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Forums - Sales Discussion - November Circana (NPD) 2024 Thread + Predictions

The_Liquid_Laser said:

Congrats to the Switch!  It's already taken the top spot of all time in Japan and now it is #2 in the US.  Only the DS is left for the Switch to pass in the US.  It will be interesting to see if it can pull it off when all is said and done.

JRPGfan said:


I'm curious if Nintendo aim for 399$ again.

When did they aim for $399 the first time?

Holy fudgecake... I miss remembered how much it launched at O_O.



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XtremeBG said:
javi741 said:

Guys did the NPD sales numbers for last year November 2023 include the sales numbers on Black Friday? Because if it didn't that would make sense why the Switch is essentially flat compared to last year despite being older since this year would've included the critical Black Friday sales that last year's didn't have.

I remember November 2023's NPD being a notoriously big drop over 40% for the Switch. That's why I'm wondering about that.

Also it really looks like Xbox is dying, even with the Xbox One Microsoft used to be neck & neck with the PS4 in U.S sales, but now it seems like PS is dominating the only competitive region Xbox has which is the U.S. I know Microsoft doesn't prioritize hardware sales anymore, but damn they still matter if you want people to get into the Xbox Gamepass ecosystem especially more than PC.

It seems a lot of people have trouble with using the easy and nice hardware by date tool here on the website.

Last year November sales were till 26th of November, which included Black Friday and the weekend after that. Last year Switch was down massively, compared to 2022. Which is the same case now when comparing it to 2022. But comparing it to 2023 US sales, sales were flat. The pure difference in numbers is 17k for this November, however this November the data is till 30th of November, last year the data was till November 26th. So it's not really that up year on year. Yes it's 4 weeks again, but 4 days where the sales are stronger were left out of last year's data for November, and are here for this November. If it were till end of November sales would probably be a bit down. Of course the final result is still very good for Switch, but it's not really up year over year when you take that into account, and also the fact that the sale offers were bigger for the system compared to last year. Also Xbox is a lot weaker, this also contribute to some chunk of the sales going to the Switch (of course most of them goes to the PS5).

However I expect December to be down compared to last year, since it has been down all year but November. But that is not something bad of course, it's normal for 8th year old console. People are getting so hyped up, it says up year on year, that they forget to make the calculations, and react like it's 20% up year on year for the whole holiday. 17k is not up, 17k difference is flat. It's so negligible it can't be really counted as up year on year. It's essentially flat because of the biggest sale offers to date for the Switch and the difference in the tracking dates. December will be from 1st unlike from 26th November like last year. Last year Switch did 1.3M in US for December.

So basically you are upset you got it wrong again, where on the front page you expected Switch to be significantly down and instead it's flat or up but you are bothered by posters saying it's up because you know what this means in the grand scheme of surpassing a certain milestone. Also, as usual, you came up with excuses of why you were wrong such as Xbox is collapsing and Switch had retailer deals. Thats my assessment of this post, am I accurate here? You tell me!



Phenomajp13 said:

So basically you are upset you got it wrong again, where on the front page you expected Switch to be significantly down and instead it's flat or up but you are bothered by posters saying it's up because you know what this means in the grand scheme of surpassing a certain milestone. Also, as usual, you came up with excuses of why you were wrong such as Xbox is collapsing and Switch had retailer deals. Thats my assessment of this post, am I accurate here? You tell me!

You are not accurate here, because you make your own interpretations of what I wrote, and put words in my mouth (and not only this time but pretty much every time). I am simply saying my opinion on the US sales for November here while answering @javi741 's question. I can't be upset or happy if a console is doing well or bad (no matter which one it is) since it's not so much important to me, to have feelings or to take it so personal the way you explained it here. Also you are wrong. I have never ever made predictions for November, for them to be wrong. If you point to the comment in one of the articles that one was for the holiday period not for November alone. And when December is over you will see that my projection was correct, or at least close. Also I can't be bothered by poster let alone good one like @javi741 . The only one here who is bothered by posters according to my observations is you, whenever there is a post about doubting Switch continuing sales or mention PS2, you always jump.

A certain milestone ? Do you really think that some hundreds of units more (assuming you are saying it like I am expecting 400k or something and is doing 580k) is something compared to more than 15M more left ? It's nothing. But to answer your point, I have never thought of that milestone since some 2 weeks ago when the discussion about that was last bring up by some other posters and I read over the posts. You obviously take this whole thing with the milestone like some dream of yours, that you constantly think of, since you are mentioning it in almost each of your posts. Well if it's that, it's not that for all the other people.

Last edited by XtremeBG - 5 days ago

My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart

Polls: When will the Switch: Outsell the DS? / Outsell the PS2? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX

XtremeBG said:
Phenomajp13 said:

So basically you are upset you got it wrong again, where on the front page you expected Switch to be significantly down and instead it's flat or up but you are bothered by posters saying it's up because you know what this means in the grand scheme of surpassing a certain milestone. Also, as usual, you came up with excuses of why you were wrong such as Xbox is collapsing and Switch had retailer deals. Thats my assessment of this post, am I accurate here? You tell me!

You are not accurate here, because you make your own interpretations of what I wrote, and put words in my mouth (and not only this time but pretty much every time). I am simply saying my opinion on the US sales for November here while answering @javi741 's question. I can't be upset or happy if a console is doing well or bad (no matter which one it is) since it's not so much important to me, to have feelings or to take it so personal the way you explained it here. Also you are wrong. I have never ever made predictions for November, for them to be wrong. If you point to the comment in one of the articles that one was for the holiday period not for November alone. And when December is over you will see that my projection was correct, or at least close. Also I can't be bothered by poster let alone good one like @javi741 . The only one here who is bothered by posters according to my observations is you, whenever there is a post about doubting Switch continuing sales or mention PS2, you always jump.

A certain milestone ? Do you really think that some hundreds of units more (assuming you are saying it like I am expecting 400k or something and is doing 580k) is something compared to more than 15M more left ? It's nothing. But to answer your point, I have never thought of that milestone since some 2 weeks ago when the discussion about that was last bring up by some other posters and I read over the posts. You obviously take this whole thing with the milestone like some dream of yours, that you constantly think of, since you are mentioning it in almost each of your posts. Well if it's that, it's not that for all the other people.

The very first post shows your prediction lol of 350K. I dont care for the rest of the post. ;)



Phenomajp13 said:

The very first post shows your prediction lol of 350K. I dont care for the rest of the post. ;)

Oooh that one. Yea, I simply put some numbers there, and expected it will continue to be somewhat down year on year. For that one, yes obviously I was short. But that has nothing to do with anything you wrote, in your previous post.

I got it wrong ? Again ? If you count all my predictions till now you will see that those coming close or right at the point were a lot more than those coming wrong. You say it like I am always wrong, when for the predictions I am mostly right. But again this has nothing to do with what you just said in your previous post.

Where are your predictions ? Why you don't do some of those ? As often as I do ? To see who is better at them ? It's very easy to point someone who is doing them, while you don't do almost any, and call them wrong. Of course sometimes the people doing them can be wrong, but you can't be wrong because you are not doing them.. Take part in them, be right every time, then shoot at me for being wrong, not only watching from the side bench, doing mostly right predictions, and when you see some wrong one jump and try to accuse. The only prediction from you I remember is that Switch will pass the PS2. I've done at least a few every year, and almost all of those come true.

Last edited by XtremeBG - 5 days ago

My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart

Polls: When will the Switch: Outsell the DS? / Outsell the PS2? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX

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XtremeBG said:
Phenomajp13 said:

The very first post shows your prediction lol of 350K. I dont care for the rest of the post. ;)

Oooh that one. Yea, I simply put some numbers there, and expected it will continue to be somewhat down year on year. For that one, yes obviously I was short. But that has nothing to do with anything you wrote, in your previous post.

I got it wrong ? Again ? If you count all my predictions till now you will see that those coming close or right at the point were a lot more than those coming wrong. You say it like I am always wrong, when for the predictions I am mostly right. But again this has nothing to do with what you just said in your previous post.

It has everything to do with my previous post lol because it is literally what I'm accusing you of. I said you were wrong again (the 350K) and that entire post was nothing more than you being bothered by being again. I'll let you get the last word though, I'm just enjoying my victory lap!



Phenomajp13 said:

It has everything to do with my previous post lol because it is literally what I'm accusing you of. I said you were wrong again (the 350K) and that entire post was nothing more than you being bothered by being again. I'll let you get the last word though, I'm just enjoying my victory lap!

Victory lap of what ? That you didn't even participate in that prediction thread and I did ? And I came short once, and because of that you beat me ? If so then for the October NPD thread when I was almost on point, I would've beaten you, right? And September as well, should I list all the others too ? I will quote my edited part of the last post since you didn't read it:

" Where are your predictions ? Why you don't do some of those ? As often as I do ? To see who is better at them ? It's very easy to point someone who is doing them, while you don't do almost any, and call them wrong. Of course sometimes the people doing them can be wrong, but you can't be wrong because you are not doing them. Take part in them, be right every time, then shoot at me for being wrong, not only watching from the side bench, doing mostly right predictions, and when you see some wrong one jump and try to accuse. The only prediction from you I remember is that Switch will pass the PS2. I've done at least a few every year, and almost all of those come true. "

So you are beating all of the other posters who were wrong every time as well, despite you not taking part in the predictions at all according to your logic. Your post was about accusing me of getting upset and bothered, and I already answered you on that in one of my previous posts, the only person here who is getting upset and bothered is you obviously, as everyone can tell, since you jump every time I say something related to Switch or PS2. It's not me who is jumping on your posts, it's you. It's also you the one who is taking all of this like some sort of personal war or battle.

Last edited by XtremeBG - 5 days ago

My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart

Polls: When will the Switch: Outsell the DS? / Outsell the PS2? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX

Where Europe numbers (just want to break your fight guys)?



JRPGfan said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Congrats to the Switch!  It's already taken the top spot of all time in Japan and now it is #2 in the US.  Only the DS is left for the Switch to pass in the US.  It will be interesting to see if it can pull it off when all is said and done.

When did they aim for $399 the first time?

Holy fudgecake... I miss remembered how much it launched at O_O.

LOL, to be fair, inflation has been really high all over the world.  Our idea of what a normal price is doesn't match what we were thinking 7-8 years ago.



Xbox Series is in line with my expectations but the other two significantly exceeded them which is nice to see. Both of them seem like they're gonna end the year with a bang.

killer7 said:
JRPGfan said:

There is always PC, if these consoles start getting too expensive.
The thing is, everything is getting more expensive, these days.

I'm curious if Nintendo aim for 399$ again.
Last time, with the switch they wanted good returns on BoM and selling the hardware.
If Switch 2, is as powerful as we hope, that might squeeze them into the 450$ range,
(unless they are willing to accept selling at slightly less earned pr sale of unit than the switch).

At 700$ for a PS6, that still sounds like good value, if your competition is the older PS5 and the Switch 2, in terms of bang for buck.

Nobody is interested in the PC. 

The possibility of PS6 being digital only is growing more each passing month as ~70% and growing software sales are digital. I am afraid that Nintendo will be the last man standing with physical for at least another 2 generations...

Where did you get this from? PC gaming has grown a lot in the past several years and is bigger than Playstation as a platform. If Sony overprices the PS6 then some people will absolutely switch to PC due to that.

IcaroRibeiro said:

Sony has a big infrastructure and internal resources focused in hardware development. Their increase in hardware prices are an evidence they are committed to be hardware makers, as their hardware helps them to make their software and services more popular and profitable. If you own a PC there is no point in subscribing for a PS Plus for example

That's why they are moving away from lower prices and instead are selling hardware at profit, just like Nintendo

I think with exception of Spider Man most of their single players first parties sells poorly on PCs (compared to PS5), PC sales are not necessary for Sony games to break even, or even to turn into profit. They are more advertising of Sonys brand and games, if anything. Sony is doing that because they probably already exhausted the pool of consumers on Playstation userbase.

During PS4 days Sony was almost giving away their first party games for free, anyone who was interested in Spider Man, Horizon or Uncharted could get them for dirty cheap, so Sony likely figured out if they want their IPs to keep growing there is no other way other than releasing them on PCs

Not quite. God of War 2018 and Horizon Zero Dawn have both been at least as successful as Spider-Man 2018 on PC and Ghost of Tsushima has had a strong start with it having the highest peak concurrent player count among the single player games and having good legs so far. Days Gone has also done well though there is a big gap with how much they've sold on Playstation. A lot of that will be due to them releasing there first and what you said towards the end however.

Last edited by Norion - 4 days ago