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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will PS5 and Series X have a bigger opening than Switch?

 

Wich will have the biggest launch window (2 months)?

Switch (March-May 2017) 12 21.82%
 
Xbox Series (November-Dec... 2 3.64%
 
Playstation 5 (No release date yet, 2020) 41 74.55%
 
Total:55

PS5 with Spider-Man - definitely.

XBOX - not a chance without Halo.



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DonFerrari said:

It is 2 months. Switch launched March 3rd so for two full months on fiscal weeks would be May 3rd, not sure what mind fart I did to put June there.

About the holiday launch, you know that Switch didn't sell more on launch because it was out of inventory. It did in fact had basically a launch and holiday period while the other 2 had both together. If you sum March+April for Sony and MS with their launch versus Switch launch+1st holiday it is clear that it benefited Switch.

Eh, Switch sells better than the PS4 in general. It did so in year 1, year 2, year 3 and will do so again in the current year 4, so assigning the year 1 win to a non-holiday launch is a bit reaching.

If a non-holiday launch would be inherently beneficial, then both Sony and Microsoft would have targeted that with their upcoming consoles, but there has never been any word (be it official or rumored) that a non-holiday launch was ever in consideration by either one of them.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

Like you said yourself even the Xbone despite the controversy that haunted it at the time sold more than the Switch in its first two months, so its very hard to imagine a scenario where both of the new consoles don't do the same.

If you want specific predictions I'll say:
PS5 - 5,6 mil (assuming it launches in Japan right away unlike the PS4)
Series X - 3,7 mil



Major Switch Titles Launch Aligned

2021 predictions:

  • Switch - 27m
  • PS5 - 15.5m
  • Xbox Series - 10m

RolStoppable said:
DonFerrari said:

It is 2 months. Switch launched March 3rd so for two full months on fiscal weeks would be May 3rd, not sure what mind fart I did to put June there.

About the holiday launch, you know that Switch didn't sell more on launch because it was out of inventory. It did in fact had basically a launch and holiday period while the other 2 had both together. If you sum March+April for Sony and MS with their launch versus Switch launch+1st holiday it is clear that it benefited Switch.

Eh, Switch sells better than the PS4 in general. It did so in year 1, year 2, year 3 and will do so again in the current year 4, so assigning the year 1 win to a non-holiday launch is a bit reaching.

If a non-holiday launch would be inherently beneficial, then both Sony and Microsoft would have targeted that with their upcoming consoles, but there has never been any word (be it official or rumored) that a non-holiday launch was ever in consideration by either one of them.

Yes launch aligned Switch have sold more than PS4, but not in any way similar to the difference of switch launch window+holidays versus PS4 launch + first march and april. And again if there was more inventory PS4 and Switch would have sold more on launch, showing that for launch it being on holiday doesn't necessarily improve sales that much.

It is beneficial to launch as early as possible, if holiday would be so much better then why didn't Nintendo wait for Holiday in 2017 to launch? Sony had released outside of holiday in the past. And you can bet that if Nintendo could have launched on Holiday 2016 they would have, but that is because they would like to launch earlier than later.

UnderwaterFunktown said:
Like you said yourself even the Xbone despite the controversy that haunted it at the time sold more than the Switch in its first two months, so its very hard to imagine a scenario where both of the new consoles don't do the same.

If you want specific predictions I'll say:
PS5 - 5,6 mil (assuming it launches in Japan right away unlike the PS4)
Series X - 3,7 mil

If inventory is there both can possibly outsell it.



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Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Well, the PS5 should take this. Switch is no competition, if you look at the PS4-Switch launch aligned comparison, it is easy to see how the PS4 can pull ahead with a holiday launch. Switch comes back as it itself enters holiday and they started dancing around each other at their respective holidays until recently. So the holiday-launch of PS5 will surely push it past Switch. The XBSX will probably also be ahead of Switch, because of the holidays, but lag behind PS5 because of Japan.



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DonFerrari said:
RolStoppable said:

Eh, Switch sells better than the PS4 in general. It did so in year 1, year 2, year 3 and will do so again in the current year 4, so assigning the year 1 win to a non-holiday launch is a bit reaching.

If a non-holiday launch would be inherently beneficial, then both Sony and Microsoft would have targeted that with their upcoming consoles, but there has never been any word (be it official or rumored) that a non-holiday launch was ever in consideration by either one of them.

Yes launch aligned Switch have sold more than PS4, but not in any way similar to the difference of switch launch window+holidays versus PS4 launch + first march and april. And again if there was more inventory PS4 and Switch would have sold more on launch, showing that for launch it being on holiday doesn't necessarily improve sales that much.

It is beneficial to launch as early as possible, if holiday would be so much better then why didn't Nintendo wait for Holiday in 2017 to launch? Sony had released outside of holiday in the past. And you can bet that if Nintendo could have launched on Holiday 2016 they would have, but that is because they would like to launch earlier than later.

The problem with this March+April+November+December comparison is that for Switch it's a combination of months that required Nintendo to release big system sellers whereas for Sony March+April had little relevance.

Switch was planned to launch during the holiday season 2016, but it wouldn't make sense to delay the launch by a full year when you can't make that date. The benefit of a holiday launch is mitigation of risk; companies can count on a strong second month in addition to a good first month and that's crucial for building the initial installed base to increase third party developer interest and confidence. But this benefit would not have justified it for Nintendo to sit on finished games until the holiday season 2017; they have fixed expenses to cover, so Switch's launch got postponed by only three months. But I suppose you believed that March 2017 was Nintendo's original target when you made your argument; it wasn't.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

DonFerrari said:
Imaginedvl said:

I have a hard time believing they will achieve that honestly.
Both have a so so lunch line up and while they have clearly a big upgrade from the current generation, they are still that, an upgrade until new games are coming out (Halo, Flight Simulator for Microsoft) and (Horizon Dawn, GT for Sony) that will really use the machine's internals.

The Switch cames up with Zelda (and few others) which, by itself, sold the console :)

Would say:

Sony: 2.5M
Microsoft: 1.5M

Why do you think PS5 and Series will do like half of what their predecessors made on launch? PS4 and X1 also didn't had killer apps.

The price, simple as that.

I think right now, with the Corona Virus and all that. People are not going to be able to spend as much (at least part of the target population).
Maybe they will surprise us with the price and then I will def. adjust this way up. 



Signalstar said:
Imaginedvl said:

I have a hard time believing they will achieve that honestly.
Both have a so so lunch line up and while they have clearly a big upgrade from the current generation, they are still that, an upgrade until new games are coming out (Halo, Flight Simulator for Microsoft) and (Horizon Dawn, GT for Sony) that will really use the machine's internals.

The Switch cames up with Zelda (and few others) which, by itself, sold the console :)

Would say:

Sony: 2.5M
Microsoft: 1.5M

The Switch launched with 5 games. Even if one of those games was Zelda (itself not an exclusive) 5 games is still a weak launch lineup.

It is a huge stretch to say that the PS5 or Xbox Series X have weaker launch lineups when they presumably will have more than 5 games. Including big third party games like Watch Dogs and Assassins Creed that may never come to Switch.

I do not agree with the "weak launch lineup" for the Switch.
Zelda WAS a console seller and I could not say the same about any game coming out for the 2 next gens.

The games you are mentioning are ALL available on current gens. This is a very different story.

While I am actually looking forward to play those games on my Series X, I do not need it and nobody will need to buy a next gen console to play them. Zelda, was a Switch game, for the Switch. And it moved a LOT of console :)



In the first two months it will be depending more from supply than from demand.

All three companies should have a few million hardcore fans / eary adopters.



Imaginedvl said:
Signalstar said:

The Switch launched with 5 games. Even if one of those games was Zelda (itself not an exclusive) 5 games is still a weak launch lineup.

It is a huge stretch to say that the PS5 or Xbox Series X have weaker launch lineups when they presumably will have more than 5 games. Including big third party games like Watch Dogs and Assassins Creed that may never come to Switch.

I do not agree with the "weak launch lineup" for the Switch.
Zelda WAS a console seller and I could not say the same about any game coming out for the 2 next gens.

The games you are mentioning are ALL available on current gens. This is a very different story.

While I am actually looking forward to play those games on my Series X, I do not need it and nobody will need to buy a next gen console to play them. Zelda, was a Switch game, for the Switch. And it moved a LOT of console :)

But... Zelda was a Wii U game too. No one needed to buy a Switch to play it either.



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