This is unfair and difficult to compare. Spring is a much more dead part of the year than the holidays, so advantage HD twins in that regard. Also, we know Nintendo had supply shortages for a looooong time after launch, so unless Xbox/PS5 have similar constraints that is another reason this is difficult to compare.
If all three devices releases in the same month and all had 5 million units on shelves during that time, then we could compare sales fairly. But what if Nintendo didn't have supply constraints? Would they have sold 4, 5, 6, etc. million then? Who knows?
You can't have it twice, claim Spring is much more dead and supply constraints. Because we know that if it was on Holidays it wouldn't sell a single console more because it was already supply constrained. So the real limitator was constraints, and that is on Nintendo plan. So I don't see any unfairness on it. And I just made the thread because Nintendo fans were complaining that Switch should be included on the discussion of who would have the biggest launch window this holiday.
Your what if scenario is kinda pointless, PS4 was also supply constrained and the discussion would be just on opinion or speculation on their sales curve and PS4 and Switch have been fairly similar.
Sure thing, they were already questioning the previous 48 months.... and they could have released in 2016 as well but weren't able. Still that matches what I said prior that they try to release as early as possible instead of waiting for Xmas. If you can plan to have your swap on Holidays for safety on demand sure bonus points, but we have seem both PS4 and Switch sold out for 2 months on launch inside and outside holidays. So it more show that launch depends much more on inventory availability than Holidays.
Yes, I'm sure if they could have had 2 million Switches (the number they anticipated having shipped by end of launch month) ready by holiday 2016, they would have released then. But that was obviously not the case. The system was still going by its codename "NX" up until October 20, 2016. They released it as soon as it was feasible to do so. Also, remember the launch window software was also sparse for March 2017 as it was. Launching 4 months earlier, had it been possible from a hardware perspective, would likely have adversely affected the software pacing of 1 big title releasing just about every month: Breath of the Wild (March 2017), Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (April 2017), Arms (June 2017), Splatoon 2 (July 2017), Fire Emblem Warriors (September 2017), Super Mario Odyssey (October 2017), Xenoblade Chronicles 2 (December 2017).
Totally agree with you. But just for exercise pick the Switch launch+holiday versus PS4 launch+march and april and will be quite evident that PS4 didn't really benefit from holiday, it was supply constrained and would likely have sold the same number if was released outside of holiday, same for switch (due to lack of inventory) it could have sold even more on launch if more inventory was available and wouldn't sell more on holiday if the inventory was the same of the original launch.