I went with 75m-100m. Basically I'm thinking like 90m.

If they hadn't completely screwed up all the pricing and had Mario coming out on launch day to drive word of mouth from launch (though Mario Kart looks incredible enough to do that to a lesser extent) I woulda thought 120m-130m given how great the system looks.

If they admit their pricing mistake and fix it soon to make Nintendo affordable again then I'd say it can do 100m-110m, but as things stand I don't see that happening. At these prices some people won't be buying ever, lots of parents won't be buying one for each kid again (or won't be doing a docked Switch + Lite combo for the kids) and lots of people won't be buying the original model and then upgrading to a later OLED model. Just too expensive for most people to do that sort of stuff at these prices. One more possibility is if they come out with a Switch 2 Home that's reasonably priced, like $300, and they don't wait too late in the gen to do it, that could drive a lot of sales and I think would at least push them over 100m.

If they do nothing to fix things and just go with the Switch strategy of keeping the same cost forever, it's going to be a much slower gen for Nintendo and maybe we'll see them fix that mistake next time around, like Sony did after PS3. Right now Switch 2 is looking like Sony's PS3 debacle. Though Nintendo at least won't have to worry about a Wii-like competitor dominating the space for 2-3 years, but on the other hand Nintendo doesn't have nearly the committed base that Playstation has, so I think those two things even out to give Switch 2 a similar drop in sales that PS3 had from PS2.

It's of course too early to tell. So all of these are purely blind predictions. But for the sake of it I went with 100-125M. I think it will definitely sell lower than the Switch 1, but still high enough, to be in the very good sales territory.

I very much think it's gonna outsell the Switch, which might still climb to 170m if nintendo cut's the price and make nintendo selects.
The "predictions" here are almost on par with the nonsense from the period of the switch reveal.

Nintendo is delivering capable hardware, cheaper than it's main competitor, that is both portable and home console, will run all the 3rd partie titles that are on ps5 while looking basically the same AND has the best 1st party library by a landslide. Guess which console the mass market will prefer?

Early, mid and late adopters of the switch will be early, mid and late adopters of the Switch 2. There will also be many who didn't get a switch who will now get a Switch 2 instead of a ps5 or xsx/xss and never look back.

I'm also going to adress something that's been bothering me. Many beings in this forum keep saying that Switch 2 has no chance to outsell the switch because of covid. I can't stress enough how extremely dumb and ignorant that is. For starters, covid didn't make people who weren't gonna buy a console suddenly get it. It made people who already wanted a console getbit sooner. No different than the 3ds price cut.

Furthermore, we need to analyze a scenario without covid for the switch. In that case, it likely would get a price cut to $249 in 2020, so oled eould later release for $299 and many games delayed due to covid would have released sooner. And while I don't think that price cut would be enough for switch to sell as well as during covid in 2020 and 2021, post covid years of 2022 to now would have sold higher than it did due to lower price. So current switch sales would be the same or even higher if covid never happened. Saying NS2 won't beat the NS because there won't be a covid is a big nothing sandwich.

Another thing to note is that nintendo really delivered what gamers want. 120 and 40fps support and tmall kinds of games. The Switch had basically all A and AA titles out there, now the Switch 2 is also getting all the AAA.

There's a reason why nintendo opened their 3rd party showcase with Elden Ring, had the biggest 3rd party software of past few years in the muddle and ended with The Duskbloods. It shows a clear message that it's also getting basically every future 3rd party title on the same day as others. And we already know the markets prefer the switch when given the option and there's little to no difference when compared to competitors.

Do you believe there is any price it could have released at to help match Switch? 299.99? 399.99? I don't think there is anything they could do to help Switch 2 match Switch outside of something unforeseen, maybe blue ocean type innovative. 

Voted for 125m to 150m. Specifically, I can see it potentially reaching 130m even. At the very least, over PS4/GB. I feel like the complaints about the price are overblown.

Of course it did that. So many people who were used to spending tons of time and money outdoors were now no longer allowed to do that for a while so there was a huge shift towards entertainment that can be consumed at home which will naturally have included people buying a console who wouldn't have otherwise. Even a small portion of people who previously only played games on a phone or people who hadn't used a console since the DS and Wii days deciding to get a Switch cause of that shift makes a significant difference and the PS4 and Xbox One would've obviously sold more thanks to covid if Sony and Microsoft kept producing stock for them so the notion that the many millions who bought a Switch in 2020-2022 due to the pandemic were all already intending to get one is utterly absurd.

Covid and the lockdowns causing a big boost in spending on video games is a well documented fact so the only debate to be had with this is just how big of a boost the Switch got from that. It getting a price cut and less games being delayed would not have made up for that since the Switch's declines each year since 2020 haven't been that big so if it sold like 22m in 2020 instead 2021 to now still would've been lower even with a more gradual decline. Also saying that's extremely dumb and ignorant is funny when earlier you say the Switch has a chance of reaching 170m. Its sales pace so far this year makes it abundantly clear that even with a price cut it doesn't have another 20m left in the tank.

I won't repeat myself since you obviously didn't read or chose to ignore things that I said.

What are you talking about? I clearly responded to what you said.

PS5 released at 499$ and it seemed high, but it's neck in neck with the PS4. So if Switch 1 should be what PS4 is for PS5 then 399$ should definitely increase the chances of Switch 2 matching the Switch 1. Just like PS5 is 100$ more than the PS4 and is matching it till this point (barely behind with 2-3M is nothing, and besides it will only get easier from now on for the PS5) of course the same 7-8 year lifecycle is needed however. With 299$ (in this time and age that is like 199$ price before) would almost surely pass the Switch 1.