I think COVID was a huge factor to the Switch's success, as well as a huge appetite at the time for modernised Nintendo games with BOTW really setting the pace. I see it doing PS4 like numbers (above 100m but well below 150m), but really depends on many factors such as price, competition and the quality / appeal of the games. The new 3D Zelda won't come in before year 3 as well which might hinder initial sales, though I still expect it to beat lifetime Wii U sales by year 1