Will Xbox Series X/S make it to 40 million?

[Norion]

XtremeBG said:

Norion said:

You say 40m is a stretch and 37-38m is a maybe but the scenario you presented has it reach the former. It'll be at a minimum 32m by the end of December doing about 5m for the year so that much next year would already put it at 37m reaching the maybe and then after the 2.5m and 1.5m it would've sold at least 41m even with drops that large after 2025.

I do mostly agree with what you said about 50m though. I'd say it still has a decent shot of reaching that if the console lasts till the end of 2028 before getting replaced but I don't expect that so mid 40's is my expectation for it.

I am still doubting the power of xbox at this moment to do 2M in the remaining 3 months, and reaching 5M for the year.. It should do ~200k for October, and with selling 69% for the year globally to this point (2.9M to 4.2M), I expect that trend to be somewhat the same till the end of the year, therefore, 400-500k for November, and maybe another 800-900k for December, which in return means something like 4.4 - 4.5M which is also around 65-70% of the previous year - 7.5M. And so with the same numbers about the next year (again just because of the GTA boost, if it actually launches next year), It should put it at around 36M for me. Then it should have 2-3M more left in the tank. 40m is somewhat likely. I can see it go both ways of course, short of 40M or barely reaching it. But anything above that is very unlikely at this point, as I said, unless Microsoft surprise us with something big.

I don't think there's any way it only does that much across November and December cause even with big drops it'll still do 2m this holiday but we'll see. I guess there's a chance the ports to Playstation will start having a large negative impact.

Esparadrapo said:

Norion said:

You say 40m is a stretch and 37-38m is a maybe but the scenario you presented has it reach the former. It'll be at a minimum 32m by the end of December doing about 5m for the year so that much next year would already put it at 37m reaching the maybe and then after the 2.5m and 1.5m it would've sold at least 41m even with drops that large after 2025.

I do mostly agree with what you said about 50m though. I'd say it still has a decent shot of reaching that if the console lasts till the end of 2028 before getting replaced but I don't expect that so mid 40's is my expectation for it.

"That much next year" is wishful thinking. There's no indication whatsoever that demand won't keep falling. Instead, the rational thing to do is thinking that the average ~35% YoY fall in sales will continue since it's been a thing for the last 2 years.

So if it finally does 5 million units in 2024. 5 * (1 - 0.35) = ~3.25 million next year.

I was responding to the scenario he presented but that's not the rational thing to do since it's not taking into account that 2025 is looking to be the biggest year for gaming this decade so it'd be very surprising if it only sells 3.25 million next year unless there's a bunch of delays and it turns out to not be that strong of a year. If a very US centric game College Football 25 causes a notable boost the month it comes out then GTA 6 is gonna cause a much bigger one than that and there's all the other games coming out next year including potentially the first COD game this generation to not be cross-gen.

Last edited by Norion - on 25 October 2024