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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will PS5 and Series X have a bigger opening than Switch?

 

Wich will have the biggest launch window (2 months)?

Switch (March-May 2017) 12 21.82%
 
Xbox Series (November-Dec... 2 3.64%
 
Playstation 5 (No release date yet, 2020) 41 74.55%
 
Total:55
ArchangelMadzz said:
Ryng said:

You think is tough for Sony shipping less than 4 million PS5 this year?

Considering its going to be out for like 8 weeks I don't know about supply constraints. PS4 sold 4.2 million from launch to end of year. 

They're making less PS5's for launch last I heard and its going to definitely cost more. So we'll see. 

Latest rumor have that Sony upped orders from 5M to 10M for holidays (could be until March 2021 though).

Mandalore76 said:
DonFerrari said:

Yes launch aligned Switch have sold more than PS4, but not in any way similar to the difference of switch launch window+holidays versus PS4 launch + first march and april. And again if there was more inventory PS4 and Switch would have sold more on launch, showing that for launch it being on holiday doesn't necessarily improve sales that much.

It is beneficial to launch as early as possible, if holiday would be so much better then why didn't Nintendo wait for Holiday in 2017 to launch? Sony had released outside of holiday in the past. And you can bet that if Nintendo could have launched on Holiday 2016 they would have, but that is because they would like to launch earlier than later.

If inventory is there both can possibly outsell it.

Because the Wii U was discontinued in January 2017.  Nintendo wasn't going to go 10 months without a home console in the retail space.  Nintendo was getting such bad press at the time, "Nintendo should go 3rd Party", that they had to launch a new console ASAP.  And that's what they did.

If they really thought that Switch would do so much better if they waited for holiday them they wouldn't discontinue WiiU in January. They launching in March paid off.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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DonFerrari said:
ArchangelMadzz said:

Considering its going to be out for like 8 weeks I don't know about supply constraints. PS4 sold 4.2 million from launch to end of year. 

They're making less PS5's for launch last I heard and its going to definitely cost more. So we'll see. 

Latest rumor have that Sony upped orders from 5M to 10M for holidays (could be until March 2021 though).

Mandalore76 said:

Because the Wii U was discontinued in January 2017.  Nintendo wasn't going to go 10 months without a home console in the retail space.  Nintendo was getting such bad press at the time, "Nintendo should go 3rd Party", that they had to launch a new console ASAP.  And that's what they did.

If they really thought that Switch would do so much better if they waited for holiday them they wouldn't discontinue WiiU in January. They launching in March paid off.

Here's the Wii U weekly sales from it's last holiday period (2016) into it's worldwide discontinuation on January 31st 2017.  Tell me that Nintendo should have rode this out for 10 more months:

Week Ending 11/26/2016 (Black Friday)

WiiU 41,938 (+128%) 13,318,699

Week Ending 12/3/2016

WiiU 22,559 (-46%) 13,341,258

Week Ending 12/10/2016

WiiU 24,020 (+6%) 13,365,278

Week Ending 12/17/2016

WiiU 26,954 (+12%) 13,392,232

Week Ending 12/24/2016 (week before Christmas)

WiiU 29,153 (+8%) 13,421,385

Week Ending 12/31/2016

WiiU 13,503 (-54%) 13,434,888

Week Ending 1/7/2017

WiiU 9,131 (-32%) 13,444,019

Week Ending 1/14/2017

WiiU 5,545 (-39%) 13,449,564

Week Ending 1/21/2017

WiiU 4,673 (-16%) 13,454,237

Week Ending 1/28/2017

WiiU 4,497 (-4%) 13,458,734

When investors would have been questioning, what are you going to do about your home console selling 4,000 units per week?  I don't think "We're waiting for Christmas 10 months from now" would be considered a valid answer.



Mandalore76 said:
DonFerrari said:

Latest rumor have that Sony upped orders from 5M to 10M for holidays (could be until March 2021 though).

If they really thought that Switch would do so much better if they waited for holiday them they wouldn't discontinue WiiU in January. They launching in March paid off.

Here's the Wii U weekly sales from it's last holiday period (2016) into it's worldwide discontinuation on January 31st 2017.  Tell me that Nintendo should have rode this out for 10 more months:

Week Ending 11/26/2016 (Black Friday)

WiiU 41,938 (+128%) 13,318,699

Week Ending 12/3/2016

WiiU 22,559 (-46%) 13,341,258

Week Ending 12/10/2016

WiiU 24,020 (+6%) 13,365,278

Week Ending 12/17/2016

WiiU 26,954 (+12%) 13,392,232

Week Ending 12/24/2016 (week before Christmas)

WiiU 29,153 (+8%) 13,421,385

Week Ending 12/31/2016

WiiU 13,503 (-54%) 13,434,888

Week Ending 1/7/2017

WiiU 9,131 (-32%) 13,444,019

Week Ending 1/14/2017

WiiU 5,545 (-39%) 13,449,564

Week Ending 1/21/2017

WiiU 4,673 (-16%) 13,454,237

Week Ending 1/28/2017

WiiU 4,497 (-4%) 13,458,734

When investors would have been questioning, what are you going to do about your home console selling 4,000 units per week?  I don't think "We're waiting for Christmas 10 months from now" would be considered a valid answer.

Sure thing, they were already questioning the previous 48 months.... and they could have released in 2016 as well but weren't able. Still that matches what I said prior that they try to release as early as possible instead of waiting for Xmas. If you can plan to have your swap on Holidays for safety on demand sure bonus points, but we have seem both PS4 and Switch sold out for 2 months on launch inside and outside holidays. So it more show that launch depends much more on inventory availability than Holidays.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

This is unfair and difficult to compare. Spring is a much more dead part of the year than the holidays, so advantage HD twins in that regard. Also, we know Nintendo had supply shortages for a looooong time after launch, so unless Xbox/PS5 have similar constraints that is another reason this is difficult to compare.

If all three devices releases in the same month and all had 5 million units on shelves during that time, then we could compare sales fairly. But what if Nintendo didn't have supply constraints? Would they have sold 4, 5, 6, etc. million then? Who knows?



Dulfite said:
This is unfair and difficult to compare. Spring is a much more dead part of the year than the holidays, so advantage HD twins in that regard. Also, we know Nintendo had supply shortages for a looooong time after launch, so unless Xbox/PS5 have similar constraints that is another reason this is difficult to compare.

If all three devices releases in the same month and all had 5 million units on shelves during that time, then we could compare sales fairly. But what if Nintendo didn't have supply constraints? Would they have sold 4, 5, 6, etc. million then? Who knows?

Didn't realised we still used HD twins since Nintendo is HD as has been for 8 years aha.

PS4 Was supply constrained for up to a year, when I bought one in July the year after launch there was only 1 type of edition available. So chances are at least the PS5 will be constrained too.

But if not, why should Sony be punished in the sales comparison for being better prepared?



PS4(PS5 Soon)and PC gaming

There's only 2 races: White and 'Political Agenda'
2 Genders: Male and 'Political Agenda'
2 Hairstyles for female characters: Long and 'Political Agenda'
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DonFerrari said:
Mandalore76 said:

Here's the Wii U weekly sales from it's last holiday period (2016) into it's worldwide discontinuation on January 31st 2017.  Tell me that Nintendo should have rode this out for 10 more months:

Week Ending 11/26/2016 (Black Friday)

WiiU 41,938 (+128%) 13,318,699

Week Ending 12/3/2016

WiiU 22,559 (-46%) 13,341,258

Week Ending 12/10/2016

WiiU 24,020 (+6%) 13,365,278

Week Ending 12/17/2016

WiiU 26,954 (+12%) 13,392,232

Week Ending 12/24/2016 (week before Christmas)

WiiU 29,153 (+8%) 13,421,385

Week Ending 12/31/2016

WiiU 13,503 (-54%) 13,434,888

Week Ending 1/7/2017

WiiU 9,131 (-32%) 13,444,019

Week Ending 1/14/2017

WiiU 5,545 (-39%) 13,449,564

Week Ending 1/21/2017

WiiU 4,673 (-16%) 13,454,237

Week Ending 1/28/2017

WiiU 4,497 (-4%) 13,458,734

When investors would have been questioning, what are you going to do about your home console selling 4,000 units per week?  I don't think "We're waiting for Christmas 10 months from now" would be considered a valid answer.

Sure thing, they were already questioning the previous 48 months.... and they could have released in 2016 as well but weren't able. Still that matches what I said prior that they try to release as early as possible instead of waiting for Xmas. If you can plan to have your swap on Holidays for safety on demand sure bonus points, but we have seem both PS4 and Switch sold out for 2 months on launch inside and outside holidays. So it more show that launch depends much more on inventory availability than Holidays.

Yes, I'm sure if they could have had 2 million Switches (the number they anticipated having shipped by end of launch month) ready by holiday 2016, they would have released then.  But that was obviously not the case.  The system was still going by its codename "NX" up until October 20, 2016.  They released it as soon as it was feasible to do so.  Also, remember the launch window software was also sparse for March 2017 as it was.  Launching 4 months earlier, had it been possible from a hardware perspective, would likely have adversely affected the software pacing of 1 big title releasing just about every month:  Breath of the Wild (March 2017), Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (April 2017), Arms (June 2017), Splatoon 2 (July 2017), Fire Emblem Warriors (September 2017), Super Mario Odyssey (October 2017), Xenoblade Chronicles 2 (December 2017).



ArchangelMadzz said:
Dulfite said:
This is unfair and difficult to compare. Spring is a much more dead part of the year than the holidays, so advantage HD twins in that regard. Also, we know Nintendo had supply shortages for a looooong time after launch, so unless Xbox/PS5 have similar constraints that is another reason this is difficult to compare.

If all three devices releases in the same month and all had 5 million units on shelves during that time, then we could compare sales fairly. But what if Nintendo didn't have supply constraints? Would they have sold 4, 5, 6, etc. million then? Who knows?

Didn't realised we still used HD twins since Nintendo is HD as has been for 8 years aha.

PS4 Was supply constrained for up to a year, when I bought one in July the year after launch there was only 1 type of edition available. So chances are at least the PS5 will be constrained too.

But if not, why should Sony be punished in the sales comparison for being better prepared?

Fine, what should we call them then? 4k twins? Then next gen 8k? Or HDR twins? Lol

Yeah but we need more specifics. How much supply constraints? If their constraint meant they could have moved three million more units, and Nintendo only 1 million more if they weren't constrained, then we'd have hard numbers. This is all just a guessing game.

And I'd argue Nintendo isn't not prepared. They have designed their games to be evergreen titles, why should they treat their console any differently? They are less concerned with initial sales than they are the long game. I'm one of the people that believes Nintendo, and maybe others but especially them, intentionally supply constraints themselves in order to increase demand so much that people that wouldn't have purchased their device at all suddenly buy it. You create demand from people that wouldn't have had it by manufacturing shortages. 



Dulfite said:
ArchangelMadzz said:

Didn't realised we still used HD twins since Nintendo is HD as has been for 8 years aha.

PS4 Was supply constrained for up to a year, when I bought one in July the year after launch there was only 1 type of edition available. So chances are at least the PS5 will be constrained too.

But if not, why should Sony be punished in the sales comparison for being better prepared?

Fine, what should we call them then? 4k twins? Then next gen 8k? Or HDR twins? Lol

Yeah but we need more specifics. How much supply constraints? If their constraint meant they could have moved three million more units, and Nintendo only 1 million more if they weren't constrained, then we'd have hard numbers. This is all just a guessing game.

And I'd argue Nintendo isn't not prepared. They have designed their games to be evergreen titles, why should they treat their console any differently? They are less concerned with initial sales than they are the long game. I'm one of the people that believes Nintendo, and maybe others but especially them, intentionally supply constraints themselves in order to increase demand so much that people that wouldn't have purchased their device at all suddenly buy it. You create demand from people that wouldn't have had it by manufacturing shortages. 

I don't see the problem with comparing the sales still, if they're intentionally supply constraining then again, that's down to them and their strategy. We've never tried to differentiate that before. Most launch consoles have supply issues, artificial or not. 



PS4(PS5 Soon)and PC gaming

There's only 2 races: White and 'Political Agenda'
2 Genders: Male and 'Political Agenda'
2 Hairstyles for female characters: Long and 'Political Agenda'
2 Sexualities: Straight and 'Political Agenda'

Dulfite said:
This is unfair and difficult to compare. Spring is a much more dead part of the year than the holidays, so advantage HD twins in that regard. Also, we know Nintendo had supply shortages for a looooong time after launch, so unless Xbox/PS5 have similar constraints that is another reason this is difficult to compare.

If all three devices releases in the same month and all had 5 million units on shelves during that time, then we could compare sales fairly. But what if Nintendo didn't have supply constraints? Would they have sold 4, 5, 6, etc. million then? Who knows?

You can't have it twice, claim Spring is much more dead and supply constraints. Because we know that if it was on Holidays it wouldn't sell a single console more because it was already supply constrained. So the real limitator was constraints, and that is on Nintendo plan. So I don't see any unfairness on it. And I just made the thread because Nintendo fans were complaining that Switch should be included on the discussion of who would have the biggest launch window this holiday.

Your what if scenario is kinda pointless, PS4 was also supply constrained and the discussion would be just on opinion or speculation on their sales curve and PS4 and Switch have been fairly similar.

Mandalore76 said:
DonFerrari said:

Sure thing, they were already questioning the previous 48 months.... and they could have released in 2016 as well but weren't able. Still that matches what I said prior that they try to release as early as possible instead of waiting for Xmas. If you can plan to have your swap on Holidays for safety on demand sure bonus points, but we have seem both PS4 and Switch sold out for 2 months on launch inside and outside holidays. So it more show that launch depends much more on inventory availability than Holidays.

Yes, I'm sure if they could have had 2 million Switches (the number they anticipated having shipped by end of launch month) ready by holiday 2016, they would have released then.  But that was obviously not the case.  The system was still going by its codename "NX" up until October 20, 2016.  They released it as soon as it was feasible to do so.  Also, remember the launch window software was also sparse for March 2017 as it was.  Launching 4 months earlier, had it been possible from a hardware perspective, would likely have adversely affected the software pacing of 1 big title releasing just about every month:  Breath of the Wild (March 2017), Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (April 2017), Arms (June 2017), Splatoon 2 (July 2017), Fire Emblem Warriors (September 2017), Super Mario Odyssey (October 2017), Xenoblade Chronicles 2 (December 2017).

Totally agree with you. But just for exercise pick the Switch launch+holiday versus PS4 launch+march and april and will be quite evident that PS4 didn't really benefit from holiday, it was supply constrained and would likely have sold the same number if was released outside of holiday, same for switch (due to lack of inventory) it could have sold even more on launch if more inventory was available and wouldn't sell more on holiday if the inventory was the same of the original launch.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Dulfite said:
ArchangelMadzz said:

Didn't realised we still used HD twins since Nintendo is HD as has been for 8 years aha.

PS4 Was supply constrained for up to a year, when I bought one in July the year after launch there was only 1 type of edition available. So chances are at least the PS5 will be constrained too.

But if not, why should Sony be punished in the sales comparison for being better prepared?

Fine, what should we call them then? 4k twins? Then next gen 8k? Or HDR twins? Lol

Yeah but we need more specifics. How much supply constraints? If their constraint meant they could have moved three million more units, and Nintendo only 1 million more if they weren't constrained, then we'd have hard numbers. This is all just a guessing game.

And I'd argue Nintendo isn't not prepared. They have designed their games to be evergreen titles, why should they treat their console any differently? They are less concerned with initial sales than they are the long game. I'm one of the people that believes Nintendo, and maybe others but especially them, intentionally supply constraints themselves in order to increase demand so much that people that wouldn't have purchased their device at all suddenly buy it. You create demand from people that wouldn't have had it by manufacturing shortages. 

If that's the case, and it's that easy to build up artificial demand, why didn't they supply constrain the Wii U after the initial allotment sold out?  Why didn't they supply constrain the Gamecube for that matter?  On the contrary, Nintendo actually delayed the original release date of the Gamecube in North America by 2 weeks so that they would have more units available at launch, not less.  The Wii and the Switch both suffered stock issues because the excitement and demand for the product was there from the get go.  The demand created the stock shortages, not vice versa.  The Wii sold 600,000 consoles in it's first 8 days on the market in the Americas.  It sold 372,000 consoles in Japan in 2 days.  It also sold 325,000 consoles in Europe in 2 days as well.  In the first half of 2007, the Wii sold more consoles than both the XBox 360 and PS3 combined.  And as far as the Switch goes, Nintendo debunked that theory by spending more to expensively air ship new units as they were selling out in the launch period rather than proceed with the cheaper and longer mode of transportation by sea.  That's demand creating stock shortages.  Not the other way around.