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Norion on 24 October 2024
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XtremeBG said:
firebush03 said:

I feel it’s a very safe bet to say XBSX will pass 40mil (esp w/ GTAVI coming out soon). It’s already at 30mil per VGChartz estimates, I struggle to imagine a situation where XBSX doesn’t pull off at least 10mil more over the remainder of LTD. Frankly, I’m of the belief that XBSX will actly pass 50mil…call me crazy lol. GTAVI will give a big boost, on top of 8-9mil outside of GTAVI, and that’s around >15mil. Not to mention all the exclusives coming next year, and the marketing rights Microsoft will have over titles like CoD.

Crazy!

Despite the big drops year on year you actually expect the XBSX to reach 40 and even 50M ? I can't see it. With the recent drops, 40M will be very hard, let alone 50. GTA VI will sure do some boost, but given the history, how it's times less popular on Xbox than on PS, I don't expect the boost to be so big, maybe 1-2M at most. Given the year is struggling to pass the 4M mark for the XBSX (maybe it will but not much past it), and given the big drops every month, in every region, next year should be maybe the same (just because of GTA VI) and after that I honestly expect something like 2.5M and even 1.5M after that. So 35M should be a given, 37-38M maybe, 40 is a stretch but still not impossible. But 50 out of every possible question... unless Microsoft go crazy and cut the S to 199$ and Series X to 399$, while at the same time PS5 remains 450$ for the digital and 500$ for the disc option.

You say 40m is a stretch and 37-38m is a maybe but the scenario you presented has it reach the former. It'll be at a minimum 32m by the end of December doing about 5m for the year so that much next year would already put it at 37m reaching the maybe and then after the 2.5m and 1.5m it would've sold at least 41m even with drops that large after 2025.

I do mostly agree with what you said about 50m though. I'd say it still has a decent shot of reaching that if the console lasts till the end of 2028 before getting replaced but I don't expect that so mid 40's is my expectation for it.