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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will PS5 and Series X have a bigger opening than Switch?

 

Wich will have the biggest launch window (2 months)?

Switch (March-May 2017) 12 21.82%
 
Xbox Series (November-Dec... 2 3.64%
 
Playstation 5 (No release date yet, 2020) 41 74.55%
 
Total:55
Alby_da_Wolf on 21 August 2020
Mandalore76 said:
Dulfite said:

Fine, what should we call them then? 4k twins? Then next gen 8k? Or HDR twins? Lol

Yeah but we need more specifics. How much supply constraints? If their constraint meant they could have moved three million more units, and Nintendo only 1 million more if they weren't constrained, then we'd have hard numbers. This is all just a guessing game.

And I'd argue Nintendo isn't not prepared. They have designed their games to be evergreen titles, why should they treat their console any differently? They are less concerned with initial sales than they are the long game. I'm one of the people that believes Nintendo, and maybe others but especially them, intentionally supply constraints themselves in order to increase demand so much that people that wouldn't have purchased their device at all suddenly buy it. You create demand from people that wouldn't have had it by manufacturing shortages. 

If that's the case, and it's that easy to build up artificial demand, why didn't they supply constrain the Wii U after the initial allotment sold out?  Why didn't they supply constrain the Gamecube for that matter?  On the contrary, Nintendo actually delayed the original release date of the Gamecube in North America by 2 weeks so that they would have more units available at launch, not less.  The Wii and the Switch both suffered stock issues because the excitement and demand for the product was there from the get go.  The demand created the stock shortages, not vice versa.  The Wii sold 600,000 consoles in it's first 8 days on the market in the Americas.  It sold 372,000 consoles in Japan in 2 days.  It also sold 325,000 consoles in Europe in 2 days as well.  In the first half of 2007, the Wii sold more consoles than both the XBox 360 and PS3 combined.  And as far as the Switch goes, Nintendo debunked that theory by spending more to expensively air ship new units as they were selling out in the launch period rather than proceed with the cheaper and longer mode of transportation by sea.  That's demand creating stock shortages.  Not the other way around.

Ninty simply increases productive capacity not following what are likely spikes in demand, but trying to predict the average demand for a longer period.
Every company does it, maybe it just happened that Ninty made more prudent predictions even when it was selling its most successful consoles.
True supply constraints happened in the past, but towards other companies: during the early console generations, it supply constrained cartridges for third party developers and publishers, actively preventing even the most successful 3rd party games from reaching the sales numbers of the top Ninty ones. Nowadays it would be harshly punished by current antitrust and consumer protection laws, but Ninty was forced to stop doing it earlier than stricter laws arrived, as soon as optical discs became successful on consoles, making third parties more willing to abandon the safe, but absolutist and limiting Ninty exclusive.



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thismeintiel on 21 August 2020
RolStoppable said:

Are we talking about two or three months now? Thread title, poll and original post are all over the place.

I'll answer for the two-month-period. The PS5 is bound to be the highest because it's a holiday launch and has global appeal, unlike the upcoming Xbox. Second place goes to Xbox because of a holiday launch. That leaves Switch in third.

Hopefully this finally buries the misbelief that a holiday launch means a wasted holiday season. A holiday launch means that month 1 and 2 are equally good whereas launching outside the holiday season results in a significant dropoff from month 1 to month 2.

EDIT: Switch managed 3.06m in its first two months, so yes, there's little doubt that the new Xbox is going to beat that, and the PS5 will beat the box.

Maybe not completely wasted, but it definitely shouldn't count as a normal holiday. At launch, if your product is popular, it'll sell whatever stock is available. The XBO beat PS4 in Dec '13 because Sony didn't have the stock available to keep up with demand. Likewise, the Switch could have done better if Nintendo had more stock available in April.



 

Shiken on 21 August 2020

I highly doubt it. Switch had a huge system seller backing it. PS5 and now MS will not, and be hella expensive.



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DonFerrari on 21 August 2020
Shiken said:
I highly doubt it. Switch had a huge system seller backing it. PS5 and now MS will not, and be hella expensive.

Switch was highly supply constrained (probably a double from not being able to produce more due to shortage of parts and also not expecting to sell much more due to March launch). PS4 and even X1 done better than Switch launch 2 months time. So it is quite possible that PS5 and Series X if the inventory is there can outsell it.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Shiken on 21 August 2020
DonFerrari said:
Shiken said:
I highly doubt it. Switch had a huge system seller backing it. PS5 and now MS will not, and be hella expensive.

Switch was highly supply constrained (probably a double from not being able to produce more due to shortage of parts and also not expecting to sell much more due to March launch). PS4 and even X1 done better than Switch launch 2 months time. So it is quite possible that PS5 and Series X if the inventory is there can outsell it.

Even more possible that inventory won't be there.



Nintendo Switch Friend Code: SW-5643-2927-1984

Animal Crossing NH Dream Address: DA-1078-9916-3261

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DonFerrari on 21 August 2020
Shiken said:
DonFerrari said:

Switch was highly supply constrained (probably a double from not being able to produce more due to shortage of parts and also not expecting to sell much more due to March launch). PS4 and even X1 done better than Switch launch 2 months time. So it is quite possible that PS5 and Series X if the inventory is there can outsell it.

Even more possible that inventory won't be there.

If that rumor is to be believed (it was from business publication so it probably have some truth on it) sony upped their order from 5 to 10M units, just unsure if for launch or until March.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Shiken on 21 August 2020
DonFerrari said:
Shiken said:

Even more possible that inventory won't be there.

If that rumor is to be believed (it was from business publication so it probably have some truth on it) sony upped their order from 5 to 10M units, just unsure if for launch or until March.

I am taking a "believe it when I see it" mindset due to everything going on right now.  Just because the order is in does not mean they will be able to have enough ready by launch.



Nintendo Switch Friend Code: SW-5643-2927-1984

Animal Crossing NH Dream Address: DA-1078-9916-3261

DonFerrari on 21 August 2020
Shiken said:
DonFerrari said:

If that rumor is to be believed (it was from business publication so it probably have some truth on it) sony upped their order from 5 to 10M units, just unsure if for launch or until March.

I am taking a "believe it when I see it" mindset due to everything going on right now.  Just because the order is in does not mean they will be able to have enough ready by launch.

Well that is very fine attitude imho. We are just speculating at this point and you certainly can think due to all the challenges of covid they either won't have plenty of inventory to sell or that people will be holding on their spending.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

VAMatt on 21 August 2020

Launching during the holiday period means that PS5 and XSX have a big advantage over Switch. I expect the PS5 to do better than XSX, so I voted for PS5 in the poll. I think Sony would be pretty disappointed if they can't exceed 3.2mm units this holiday.



Intrinsic on 21 August 2020

I find all this talk about supply constraints silly.

That's like making an argument saying "if only console XYZ was priced at $150 it would have sold x million more units".

At the end of the day, consoles ship what they ship and they will sell what they sell. Its why I always say that looking at launch windows isn't necessarily indicative of how a platform will perform. Just look at the current-gen. Under2 months after launch the PS4 had sold around 4.1M units and the XB1 had sold around 3.9M. Would anyone have thought then that 7 years later the PS4 would have an almost 3:1 lead over the XB1?

Or look at the PS5. At a $399 - $499 price point, there are at least 10M people around the world that will be ready/willing to pick one up if sony can ship 10M units on launch day. Doesn't mean that after those initial sales it would also end up selling 120M after 7 years.