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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will PS5 and Series X have a bigger opening than Switch?

 

Wich will have the biggest launch window (2 months)?

Switch (March-May 2017) 12 21.82%
 
Xbox Series (November-Dec... 2 3.64%
 
Playstation 5 (No release date yet, 2020) 41 74.55%
 
Total:55
Signalstar said:
Imaginedvl said:

I do not agree with the "weak launch lineup" for the Switch.
Zelda WAS a console seller and I could not say the same about any game coming out for the 2 next gens.

The games you are mentioning are ALL available on current gens. This is a very different story.

While I am actually looking forward to play those games on my Series X, I do not need it and nobody will need to buy a next gen console to play them. Zelda, was a Switch game, for the Switch. And it moved a LOT of console :)

But... Zelda was a Wii U game too. No one needed to buy a Switch to play it either.

Hum... True, I thought the WiiU version did not sell as near as the Switch one (esp. in the first few months and it was pretty abysmal)?
Honestly, that is what I recall at least (Did not check any numbers today) :) So if this was not the case, then yah maybe calling it a console seller may be a stretch but at the same time, it really had a huge impact which none of the launch titles on the 2 next gens will have imo.



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I feel like this is more about inventory than anything else. Will stock be able to keep up with demand in the first 2 months? That seems like the limiting factor for those early sales more than anything else for most recent console launches.



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Are we comparing launch periods (IE. first 2 - 3 months) or just the launch week?

Either way, PS5 is going to crush all sorts of records when it launches, I wouldn't be surprised if Sony moved 3 - 4 Million PS5's on launch week if they had enough supply to meet demand. Series X has a slight chance to outsell the Switch too because its launching during the holidays. 



RolStoppable said:
DonFerrari said:

Yes launch aligned Switch have sold more than PS4, but not in any way similar to the difference of switch launch window+holidays versus PS4 launch + first march and april. And again if there was more inventory PS4 and Switch would have sold more on launch, showing that for launch it being on holiday doesn't necessarily improve sales that much.

It is beneficial to launch as early as possible, if holiday would be so much better then why didn't Nintendo wait for Holiday in 2017 to launch? Sony had released outside of holiday in the past. And you can bet that if Nintendo could have launched on Holiday 2016 they would have, but that is because they would like to launch earlier than later.

The problem with this March+April+November+December comparison is that for Switch it's a combination of months that required Nintendo to release big system sellers whereas for Sony March+April had little relevance.

Switch was planned to launch during the holiday season 2016, but it wouldn't make sense to delay the launch by a full year when you can't make that date. The benefit of a holiday launch is mitigation of risk; companies can count on a strong second month in addition to a good first month and that's crucial for building the initial installed base to increase third party developer interest and confidence. But this benefit would not have justified it for Nintendo to sit on finished games until the holiday season 2017; they have fixed expenses to cover, so Switch's launch got postponed by only three months. But I suppose you believed that March 2017 was Nintendo's original target when you made your argument; it wasn't.

Nope I did believe it was Holiday 2016. But I have had people saying that if Nintendo wanted to release on Holiday they would have more inventory.

But yes I do agree that releasing on Holidays is safer, still for both PS4 and Switch they were very much limited by inventory.

Imaginedvl said:
DonFerrari said:

Why do you think PS5 and Series will do like half of what their predecessors made on launch? PS4 and X1 also didn't had killer apps.

The price, simple as that.

I think right now, with the Corona Virus and all that. People are not going to be able to spend as much (at least part of the target population).
Maybe they will surprise us with the price and then I will def. adjust this way up. 

Both companies seem to be willing to be aggressive on pricing of at least least on their cheaper version.

PotentHerbs said:

Are we comparing launch periods (IE. first 2 - 3 months) or just the launch week?

Either way, PS5 is going to crush all sorts of records when it launches, I wouldn't be surprised if Sony moved 3 - 4 Million PS5's on launch week if they had enough supply to meet demand. Series X has a slight chance to outsell the Switch too because its launching during the holidays. 

Thread is launch window (2 months), but sure you can comment first week if you like.



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Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

For sure they should beat Switch's launch. They are launching during the holiday so that right there gives them a huge advantage, plus Switch was very supply constrained for months after launch. So Nintendo hindered Switch launch sales by not having enough on store sales, and it seems at least Sony is planning on having a massive amount of systems available for launch so they shouldn't have the same problem. It'd actually be an enormous failure for PS5 if they didn't sell more than Switch in their first two months, and it'd be a minor to moderate failure for Xbox if they didn't.



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This question is basically, "how much will each company have ready at launch?"  Consoles always sell almost all of their supply at launch.  Even the Wii U was in short supply right after its launch.  So, I think PS5 will have the most ready of the three choices.

A more interesting question would be which system will sell more at the 12 month mark.  I think Switch will have sold the most in its first 12 months.



They will be more expensive than the Switch, but they are launching during the holiday season. That's a massive advantage. PS5 will sell the most in its first two months. Tough to say if Xbox Series X will sell more than the Switch in its first two months, but I think it can.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 144 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million)

PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

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DonFerrari said:
RolStoppable said:

The problem with this March+April+November+December comparison is that for Switch it's a combination of months that required Nintendo to release big system sellers whereas for Sony March+April had little relevance.

Switch was planned to launch during the holiday season 2016, but it wouldn't make sense to delay the launch by a full year when you can't make that date. The benefit of a holiday launch is mitigation of risk; companies can count on a strong second month in addition to a good first month and that's crucial for building the initial installed base to increase third party developer interest and confidence. But this benefit would not have justified it for Nintendo to sit on finished games until the holiday season 2017; they have fixed expenses to cover, so Switch's launch got postponed by only three months. But I suppose you believed that March 2017 was Nintendo's original target when you made your argument; it wasn't.

Nope I did believe it was Holiday 2016. But I have had people saying that if Nintendo wanted to release on Holiday they would have more inventory.

But yes I do agree that releasing on Holidays is safer, still for both PS4 and Switch they were very much limited by inventory.

Imaginedvl said:

The price, simple as that.

I think right now, with the Corona Virus and all that. People are not going to be able to spend as much (at least part of the target population).
Maybe they will surprise us with the price and then I will def. adjust this way up. 

Both companies seem to be willing to be aggressive on pricing of at least least on their cheaper version.

PotentHerbs said:

Are we comparing launch periods (IE. first 2 - 3 months) or just the launch week?

Either way, PS5 is going to crush all sorts of records when it launches, I wouldn't be surprised if Sony moved 3 - 4 Million PS5's on launch week if they had enough supply to meet demand. Series X has a slight chance to outsell the Switch too because its launching during the holidays. 

Thread is launch window (2 months), but sure you can comment first week if you like.

To add ro Rol’s point, Holidays are not just easier to sell initial numbers, but also to properly stuff the channel in case you need a high production input.

With the amount of money spent during the Holidays by consumers, retailers are more willing to order more because warehouse turnover is faster, delivery companies have more employees to ship everything, etc.

From my professional experience with Best Buy and Gamestop, retailers will order on need basis, even for a hot new product, during the regular sales months, but will take all they can during Holidays and that alone can make the difference.



Not at $500-600



Bite my shiny metal cockpit!

Really? PS5 so obviously will, not sure about the Xbox though.