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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will PS5 and Series X have a bigger opening than Switch?

 

Wich will have the biggest launch window (2 months)?

Switch (March-May 2017) 12 21.82%
 
Xbox Series (November-Dec... 2 3.64%
 
Playstation 5 (No release date yet, 2020) 41 74.55%
 
Total:55
Imaginedvl said:

I have a hard time believing they will achieve that honestly.
Both have a so so lunch line up and while they have clearly a big upgrade from the current generation, they are still that, an upgrade until new games are coming out (Halo, Flight Simulator for Microsoft) and (Horizon Dawn, GT for Sony) that will really use the machine's internals.

The Switch cames up with Zelda (and few others) which, by itself, sold the console :)

Would say:

Sony: 2.5M
Microsoft: 1.5M

PS5 does not have a so so launch line up. It has Spiderman, the best selling PS4 exclusive ever. The social media metrics off PS5 suggest a record breaking launch.

Sony have supposeldy placed 10 million units for shipment till March, which would make PS5 the best console launch ever.



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DonFerrari said:
Mandalore76 said:

Yes, I'm sure if they could have had 2 million Switches (the number they anticipated having shipped by end of launch month) ready by holiday 2016, they would have released then.  But that was obviously not the case.  The system was still going by its codename "NX" up until October 20, 2016.  They released it as soon as it was feasible to do so.  Also, remember the launch window software was also sparse for March 2017 as it was.  Launching 4 months earlier, had it been possible from a hardware perspective, would likely have adversely affected the software pacing of 1 big title releasing just about every month:  Breath of the Wild (March 2017), Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (April 2017), Arms (June 2017), Splatoon 2 (July 2017), Fire Emblem Warriors (September 2017), Super Mario Odyssey (October 2017), Xenoblade Chronicles 2 (December 2017).

Totally agree with you. But just for exercise pick the Switch launch+holiday versus PS4 launch+march and april and will be quite evident that PS4 didn't really benefit from holiday, it was supply constrained and would likely have sold the same number if was released outside of holiday, same for switch (due to lack of inventory) it could have sold even more on launch if more inventory was available and wouldn't sell more on holiday if the inventory was the same of the original launch.

Well, there were people on this site that claimed that Nintendo consoles are "only bought as Christmas presents for children".  If that was the case, a March release would have been a handicap, since not many people buy their high ticket holiday items 10 months in advance.  (I don't believe this at all mind you, and I have countered it whenever I have seen it mentioned)



Mandalore76 said:
DonFerrari said:

Totally agree with you. But just for exercise pick the Switch launch+holiday versus PS4 launch+march and april and will be quite evident that PS4 didn't really benefit from holiday, it was supply constrained and would likely have sold the same number if was released outside of holiday, same for switch (due to lack of inventory) it could have sold even more on launch if more inventory was available and wouldn't sell more on holiday if the inventory was the same of the original launch.

Well, there were people on this site that claimed that Nintendo consoles are "only bought as Christmas presents for children".  If that was the case, a March release would have been a handicap, since not many people buy their high ticket holiday items 10 months in advance.  (I don't believe this at all mind you, and I have countered it whenever I have seen it mentioned)

We can't deny that Nintendo seems to have the biggest boost for Xmas and is more child friendly so good gift for Xmas, but yep Switch is doing great all around the year for anyone to make the claim that it is only sold in Holidays.

About the post of artificial constraints, I totally agree with you, it wasn't in purpose, It was just that Nintendo didn't correct project the sales (after all they were quite massive and unexpected by almost everyone).



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Mandalore76 said:
Dulfite said:

Fine, what should we call them then? 4k twins? Then next gen 8k? Or HDR twins? Lol

Yeah but we need more specifics. How much supply constraints? If their constraint meant they could have moved three million more units, and Nintendo only 1 million more if they weren't constrained, then we'd have hard numbers. This is all just a guessing game.

And I'd argue Nintendo isn't not prepared. They have designed their games to be evergreen titles, why should they treat their console any differently? They are less concerned with initial sales than they are the long game. I'm one of the people that believes Nintendo, and maybe others but especially them, intentionally supply constraints themselves in order to increase demand so much that people that wouldn't have purchased their device at all suddenly buy it. You create demand from people that wouldn't have had it by manufacturing shortages. 

If that's the case, and it's that easy to build up artificial demand, why didn't they supply constrain the Wii U after the initial allotment sold out?  Why didn't they supply constrain the Gamecube for that matter?  On the contrary, Nintendo actually delayed the original release date of the Gamecube in North America by 2 weeks so that they would have more units available at launch, not less.  The Wii and the Switch both suffered stock issues because the excitement and demand for the product was there from the get go.  The demand created the stock shortages, not vice versa.  The Wii sold 600,000 consoles in it's first 8 days on the market in the Americas.  It sold 372,000 consoles in Japan in 2 days.  It also sold 325,000 consoles in Europe in 2 days as well.  In the first half of 2007, the Wii sold more consoles than both the XBox 360 and PS3 combined.  And as far as the Switch goes, Nintendo debunked that theory by spending more to expensively air ship new units as they were selling out in the launch period rather than proceed with the cheaper and longer mode of transportation by sea.  That's demand creating stock shortages.  Not the other way around.

Ninty simply increases productive capacity not following what are likely spikes in demand, but trying to predict the average demand for a longer period.
Every company does it, maybe it just happened that Ninty made more prudent predictions even when it was selling its most successful consoles.
True supply constraints happened in the past, but towards other companies: during the early console generations, it supply constrained cartridges for third party developers and publishers, actively preventing even the most successful 3rd party games from reaching the sales numbers of the top Ninty ones. Nowadays it would be harshly punished by current antitrust and consumer protection laws, but Ninty was forced to stop doing it earlier than stricter laws arrived, as soon as optical discs became successful on consoles, making third parties more willing to abandon the safe, but absolutist and limiting Ninty exclusive.



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RolStoppable said:

Are we talking about two or three months now? Thread title, poll and original post are all over the place.

I'll answer for the two-month-period. The PS5 is bound to be the highest because it's a holiday launch and has global appeal, unlike the upcoming Xbox. Second place goes to Xbox because of a holiday launch. That leaves Switch in third.

Hopefully this finally buries the misbelief that a holiday launch means a wasted holiday season. A holiday launch means that month 1 and 2 are equally good whereas launching outside the holiday season results in a significant dropoff from month 1 to month 2.

EDIT: Switch managed 3.06m in its first two months, so yes, there's little doubt that the new Xbox is going to beat that, and the PS5 will beat the box.

Maybe not completely wasted, but it definitely shouldn't count as a normal holiday. At launch, if your product is popular, it'll sell whatever stock is available. The XBO beat PS4 in Dec '13 because Sony didn't have the stock available to keep up with demand. Likewise, the Switch could have done better if Nintendo had more stock available in April.



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I highly doubt it. Switch had a huge system seller backing it. PS5 and now MS will not, and be hella expensive.



Nintendo Switch Friend Code: SW-5643-2927-1984

Animal Crossing NH Dream Address: DA-1078-9916-3261

Shiken said:
I highly doubt it. Switch had a huge system seller backing it. PS5 and now MS will not, and be hella expensive.

Switch was highly supply constrained (probably a double from not being able to produce more due to shortage of parts and also not expecting to sell much more due to March launch). PS4 and even X1 done better than Switch launch 2 months time. So it is quite possible that PS5 and Series X if the inventory is there can outsell it.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:
Shiken said:
I highly doubt it. Switch had a huge system seller backing it. PS5 and now MS will not, and be hella expensive.

Switch was highly supply constrained (probably a double from not being able to produce more due to shortage of parts and also not expecting to sell much more due to March launch). PS4 and even X1 done better than Switch launch 2 months time. So it is quite possible that PS5 and Series X if the inventory is there can outsell it.

Even more possible that inventory won't be there.



Nintendo Switch Friend Code: SW-5643-2927-1984

Animal Crossing NH Dream Address: DA-1078-9916-3261

Shiken said:
DonFerrari said:

Switch was highly supply constrained (probably a double from not being able to produce more due to shortage of parts and also not expecting to sell much more due to March launch). PS4 and even X1 done better than Switch launch 2 months time. So it is quite possible that PS5 and Series X if the inventory is there can outsell it.

Even more possible that inventory won't be there.

If that rumor is to be believed (it was from business publication so it probably have some truth on it) sony upped their order from 5 to 10M units, just unsure if for launch or until March.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:
Shiken said:

Even more possible that inventory won't be there.

If that rumor is to be believed (it was from business publication so it probably have some truth on it) sony upped their order from 5 to 10M units, just unsure if for launch or until March.

I am taking a "believe it when I see it" mindset due to everything going on right now.  Just because the order is in does not mean they will be able to have enough ready by launch.



Nintendo Switch Friend Code: SW-5643-2927-1984

Animal Crossing NH Dream Address: DA-1078-9916-3261