170 million copies for switch 2

Yes, but you also have the rumoured Xbox and PS handhelds too. I also think the Switch 1 will also be a competitor to it because of the way the Switch 2 looks and it's rumoured pricing makes it present more like a Switch Pro, and if that's the case the base model of the PS4 proves that the older model can compete with the newer one if it's cheaper

The thing about COVID (aided by a perfectly timed Animal Crossing) is that it didn't just boost Switch's sales for the effected period. A few million "COVID players" (5 million I'd guesstimate) are now semi-permanent Nintendo gamers. When you invite new gamers to an excellent platform, you're probably going to retain many if not most of them. The Switch 2 is going to have a different sales curve/progress than the Switch 1 but their sales totals might not be very different, and honestly it could still pass it. The momentum is great.

I think it will sell less for sure, but nowhere near a disaster.

The market circumstances are completely different, with the market overall becoming increasingly splintered and segmented, and there's no COVID-pandemic to drive unnatural second-wind turns in anyone's lifecycle this time around (even previous gen consoles had a lift). Add to that some confusion around naming convention and design for the more casual (yeah, I know, some will kill me for using an illegal word) consumer, and reaching the Switch's numbers seems lofty.

Static entertainment products and electronics are having as hard a time as ever, just about the only way of keeping units flying is refreshing and going for revisions (this is the same for all consoles). We'll also see how pricing affects it, large parts of the world are in an insecure phase economically right now (again; this applies to all other machines as well). Yes, phones are still selling well, but it's an entirely different world; the smartphone still has by far the highest perceived value of any consumer electronics product. But even smartphone sales are down in the past 3-4 years, overall.

The market for consoles overall is significantly smaller than it was in the peak 7th generation. The total sales of the Switch+PS5+Xbox SeriesX/S is about 260 million, the 7th gen home consoles sold nearly 240 million, with another 220-ish million units from the handheld segment. That's about 460 million in total, while the 9th will be lucky to cross 300-310 million at this rate, the market for dedicated consoles has shrunk dramatically, in spite of the industry overall having grown immensely over the same period of time. I believe the industry is about five times as big today, in revenue, as it was when the Xbox 360 released, that puts the sales numbers of 7th gen of consoles into even more perspective. To further drive home the above-mentioned economical point, the industry only grew about 2.1% in 2024, according to reports, this is peanuts compared to many previous years. Many major publishers and developers are bleeding, stocks tanking, and console sales were rather slow in general for 2024.

If I had to pick a number, I think the Switch 2, barring any major reveals or developments, will sell about 110-125 million units. But it's just pure speculation at this point. I do think it will have a really solid launch, Japan is a given, but also EU will contribute greatly.

Colin’s absolutely sure this time that Switch 2 won’t outsell the PS Vita.

Sorry my bad, but still considerably down. Yes in 2020 it started it outselling it launch allinged, but since 2019 Switch was ahead clearly. Covid sure did much for the Switch no doubt, but the Switch was sucessfull long before Covid even started. The strange thing is: Why PS4 and Xbox one/ PS5 and Xbox SeX/SS did not benefit from Covid?

First: PS4: If Nintendo (a much smaller company than Sony) is able to ship/ produce 28 million+ Switch systems, wich require LCD screens as well and are harder to produce than PS4 an already established plattform, why is Sony not able to ship more than 8,5 million PS4s? Yes the console was on its way out but 8,5 million is really low. And the system started to be down YoY in 2019, before Covid.

XboxOne: No further explaination needed!

Xbox Series: Same

PS5: The so called "supply castrained" myth i do not buy. Nobody can tell me that Sony was not able to ship more PS5s than Switch systems in 2021 (the year it started being down YoY- of course on a high level). After its peak in 2023 PS5 started being down YoY in 2024. Sony as a biggrr company than Nintendo should have been able producinge more to begin with.

were you the one who chose <20mil on the poll?

They will be digital only. A huge disadvantage vs the Switch 2. Not even a potential PSP3/ PSV2 would outsell the Switch (2), an Xbox mobile is completly chanceless, unless they produce it forever, making only revisions and no sucessor... for both potential handhelds that won't happen.

As I already said, both PS4 and XB1 had boost. Not as big as the Switch, but still they had boost due to covid. You can go and see on any sales article here or on some of my comparisons what have been the numbers, or how the chart lines were almost as big as the holiday before that, or compare the sales YOY from the tables.

By the time XBSX and PS5 launched, the pandemic boost was nowhere to be found, since it was there in the months from March somewhere till the summer. Long before the next gen launched.

Nope. I chose the 50-75 million option