Seeing how things have been going, with sales no longer match Wii U (2013-2015) figures, if this source is at all reliable, then I do not see a situation where Xbox sells over 10mil next gen. XBSXS was only able to get as far as it has due to a tremendous amount of luck at the start of the gen. If it weren’t for Series S, then the system likely would’ve fallen short of 20mil.

I know this is a long shot, especially when we know literally nothing about next gen hardware nor software strategies, but where do you see Xbox heading?

I want to see how the Xbox Rog Ally does first. I'm guessing not well given the expected price, but we'll see.

Why is not doing the Wii U levels 2013-2015 ? It's exactly at that level. Wii U most months in that time period were between 100 and 180k. Xbox Series just recently dropped from doing 200k+ per month to doing 130-140k. It is still in that 100-180k frame. Wii U even had months in 2013, under 100k, so don't rule the Series out so quick. It's just started doing Wii U levels since May. For next gen Xbox, if there isn't big change the way Microsoft runs their console market, then I see it barely above 20M. Also, big chunk of that Series sales were because of the PS5 shortages first two years, you forgot to mention that, not only the cheaper S option.

It will sell over 10 million. Xbox still receiving third party games and has a good tracking of backwards compatibility. There are more people who are console collectors now and buy every console in the market. This alone will push it past 10 million


How much more than 10 million will depend on the hardware introduction I guess. It can even outsell Series XS. For now I voted 15~19 million

Unless it is not a third party built piece of hardware, then there will not be an Xbox.

So many unknowns. It could outsell Series X/S or sell worse than the original Xbox.
I voted in the 20-29 million units range because unless Microsoft prices people out of it, I think that's a reasonable floor for Xbox hardware.

There's most likely not going to be an actual next gen Xbox, but rather an Xbox-branded gaming PC configuration. That will sell definitely under 10 million units. No exclusive games, no identity, no collectors value.

That’s exactly why I’m thinking it wouldn’t sell all too well. Simply look at portable PCs (e.g. ROG, Steam Deck). And if the system truly does cost double what PS6 is expected to cost (MSRP)? There is no market for such hardware. People looking to play third-party are better off at that point purchasing a PC because I could see major third-party developers flocking away from the system in response to poor hardware sales.

I thought Wii U hovered around 130-180k? Very few months did it drop below this, yet XBSXS has been hovering around the lower end of this spectrum for the past few months. It wouldn’t be keeping pace with Wii U if it were selling like this during 2013-2015, though it wouldn’t be lagging too far behind either…so point taken. As far as XBSXS is concerned? I do anticipate sales will be stronger next year once GTAVI releases, but after that it’s essentially finished. I agree the system still has some legs remaining, albeit very small.

Lastly, “you forgot to mention that.” I didn’t mention anything more than “XBSXS was very lucky at the start of the gen,” which was worded to strongly point toward XBSXS’s present success being a consequence of the PS5 shortage, and the luck of producing a system (Series S) with a chip which wasn’t affected by the chip shortage. And I chose to be intentionally broad because I don’t know the full scope of what happened back then (e.g. I’m pretty sure XBSXS had a very strong year in 2021 as far as software is concerned..I wasn’t paying attention to the games industry at that point in my life).

What even is a next gen Xbox? Will it just be PCs made by other manufacturers? Will we get a dedicated Xbox console? Will my bidet be a next gen Xbox? How can we make predictions if we can't even define what an Xbox is anymore?