I genuinely expected the deficit to be much larger, so good for Nintendo to keep it so close in Europe. 40 to 43 million I guess depending on Switch 2's release.

It's crazy because Sony truly dominated Europe but I think it's because they rely a lot on Eastern Europe.
In France, UK, and Spain, the best selling console is the Nintendo DS and it's really far from the PS2 Numbers.
In France, the best selling consoles are Nintendo DS, Switch, Gameboy, Wii, PS4 in this order. So maybe if Europe is the weakest market for the Switch is because Eastern Europe doesn't show enough interest in Nintendo ?

Eastern europe is typically Playstation terretory. There are a lot of teenagers there. Unfortunally a lot of uneducated ones. No matter how strong an Xbox console is there (XSX is more powerfull than PS5slim, even has native Dolby Atmos, what PS5 lacks) people trash anything but Playstation.  Xbox could be a 100 TF machine while PS is a 10 TF console, people still would choose the latter. I could never understand the fascination in Playstation personally. The only time i was super hyped about it was the first Playstation because of Tekken (Ridge Racer) and its outtanding Light Gun libary (Point Blank, Time Crisis, Elemental Gearbolt, Judge Dreed, Rescue Shoot, Moorhuhn, just to name a few). 

It will be around 39.5M shipped at the end of the current fiscal year, it will probably crawl to 43M to 44M over the following 3 to 4 years.

These numbers are shipped.

Time to renew the poll. Vote now!
The sales in Europe are 7-8k weekly and 30k monthly. Last year the Switch 1 sold 1.2M in Europe, this year they are 170k with May included. It's at 39.8M right now. The shipments are 40.03M as of March 31st 2026.

Switch should sit somewhere in the upper end of 40M, lower end of 41M.