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Forums - Sales Discussion - Lifetime sales predictions for current consoles?

Bumblaster on 23 September 2024
Bofferbrauer2 said:
Pajderman said:

I think diminishing returns on that power increase will make it a harder sell. In the demo of PS5 pro it was very hard to see any difference. They will need to use benchmarks or something other than just show the visuals. 

It was hard to see because many things are holding the PS5 Pro back:

  1. Only a GPU upgrade, the Zen 2 CPU is pretty slow by today's standards. The small clock speed increase doesn't do much to address any CPU limitations, especially in performance mode.
  2. RAM still only 16GB, which is pretty small. It already wasn't big when the PS5 came out, but the need for RAM and VRAM went up sharply since then. Which means smaller, more compressed (and thus less detailed) textures and less details overall. It being clocked faster doesn't help in that regard.
  3. The overall performance increase is pretty small with just 45%. The PS4 Pro managed almost double that over the PS4.
  4. Old games, many even PS4 being originally PS4 titles. There wasn't much to improve in those titles to begin with.
  5. And of course, spotty YouTube compression didn't help when it came to noticing the difference.

Had Sony chosen to increase the RAM to 24 or even 32GB and updated the CPU to at least Zen 3 with a slightly smaller GPU, I'm sure it would look markedly better for the same price.



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Norion on 23 September 2024

The Switch ending up just below or just above exactly 160M is a pretty safe bet but for the other two there's still quite a bit of uncertainty since when the successors release will have a significant impact. The PS5 beating the PS4 or not will probably come down to when the PS6 releases and for the Xbox Series it'll determine where in the 40's it'll end up at with it reaching 50m being a possibility if it lasts till late 2028.

javi741 said:

Tbh we might be underestimating the PS5/SeriesX sales a bit. Yea sales for those consoles are slower than the previous gen but I feel like GTA 6 could be huge enough and singlehandedly change that. Probably the most anticipated game in history and will be exclusive to consoles for nearly a year before it goes to PC, and it's gonna be a next gen exclusive giving PS4/XboxOne owners a true reason to finally upgrade, sales been a bit slower for next gem adoption because of how many cross gen games there are at this point.

GTA 6 will for sure cause a big surge the month it comes out but other than that I think its impact will be smaller than most people expect since by the time it comes out the vast majority of people who will buy it on the PS5 or Xbox Series will already own one. We're looking at a late 2025 release at the earliest at this point which will be starting to get to the late stages of the generation when even console exclusive games as big as RDR2 don't cause much of a boost at all. GTA 6 will have a significantly bigger impact than that game though of course.



XtremeBG on 23 September 2024

Nintendo Switch - 155M to 160M

PlayStation 5 - 100M to 120M

Xbox Series X/S - 35M to 40M



My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 2022 / 2021

Global LT Showdown / Regional LT Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart / Quantity of Games

The_Liquid_Laser on 23 September 2024

Switch - 170M

PS5 - 105M

X|S - 45M



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox

JRPGfan on 23 September 2024
Bofferbrauer2 said:
Pajderman said:

I think diminishing returns on that power increase will make it a harder sell. In the demo of PS5 pro it was very hard to see any difference. They will need to use benchmarks or something other than just show the visuals. 

It was hard to see because many things are holding the PS5 Pro back:

  1. Only a GPU upgrade, the Zen 2 CPU is pretty slow by today's standards. The small clock speed increase doesn't do much to address any CPU limitations, especially in performance mode.
  2. RAM still only 16GB, which is pretty small. It already wasn't big when the PS5 came out, but the need for RAM and VRAM went up sharply since then. Which means smaller, more compressed (and thus less detailed) textures and less details overall. It being clocked faster doesn't help in that regard.
  3. The overall performance increase is pretty small with just 45%. The PS4 Pro managed almost double that over the PS4.
  4. Old games, many even PS4 being originally PS4 titles. There wasn't much to improve in those titles to begin with.
  5. And of course, spotty YouTube compression didn't help when it came to noticing the difference.

Had Sony chosen to increase the RAM to 24 or even 32GB and updated the CPU to at least Zen 3 with a slightly smaller GPU, I'm sure it would look markedly better for the same price.

1) its clocked at 3.85ghz vs 3.5ghz, all cores. Thats a 10% increase.
2) It has 13,7 GB of addressable memory (vs 12,5 GB for the normal PS5) (better compression? not sure how they did this)
3) Over 45% increased performance, running the same game code.  However it also has playstation version of DLSS and hardware to use it.
    If you use all the tech on hand (ei. also that dlss stuff), you could see performance differences way waaaay higher than that.
4) True, older PS4 titles likely wont benefit much, even if they can upscale it with this dlss like tech.
5) yes, 1080p stream and youtube compression didn't do it any favors.

I think people are underestimating how big the difference will be though.



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Panicradio on 23 September 2024

That's a tough one.

Nintendo is reaching the end of NSW. PS5 will most likely stay around until Nov. '27. And I could see the 'Xbox Next' arriving in Nov. '26 already, short-cutting the PS6.

So, okay.

• Provided the PS5 will see a) an official price cut (599 globally for PS5 Pro, 399/299 PS5 Slim) until the PS6 arrives and b) at least one big 1st title from each of their studios, some more (time-) exclusive 2nd and 3rd party titles.

• Provided NSW Switch will receive a price cut before fading out.

• Provided X|S will have a price cut too (although I don't see Microsoft putting in any more efforts into exclusive big 1st party titles for X|S at this point in time).

Then I'd go with (sell-through numbers):

• Switch - 158m.
• PS5 - 131m.
• X|S - 39m.

Last edited by Panicradio - on 24 September 2024

Tober on 24 September 2024

Switch - 180M
I know this sounds crazy, but I have two reasons for it. First Foxconn announced a new factory in Vietnam to build 4M Switches a year. Second, I believe Switch2 will be $449 at least. Therefore I think Switch1 will remain the entry level console for approx 5-6 years after the Switch2 launch. Think Famicom vs. Super Famicom.

Xbox - 35M
This is based on that the successor is rumored to launch in 2026. I think MS is going to drop the current Xbox fast, like they did with Xbox1.

PS5 - 100M
This is based on PS6 launching in 2028. With no price cuts on the Horizon I see about 40M to be the max for PS5 in the remaining years. Those missing price cuts also makes me think that PS5 will be discontinued pretty fast after PS6 launch.

Edit: Source of new Vietnam factory for Switch: https://vir.com.vn/nintendo-switch-to-be-produced-by-foxconn-in-vietnam-113032.html

Last edited by Tober - on 24 September 2024