I also think Switch 2 will be sucessull. Why i m so (not peimistic but) carefull has a logical reason. Remember expectations in the WiiU? Sucessor to the market leading Nr.1 console of Gen 7 selling 100 million+ consoles? "It cannot do worse than 50 million"- thats only one prediction i remember. We know how that turned out. I also remember the PS3- sucessor to the PS2, the most sold video gaming system- how could it ever fail?! Nr. 1 is secured. 100 milliom+ is the floor, "Revolution (codename of the Wii) is chanceless", "Xbox is a nobody". We also know the end of that one. It only managed to stay ~ on par with the Xbox, if vgchartz was to be believed MS did even sell more software than PS3 and Wii was Nr.1. Also the infamous "walkman of the 21 century" that was supposed to be a Gameboy Killer even failing to hit 100 million should serve as an example!

In Skandinavia you say: Don't sell the fish before you caught it! Anything can happen. Thats why i am putting 30- 50 million as a pesimistic floor for the Switch 2. I am no Switch 2 hater and I think it will be higher but i don't want to look like a fool, predicting gold and platin only to recieve bronce and metal after.

PlayStation self-imploding referring to the fact that almost all their first party studios having been developing live-service titles which would eventually need to be scrapped. Not saying that PlayStation is cratering as a brand, but rather that Sony may not have nearly as exciting an offering as Nintendo for the next years b/c of all the cancelled games, thereby giving way for NSW2 to sell through some crazy figures. 

I think COVID was a huge factor to the Switch's success, as well as a huge appetite at the time for modernised Nintendo games with BOTW really setting the pace. I see it doing PS4 like numbers (above 100m but well below 150m), but really depends on many factors such as price, competition and the quality / appeal of the games. The new 3D Zelda won't come in before year 3 as well which might hinder initial sales, though I still expect it to beat lifetime Wii U sales by year 1

Glancing at the poll, I’m curious… Who voted for <20mil?? Does somebody genuinely think this system isn’t even gonna hit GCN levels of success? (Or, more likely, was somebody simply engaging in a little bit of “trolling”?) Lol.

Switch was outpacing even the PS4 launch allinged before Covid even started. I don't think Covid was the reason for Switch doing well because it was sucessfull before. Also there was inflation during the war in ukraine. If anything, sales would have catered wich did not happen. In 2019 (before Covid) Nintendo promised a 10 years lifecycle for the Switch. In a bit more than 2 years this promise will be fullfiled!! 

@Firebush 03 <20 million is wishfull hater thinking. I go with a careful 30- 50 million LTD minimum!

Not exactly. The moment Switch started selling more than the PS4 every month, was exactly with the Covid boost in 2020. And the moment when Switch passed it was in the 2020 holiday season (with total passing of lifetime sales in holiday 2022). If we don't holiday aligned it, they were going on top of each other for the first 3 years, until Switch pulls ahead with the Covid boost.

I'm also quite curious who voted for <20 mil...come out come out whoever you are!

Do you have a table for the launch aligned numbers? (Or rather, would you be able to share? Knowing you, i have no doubt you’ve got them somewhere lol.) To me, it looks like NSW started closing in on PS4 right around the start of 2019, with the gap really starting to close with NSWLite [Sept 2019] and later COVID.

Table for launch aligned, no, since there was such a chart from trunks on the sales articles which run till November 2022. There it can be seen how for 3 years one came on top of the other, and in 2020 with the Covid boost, Switch skyrocketed. The corresponding year (holiday aligned) to 2019 for PS4 was 2016. Monthly they were doing very close, but the holiday was stronger for the Switch, just after the Lite launched. Monthly based outside of holidays, Switch started to constantly outsell the PS4 corresponding period in 2020. For most of 2019 until the holidays it was like a tie, one month for PS4, one for Switch.

Do you see how in 2016/2019 for PS4/Switch they follow each other with positive and negative difference ? and how in 2020/2017 after March, everything is in the side of Switch ? That's what I mean by constantly outselling it every month.

The pandemic isn't the reason the Switch outsold the PS4, because the Switch continued to outpace the PS4 long after the lockdowns ended and life had pretty much returned to normal for most people.