Didn't think we would get Sept's numbers from Circana so soon.

-54% in the USA with the more expensive SKU having a higher share so fewer units sold.

Next stop: Microsoft's quarterly results.

I feel it’s a very safe bet to say XBSX will pass 40mil (esp w/ GTAVI coming out soon). It’s already at 30mil per VGChartz estimates, I struggle to imagine a situation where XBSX doesn’t pull off at least 10mil more over the remainder of LTD. Frankly, I’m of the belief that XBSX will actly pass 50mil…call me crazy lol. GTAVI will give a big boost, on top of 8-9mil outside of GTAVI, and that’s around >15mil. Not to mention all the exclusives coming next year, and the marketing rights Microsoft will have over titles like CoD. 🤷🏻‍♂️

Crazy!

Despite the big drops year on year you actually expect the XBSX to reach 40 and even 50M ? I can't see it. With the recent drops, 40M will be very hard, let alone 50. GTA VI will sure do some boost, but given the history, how it's times less popular on Xbox than on PS, I don't expect the boost to be so big, maybe 1-2M at most. Given the year is struggling to pass the 4M mark for the XBSX (maybe it will but not much past it), and given the big drops every month, in every region, next year should be maybe the same (just because of GTA VI) and after that I honestly expect something like 2.5M and even 1.5M after that. So 35M should be a given, 37-38M maybe, 40 is a stretch but still not impossible. But 50 out of every possible question... unless Microsoft go crazy and cut the S to 199$ and Series X to 399$, while at the same time PS5 remains 450$ for the digital and 500$ for the disc option.

You say 40m is a stretch and 37-38m is a maybe but the scenario you presented has it reach the former. It'll be at a minimum 32m by the end of December doing about 5m for the year so that much next year would already put it at 37m reaching the maybe and then after the 2.5m and 1.5m it would've sold at least 41m even with drops that large after 2025.

I do mostly agree with what you said about 50m though. I'd say it still has a decent shot of reaching that if the console lasts till the end of 2028 before getting replaced but I don't expect that so mid 40's is my expectation for it.

(you actly called me crazy lol.) You make fair points…I’m curious how previous GTA entries performed btwn Xbox and Sony *at launch*. I suspect long-term figures will def favor PS5 (for the obvious reason that more ppl will own a PS5, and PS Plus subscribers may receive it for free later down the line just as with GTAV), though I could see launch figures around 3:1 PS5:XBSS/X, with more Xbox systems moved than PS5 (due entirely to the affordability of Xbox, and the U.S. love for Xbox & GTA).

I am still doubting the power of xbox at this moment to do 2M in the remaining 3 months, and reaching 5M for the year.. It should do ~200k for October, and with selling 69% for the year globally to this point (2.9M to 4.2M), I expect that trend to be somewhat the same till the end of the year, therefore, 400-500k for November, and maybe another 800-900k for December, which in return means something like 4.4 - 4.5M which is also around 65-70% of the previous year - 7.5M. And so with the same numbers about the next year (again just because of the GTA boost, if it actually launches next year), It should put it at around 36M for me. Then it should have 2-3M more left in the tank. 40m is somewhat likely. I can see it go both ways of course, short of 40M or barely reaching it. But anything above that is very unlikely at this point, as I said, unless Microsoft surprise us with something big.

Yes, because you said so!

Previous GTA entries .. let's see, the trilogy from PS2 era we don't count as it was exclusive for the first year, and it's performance compared to the PS2 was abysmal. Then it was the GTA IV. This was the most equal one where it sold almost on par on both systems.. however 360 was almost on par with PS3 as well. Then it's the GTA V, at launch the ratio was 2:1 I think, or something like that, the sales of the consoles were also at the same ration. For the month of september 2013 you had PS3 doubling the 360. Then you have PS4 version selling more than 2:1 to the XB1 version. And then the PS5 to XBSX we don't have info for.. All in all with the way this gen is going 2:1 is all but sure, but with the way how hardware sales difference between PS and XB is becoming even bigger than last gen, I bet the ratio will be something like 3:1 for the GTA IV, both software and hardware. So yes xbox will have boost from the GTA VI, but it will be nowhere big as it will be on the PS5. And it won't move so much consoles as it will for the PS5. And as game as big is, I don't expect to move more than 5-6M extra consoles for the PS5, therefore not more than 1-2M for the XBOX. (those I put extra for the period of the calendar year it launches, not just the launch of course. Also I don't think GTA VI will move notable console sales after the holiday season that is after the launch of the game.) Also I think there is a big chance GTA VI will get delayed to 2026, but that is another topic.

GTA is HUGE in europe... I suspect much bigger than in the USA.

So while it will ofc boost the xbox, the impact will be much bigger on the PS side.
Also unlike you, I think with marketing and wanting the best looking GTA (for 2 years until it hits PC),
the PS5pro will have a bigger impact than the Series S (for being cheap) will.

"That much next year" is wishful thinking. There's no indication whatsoever that demand won't keep falling. Instead, the rational thing to do is thinking that the average ~35% YoY fall in sales will continue since it's been a thing for the last 2 years.

So if it finally does 5 million units in 2024. 5 * (1 - 0.35) = ~3.25 million next year.

I don't think there's any way it only does that much across November and December cause even with big drops it'll still do 2m this holiday but we'll see. I guess there's a chance the ports to Playstation will start having a large negative impact.

I was responding to the scenario he presented but that's not the rational thing to do since it's not taking into account that 2025 is looking to be the biggest year for gaming this decade so it'd be very surprising if it only sells 3.25 million next year unless there's a bunch of delays and it turns out to not be that strong of a year. If a very US centric game College Football 25 causes a notable boost the month it comes out then GTA 6 is gonna cause a much bigger one than that and there's all the other games coming out next year including potentially the first COD game this generation to not be cross-gen.

Under 40M is possible, but not likely.
Imho:
Odds of reaching 50M <<<< odds of under 40M < odds of reaching or surpassing 40M.