing?

It's doing fine.

Last gen's total: 30.41m

3DS - 24.55m
PSV - 5.86m

This gen's LTD: 17.06m

Switch still has several years of sales left, so matching last gen is doable. It's also worth noting that a market size of 30m is remarkable in a country with ~120m people. That's 1 in 4 persons who own such a device.



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Farsala said:

How's the handheld market doing?

This gen's total: 14.04m

Switch - 14.04m



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RolStoppable said:

There's no need to worry about Japan's home console market anymore, because things are looking up. Here are a bunch of Famitsu sales numbers as of December 20th, 2020.

Last gen's total: 12.68m

PS4 - 9.27m
WIU - 3.30m
XB1 - 0.11m

The PS4 isn't done yet, so the final total will be a bit higher than the above, anywhere between 12.70 and 13.00m.

This gen's total: 14.31m

Switch - 14.04m
PS5 - 0.24m
XBS - 0.03m

And this gen isn't even remotely close to its end. Way to go, Japan.

Simple question to spur some discussion: Are you still worried about Japan's home console market?

One problem with this is the last gen's numbers don't include the 3DS. While not a home console, it makes the comparison a little unfair because the reason the Switch is killing it is, in part, due to the fact it's a handheld and handhelds do well over there.

Still, to your point, I think it's never been an issue with the game market shrinking but shifting. Japan has moved away from the traditional consoles and this is likely what spurred Nintendo to create the Switch and perhaps even the Wii U. Sony was smart to kill their handheld line as they can focus on one system, but the Catch-22 was that they gave up the Japanese market. Nintendo did the same thing (and perhaps had the same idea before Sony killed the PSP), but it was clear they didn't want to give up their market at home. The idea clearly worked as now Switch does well in all markets, where Sony is going to end up like Microsoft and rely on a few Markets. Switch can sell in any market and is now doing well in China.

To your question, there is nothing to be worried about. Japan's market is clearly doing fine. It's more that they needed something that appealed to them. The same could be said about China (CCP rules aside) and Korea. It's probably better to look at the "Game System" market as a whole (which is basically all games less PC and phones). People don't like to do this because Sony has never done well in the handheld market. With Switch, the old distinctions are irrelevant. Japan's Game System market is doing perfectly fine and will continue to do fine. 



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RolStoppable said:
IcaroRibeiro said:

Rol, I find amusing how you classify Switch as home console or handheld based on whatever point you wants to make

Wants to prove how handheld market is alive and didn't suffered from competition with mobile? Then Switch is handheld
Wants to prove how home console market is not declining in Japan? Then Switch is a home console

Imagine you are a game developer. If you make a game for Switch, who is going to buy your game. Will it be home console gamers or handheld console gamers. Then you realize that it will be both.

That's why counting Switch towards both the home console and handheld console market is not only fair game, but the only logical way to do it.

It isn't any different from the gamer's perspective either. When a console is so flexible, then looking at it as an either-or situation is nonsensical.

The only logical way is to either count it as a separate entity or comparing both markets together to include Switch sales because Switch belongs to both categories 

Otherwise you are double counting a single purchase as the hybrid aspect of Switch isn't generating more revenue because of the double counting 

8th gen

PVita - 5.92

3DS - 24.64

Wii U - 3.33

PS4 - 9.28

XBONE - 0.12M

9th gen

Switch - 17.06M

PS5 - 0.24M

XSX - 0.03M

9th gen needs at least more 25 million hardware sold to catch up 8th gen which factually won't happen unless some miracle happens and PS5 manage to archieve PS1 levels of popularity 

This conversation will be more interesting if we include software sales. If the software sales growth due to Switch hybrid nature is strong enough to offset the MASSIVE decline in hardware sales, then we can say JP market is flat or even growing, otherwise the market for dedicated hardware is just declining no matter if in home console segment or in the handheld segment as this distinction itself is now almost irrelevant

Last edited by IcaroRibeiro - on 02 January 2021

IcaroRibeiro, you forgot to include the Switch Lite in 9th gen, since you also count pure handhelds. With the Lite it is at 17.06m.



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IcaroRibeiro said:
RolStoppable said:

Imagine you are a game developer. If you make a game for Switch, who is going to buy your game. Will it be home console gamers or handheld console gamers. Then you realize that it will be both.

That's why counting Switch towards both the home console and handheld console market is not only fair game, but the only logical way to do it.

It isn't any different from the gamer's perspective either. When a console is so flexible, then looking at it as an either-or situation is nonsensical.

The only logical way is to either count it as a separate entity or comparing both markets together to include Switch sales because Switch belongs to both categories 

Otherwise you are double counting a single purchase as the hybrid aspect of Switch isn't generating more revenue because of the double counting 

8th gen

PVita - 5.92

3DS - 24.64

Wii U - 3.33

PS4 - 9.28

XBONE - 0.12M

9th gen

Switch - 14.04M

PS5 - 0.24M

XSX - 0.03M

9th gen needs at least more 28 million hardware sold to catch up 8th gen which factually won't happen unless some miracle happens and PS5 manage to archieve PS2 levels of popularity 

This conversation will be more interesting if we include software sales. If the software sales growth due to Switch hybrid nature is strong enough to offset the MASSIVE decline in hardware sales, then we can say JP market is flat or even growing, otherwise the market for dedicated hardware is just declining no matter if in home console segment or in the handheld segment as this distinction itself is now almost irrelevant

No idea where you see a MASSIVE decline happening, because Switch and the PS5 should add up to at least 37m when all is said and done, that would be only 6m below last gen.

I don't think anyone needs to worry about software revenue either. For one, fewer consoles on the market leaves more money to be spent on games, and two, Switch games cost more than 3DS software (last gen's clear leader in game sales).



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

Kakadu18 said:

IcaroRibeiro, you forgot to include the Switch Lite in 9th gen, since you also count pure handhelds. With the Lite it is at 17.06m.

Thank you, fixed now



RolStoppable said:
IcaroRibeiro said:

The only logical way is to either count it as a separate entity or comparing both markets together to include Switch sales because Switch belongs to both categories 

Otherwise you are double counting a single purchase as the hybrid aspect of Switch isn't generating more revenue because of the double counting 

8th gen

PVita - 5.92

3DS - 24.64

Wii U - 3.33

PS4 - 9.28

XBONE - 0.12M

9th gen

Switch - 14.04M

PS5 - 0.24M

XSX - 0.03M

9th gen needs at least more 28 million hardware sold to catch up 8th gen which factually won't happen unless some miracle happens and PS5 manage to archieve PS2 levels of popularity 

This conversation will be more interesting if we include software sales. If the software sales growth due to Switch hybrid nature is strong enough to offset the MASSIVE decline in hardware sales, then we can say JP market is flat or even growing, otherwise the market for dedicated hardware is just declining no matter if in home console segment or in the handheld segment as this distinction itself is now almost irrelevant

No idea where you see a MASSIVE decline happening, because Switch and the PS5 should add up to at least 37m when all is said and done, that would be only 6m below last gen.

I don't think anyone needs to worry about software revenue either. For one, fewer consoles on the market leaves more money to be spent on games, and two, Switch games cost more than 3DS software (last gen's clear leader in game sales).

Well, I'm forecasting PS5 to flop in Japan as selling as much as Vita. Looking at the dreadful software sales there is no demand for PS5 games and JP developers are likely going release their next exclusives on Switch

Plus I was keeping the 14 million numbers in mind that I've take from you OP, wasn't aware the right number was 17 MI

Either way, anything around 25% is already a sharp decline from the 8th generation, the fact Switch games are more expensive helps to mitigate the decrease in sales, just not sure if it's enough to cover it



Looks like Japan is completely driven by Switch



At the end of its life the Switch will have sold at least 30 million units and the PS5 6-8 million. The PS2 sold 21 million units in Japan. If the PS5 sold that much, the 9th gen would have numbers way beyond 50 million. For the PS5 and Switch combined to sell less than 28 million units would need the Switch to stop selling in half a year. The market in Japan is performing as good, if not even better than before the Switch launched. I believe, that the Seitch has a chance at surpassing the total sales numbers of the Gameboy at 32.47 million and the DS at 32.99 million. It's only halfway through its life after all.