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Forums - Sales - Predict when Switch 2 will overtake PS5 lifetime sales in Japan.

 

When will Switch 2 overtake PS5 lifetime sales in Japan?

September (2026) 1 8.33%
 
October (2026) 0 0%
 
November (2026) 3 25.00%
 
December (2026) 6 50.00%
 
January (2027) 1 8.33%
 
February (2027) 0 0%
 
March (2027) 1 8.33%
 
Total:12

With the Switch 2 now reaching 5M sales in Japan vs PS5s 7,5M, when do you think Switch 2 will overtake PS5 in Japan?



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EDIT: NVM, that will teach me to post at 10pm when I am half asleep lmao

Last edited by curl-6 - 3 days ago

curl-6 said:

1.5 million to go, if it holds an average baseline of say 50k that's 30 weeks or about 7.5 months, which would be November.

Its 2,5M to go (5M vs 7,5M) and not to mention PS5 will continue to add on that number the coming months, so would more likely be around 7,7-7,8 when Switch 2 is closing in on it.



PS5 has slowed to a crawl, moving at around 50k a month at its current baseline which would get it to say 7.85m by the holidays, assuming it doesn't fall even further.

If Switch 2 has a strong holiday lineup and a couple more big games sprinked throughout the rest of the year, it could possibly make it around the time the new year rolls around, or in early 2027.

A lot will depend on what their software schedule looks like over the next 9 months.

Last edited by curl-6 - 3 days ago

By December.



My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / JP 2026 / 2026 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

PS5 vs SW2 in 2026 / Best holiday months / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

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Definitely November or (my guess) December. NS2 should be able to sell 1-2 million in just those two months alone assuming nothing catastrophic happens between now and then.



curl-6 said:

EDIT: NVM, that will teach me to post at 10pm when I am half asleep lmao

10pm?? You’re half asleep at 10pm?! I’m still working/studying/exercising at the time of day lol. I’m usually not out until 2am.



firebush03 said:
curl-6 said:

EDIT: NVM, that will teach me to post at 10pm when I am half asleep lmao

10pm?? You’re half asleep at 10pm?! I’m still working/studying/exercising at the time of day lol. I’m usually not out until 2am.

I used to stay up til the am hours when I was younger, but as I get older I find I need my full 8 hours sleep, and it takes me hours of lying in bed to drop off (thanks ADHD brain) so I need to be in bed by around 10pm if I wanna be asleep by midnight and get 8 hours without sleeping in too much.

I'm also on some pretty powerful meds for anxiety and the ones I take at night make me drowsy.