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The thing about COVID (aided by a perfectly timed Animal Crossing) is that it didn't just boost Switch's sales for the effected period. A few million "COVID players" (5 million I'd guesstimate) are now semi-permanent Nintendo gamers. When you invite new gamers to an excellent platform, you're probably going to retain many if not most of them. The Switch 2 is going to have a different sales curve/progress than the Switch 1 but their sales totals might not be very different, and honestly it could still pass it. The momentum is great.