Sony announced their latest shipment figures: 2.5m in CQ2 which brings the YTD total to 5.3m in comparison to Switch 2's 5.82m.

Doesn't change much about what I think since the last time I posted here. It's an actual contest and it's important that Switch 2 maintains momentum in CQ3; the release schedule is light in terms of big hitters in August and September. But given that Switch 2 actually holds a 0.52m lead, I'll adjust the odds of winning to 50/50 compared to 80/20 in favor of the PS5 that I stated in June.

Which quarter do you think PS5 has a chance at catching back up? Or are you more leaning towards shortages to hinder Switch 2 during the holiday season? 

For the PS5 to ship more than Switch 2 this year it will need to dominate Switch 2 in Europe/NA, given the huge advantage Switch 2 shipments have in Japan over PS5.

CQ3 is the PS5's best chance. And if it does catch up, then that simultaneously means that Switch 2 enters the holiday quarter with reduced momentum.

Conversely, if Switch 2 extends its YTD lead in CQ3 to more than 1m, then it will be quite safe to call the contest in favor of Switch 2.

An increase in the PS5 console prices will cement everything.

An increase in ps5 prices? Bold strategy. Let's see if it plays out for them

I think SW2 should be a safe bet now.

On another note though, PS5 could be on track to do something no other Playstation hardware has done - next fiscal year and the fiscal year after that, it could again reach up to 20m units sold during a calendar/fiscal year.

Provided GTA6 will release in 2026, even if in Fall.

And then there's still the possibility Sony could cut the prices for all PS5 models, boosting sales again.

On the software side of things, PS5 is going to have a great sunset until PS6 arrives.

Yep, opposite to PS4 gen, Sony has 2 aces up it's sleeve here. One is the GTA 6, which will no doubt give a nice boost for the PS5, the other one is, because of the higher price, if of course the tariffs issue is over by next year, or more like 2027, they can cut the price (since that will be smarter to do, than do it in the GTA 6 release year). But the year is Switch 2's now, the holidays historically were stronger for Nintendo. So I think in the end Switch 2 will pass it by shipments for the fiscal year.

The only way PlayStation can take this now is if Sony's CEO stumbles over this thread, gets his ego super hurt, goes insane and slashes the price of the PS5 down to $349, absorbing all the loses.

Pouring that cement.  No chance now.